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|19 nov 2017|
Country Needs New Organization of Energetics, Power-Saving and Clever Authorities
Kalashnikov Maxim 24.10.2006
In the opinion of the former deputy minister of fuel and power of the country (as well as ex-chairman of board of directors of RAO Unified Energy System of Russia) Victor Kudrjavy the state should undertake emergency measures for prevention of approaching "electric disaster" - shortages of generating capacities. To do it is necessary to reorganize the branch and to remove Chubajs's team from its management. Its impossible to avoid shortages of the electric power, Victor Vasilevich considers. Chubajs and his command failed having admitted deficiency of generating capacities. The last winter power supply systems in Moscow, Petersburg and Tyumen worked on a limit, in preemergency regime. This winter another 17 regions will appear to be on a limit if frosts will exceed 20 degrees. In 2006 85 percent of new consumers failed to connect to the system of the centralized electrosupply. It is necessary to enter new capacities but it will take several years. Though A.Chubajs has achieved that the state promised him 2,1 trillion roubles (78 billion dollars), there is no guarantee that his team can use them efficiently. Reform of Unified Energy System of Russia according to Chubajs suffers crash: capital investments, as well as in the USSR, is provided by the state not by private investors.
- Because of shortage of capacities in 2006 we lost 1,5 trillion roubles of gross national product. The Russian Fedaration takes a risk to lose 7.5 trillion for a five-years period if current trends will be kept. Especially if because of shortage of electricity or system accidents disconnection will touch compressor and pump stations of "Gazprom" on Yamal, - Victor Kudrjavy says:
- Chubajs presented to the president V.Putin ostensibly balanced investment program "Unified Energy System of Russia" for 2006-2010 (21.8 million kW). Our analysis has shown that it does not overcome deficiency of capacities: input of new lags behind old ones on 8,3 million kW. Besides, management "Unified Energy System of Russia" obviously inflates expenses. Chubajs asked for 78 billion dollars for five years. It turns out that one watt of capacity will cost 3685 dollars in view of infrastructure and 1645 dollars without it. At the same time the cost of construction of power stations working on gas, corner and the HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION in Canada makes 600, 1200 and 1500 dollars for one kW. Heat electric generation plant which the Canadian company "SNSLavalin" proposed to build in 2006 in Moscow would cost 876$е per kW. If to consider that 80 percent of entering under Chubajs's plan of capacities will work on gas, unreasonable inflating of expenses on the program is approximately 300-320 milliards roubles.
Besides if to compare everything to the Soviet period, it is possible to notice: at approximately similar five years' investments in the USSR were under construction twice more capacities!
In opinion of our interlocutor, its the state that should be busy with struggle with energy crisis. It should begin with organization of the matter. For nothing good will come out in the condition of the present anarchy.
It is impossible to give huge investment money to the management of "Unified Energy System of Russia". In fact it is impossible to be engaged in construction of new capacities and current management of power. Besides, among Chubajs's people there is no one who would have experience in construction of large energy objects - or even successful monitoring of such constructions.
First of all, it is necessary to restore the ministry of power, - V.Kudrjavy says. - Present Russias Industry and Energy Ministry busy with eight other branches at once is powerless to be engaged with fuel-energy complex. Besides, there are no competent experts on Fuel and Energy Complex.
Secondly, the country should accept new plan of State Commission of Electrification of Russia - Long-term strategy of development of power of Russia where the terms of input of new objects will be appointed, sources of financing specified, suppliers of the main equipment known. It needs the concept of fuel maintenance of the country - with the right of authorities to limit export of this or that kind of fuel in case of position menacing to national safety is necessary.
Thirdly, it is necessary to make use of the Soviet experience of the beginning of 1960th when construction of new power stations was entrusted to the separate ministry which was also engaged in foreign construction. Such, so to say, Ministry of ElectroConstruction should be headed by superprofessional and its necessary to control the efficiency of charges of the department. I think that for financing of construction of new stations and realization of innovations in branch is necessary to create Power investment fund at the government of the Russian Federation. Then we can achieve the maximal volumes of input of new capacities, the greatest feedback from put by the state capital. Otherwise we simply at own expense shall enrich a narrow circle of businessmen.
Fourthly, it is necessary to integrate present power supply systems having made so that they cover several regions at once. So we shall achieve decrease in costs on management and service, we shall improve financial condition of affiliated companies to "Unified Energy System of Russia ".
Fifthly, it is necessary to encourage merge of the power companies with fuel ones. So that electric power industry would care of the fuel base and save means for investments into construction of capacities. In the Europe, for example, German "E.ON" was united with "Rurgaz" and "RWE" bought up collieries and cuts in Germany, the USA and the republic of South Africa. And what do we have? Powermen are even interested in the increase by the suppliers of the prices for fuel: there appear more opportunities to earn money.
But what could be done if the crisis is still inevitable? If the shortage of electricity begins today but we have to wait input of new capacities for several years?
Victor Kudryavy is convinced that except for the state power station should be built by other investors. The principle should be the following: if you have constructed new capacities you could receive some certain years of tax exemption and corresponding tariffs. (For example, if in the USA the investor builds the station working more effectively than the local power companies authorities for the certain time give him the right to deliver electricity on the favourable tariff so that the investor could "beat off" investments). The state will get occupied by the objects of strategy importance and private investors will plug tight places. Besides in the shortest terms only the state policy should be wise.
Besides it is necessary to get busy with energy saving urgently. To save one kW of capacity is - three-five times cheaper than to input the same capacity. In the Russian Federation where specific energy demand increased in one and a half time in comparison with economy of the USSR - enormous reserves for economy. For this purpose is necessary to work out "Law about Energy Saving" having provided it with real mechanisms of embodiment of so necessary to the country policy. So, it is necessary to stimulate power companies to invest money first of all not in the construction of new power plants but in energy-saving technologies.
- For example, the life compelled Dagenergo headed by Gamzat Gamzatov to act like this. When Dagestan appeared to be cut off the Russian Federation for four years by the rebellious Chechen Republic, - Victor Vasilevich told us. Gamzatov suffered great expenses to buy expensive economic lamps. The quantity of money which was spent for it was equal to the sum spent on preparation for winter. But the republic could survive having avoided accident of power supply and out-of-limit rise of tariffs. Now it is necessary to put it on a lawful, institutional basis everywhere.
There is also another method known to the American practice: original "virtual power stations" created by businessmen-investors in energy-saving technologies. How it is done? Authorities say to the companies: "To put new power station in our region is impossible: the ecology is on a limit, the ground is expensive, we dont have enough water, its too far to carry fuel. But there are reserves for energy saving. We will play openly: here at the enterprises of region specific energy demand is of the same level with Japanese one, here on the American level and there its awful. Invest your money in energy-saving. Thus saved fuel will be yours for some years - you can sell it. Saved power can be sold by you, not by the local power company. For record terms Americans using such policy managed to release capacities in 32 million kW! While Chubajs wants for five years to construct 21,8 million kW.
Today in the Russian Federation is not profitable to be engaged in energy-saving. Lets imagine that I will construct on thermal power station-21 starting turbine. I shall receive additionally 15 megawatt not increasing consumption of gas. But saved fuel becomes at once the property of "Gazprom"! And Luzhkov will lower at once the tariff for station-innovator. It is unprofitable to be engaged with it today, as you can understand. But if to create normal conditions - it is possible to make a power miracle in Russia. Especially if authorities will start to send new consumers to those stations that are busy with power saving or to the companies created virtual stations. In fact those are they who save it, not "Mosenergo". Today a lot of power saving technologies are stored up in the country, there are a lot of such technologies of foreign origin. If the state can start in the near future real mechanisms of such business the Russian Federation has chances to pass the difficult period with the least losses...
Thus, the reader, a dangerous challenge rises before the country. Power accident approaches inevitably. Whether the state can prevent it? In fact theres nothing unreal and fantastic in the measures proposed.
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