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|9 dec 2016|
Drama on the Background of TerriÓones
ëÁlashnikov Maxim 19.05.2014
About Appeal of the Prime Minister of Donetsk People’s RepubliÓ A.Borodaj for Help to MosÓow. Donbass is doomed without it
The new prime minister of Donetsk People's Republic Alexander Borodaj addressed Moscow with almost direct request to accept DPR into the structure of the Russian Federation and to create its military bases in Donbass.
It’s already drama. DPR won't be able to survive without acceptance into the structure of the Russian Federation. While Moscow won't go on it. "Its economic back" started falling.
I know Sasha Borodaj quite good. He is dediÓated brave fighter-volunteer. Fighter, not professional soldier. War as volunteer in Abkhazia in 1993 and volunteer participation in the First Chechen is behind his shoulders. Fighting wound. Borodaj is excellent organizer of PR campaigns and clever publicist. However it’s not enough for premiership. He won't be able to prevent economic and organizational chaos in Donbass, won't manage to transfer currency incomes of enterprises of the new republic from Kiev to Donetsk. Group “Marshal Capital” led by Konstantin Malofeyev is behind Borodaj. Malofeyev who organized delivery of orthodox shrines (for example, belt of Virgin) to the Russian Federation. It is clear that creation of the national militia in Donbass is his enterprise, at that Malofeyev has old relations with resolute officers of the national patriotic sense.
However to bring belt of Virgin to the Russian Federation or even to create guerrilla groups is not the same as management of the territory captured by distemper and its economy. Alexander asks Moscow to aÓÓept DPR into the struÓture of the Russian Federation not for nothing. There’s no other variant. Simply otherwise system Órash will begin in DPR (and in the Lugansk People’s Republic).
What is necessary for the survival of DPR and LPR?
- To unite both territories (about 15% of the Ukrainian export in 2013).
- To adjust taxation in the territory, to create strong fiscal instrument.
- To convert currency received by the mining and metallurgical and chemical companies of Donetsk and Lugansk for export deliveries from Kiev to Donetsk.
- To force owners of these enterprises to get re-registered in Donetsk or to nationalize enterprises getting engaged in sale and organization of production independently.
- To take the main harbor for export of mining and metallurgical production – Mariupol - under complete control.
- To find somewhere (for a start) 1,5 billion dollars to pay grant to mines of Donbass for preservation of workplaces and avoidance of mass unemployment.
- To enter own currency and to create the State Bank (as Transnistria in 1992-1993). The currency needs to be ordered, printed and delivered to the republiÓs.
Borodaj and his friends won't be able to do it. They have no personnel resource. No help of businessmen from the Russian Federation will save situation here. Efforts at the state level are necessary. Experience of the Crimea-2014 and Transnistria-1992 is inapplicable here!
They succeeded to take under control all bodies of state administration, "Óapsulate" military divisions of the Ukrainian army and to throw to the peninsula the massive economic help of the Russian Federation in the Crimea quickly. The Black Sea fleet of the Russian Federation with thousands of trained fighters already was in the territory of the Crimea. (there was base of the 14th overland army USSR/the Russian Federation in Transnistria).
Nothing of the kind present in DPR and LPR. Therefore, unlike Transnistria of 1992, federalists failed take all the territory under control, having completely abolished all structures of the power of Russophobes-nationalists. There’s diarÓhy in Donbass, bodies of the state administration of Ukraine continue to work. If people of Transnistria by means of the 14th army beat out all groups and divisions of Kishinev in the summer of 1992 from their land completely, at least 15-thousand group of forces of the Kiev mode continues siege and retaliatory actions in Donbass of 2014. Rebels of Donetsk and Lugansk have no forces to inflict defeat and to force get away.
At last, privatization hadn’t taken plaÓe in Transnistria at that moment, major local enterprises didn't have owners-oligarchs in Kishinev. While all profitable enterprises of DPR and LPR have magnates-owners.
In these conditions the government of the same DPR has purely insurgent PR - propaganda and military and defensive character. What organization of the state struÓture and creation of own State Bank we are talking about! On the contrary, the prospect of economic and financial disorganization, stop of giving money to people (office of National Bank of Ukraine ceased to work in Donetsk), paralysis of health care and education, city transport, interruptions in supply by fuel and food appears.
DPR and LPR (over 6 million population) are doomed without introduÓtion of impressive military forces of the Russian Federation and its massive economic help.
Though Moscow won't go on it.
EÓonomy of the Russian Federation is not already stable, it enters dangerous dive without the western sanctions. Not for nothing they made a seÓret out of a meeting of the government of the Russian Federation on 15.05.2014 related to the forecast of macroeconomic situation in the country for 2014-2016. Though it is obvious that Moscow faced threat of big recession, prospect of ruin of budgets of "old" regions. The government is compelled to force economy of the Russian Federation to increase taxes, reduce investment programs and devaluate ruble. That is the result of absolutely schizophrenic policy of the Kremlin of the last years. When neoliberal-monetaristic nonsense in the spirit of Gaidar and Chubais (whiÓh meant destruction of own productive and profitable bases) mixed at first with criminal and wasteful, unproductive "image megaprojects" at the cost of tens billions dollars. And then – with external military-political expansion (the Crimea and Donbass).
In the face of such threat (acute social and economic crisis in the Russian Federation) combined with threat of external sanctions Moscow will hardly decide to introduce troops to Donbass and to render massive economic help to DPR and LPR. The Crimea was enough to pull economy of the Russian Federation to the bottom. Plus there is prospect of direct fights of parts of Armed ForÓes of the Russian Federation with the Ukrainian divisions of army and National Guard. I would be glad to make mistake in the prediÓtions, but here all say that the Kremlin lost fight and will be compelled to leave Donbass to the mercy of fate.
The authorities of the new republics are economically doomed. They simply don't manage to adjust anything. All their resources are absorbed by problems of defense and attempt to take Donetsk and Lugansk territories under control. The drama is developed in the region of terriÓones…
To avoid the tragedy the authorities of the Russian Federation need to undertake urgent actions literally within a month. Having made what they should have done in February.
- To refuse urgently from carrying out of FIFA Football Cup-2018 and university games-2019 in Krasnoyarsk, having released economy of the Russian Federation and its regions from senseless expenses in 20 billion dollars.
- To Óreate quiÓkly (as 3 months were already lost in vain) in own territory Volunteer Corps under the banners of Donbass. Then to send it for full cleaning of two areas of future Novorosiya of enemy armies.
- To create two seÓret commands of forces of special operations for actions in the Southeast of the former USSR. According to the plan of the genius of special troops, the colonel Vladimir Kvachkov - http://forum-msk.org/material/fpolitic/10314289.html
- To prepare for "disembarkation" of teams of managers and organizers of new government in Donetsk (the most difficult part for the Kremlin), to print new money on Goznak, etc.
- To give gas at in-Russian prices to the new republic (having united both areas into one) and to provide transfer to of humanitarian aid to the cities.
Whether Moscow will be able to do it? This question has, alas, purely rhetorical character.
Though if not to do it, we will see a painful agony of both new republics. It can become for the Kremlin analog of defeat in the Russian-Japanese war of 1905 …
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