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In Three Years Extraction of Oil in Russia Will Stop Growing. Stagnation Will Last up to 2015
Roeva Natalya 12.07.2007
International energy agency - International Economic Association - published a survey in which it stated that already in three years the volume of oil extraction in the Russian Federation would stop growing and stagnation would continue minimum till 2015.
According to forecast of International Economic Association, there will not be also expansions of capacities of oil extracting in Iran, Iraq and Venezuela and oil refining objects in Nigeria with capacity of 500 thousand barrels which are closed for nearly a year will not open within five years. As political scientist Vladimir Filin believes, "great power powers" have no need to increase volumes of oil extracting as "these countries are not in a condition to dispose effectively petrodollars coming to their hands. So, Iran, being a big exporter of oil, at the same time is major importer of oil goods as it's not able to create own oil refining.
Venezuela acquires expensive for petrodollars military toys all over the world from China to Belarus which are not necessary to it and provides billion cost "brotherly aid" to revolutionary modes in Bolivia and Cuba.
And the Russian Federation puts petrodollars in the jug of stabilization fund situated in the USA or, as it uses to be recently, puts them in frankly corruption projects like development of nanotechnologies or preparations of Sochi Olimpiad-2014".
As experts from International Economic Association consider, in Russia growth of volume of oil recovery can stop approximately in 2010-2012, stagnation will proceed till 2015. Thus by 2010 the extraction of oil in Russia will be reach 10.6 million barrels a day - in the first quarter of 2007 this index made up 9.9 million barrels. By 2012 it will reduce up to 10.5 million barrels a day.
Thus Russian authorities consider, that 9.9 million barrels a day is possible to extract at the inertial script of development of the economy. And at moderately optimistical - 10.3 million barrels.
International Economic Association waits for the high growth of parameters in 2007-2008 from the project "Sakhalin1", Vankorsky deposit of "Rosneft", projects of "Lukoil" in Timan-Pechora province and in the northern part of Caspian Sea. In 2009-2011 the significant gain, predictably, will be received due to "Rosneft", "Surgutneftegaz", TNK-BP and "Russneft", if it won't be, of course, taken away from Michael Gutseriev in the Eastern Siberia.
At the same time, "uncertain investment climate in Russia and limited capacities in the sphere of drilling and service of deposits instill fears in relation to the successful realization of new projects", - they worry in International Economic Association.
It's possible to read about universal tendencies in oil sphere in British "Financial Times", which author - Havie Blus. The article has the heading: In Five Years the World Will Come Across Oil Collapse
PS. In the meantime on July, 10th the British "Sunday Times" published the application of the vice-president of board of "Gazprom" Alexander Medvedev which runs that since 2011 the Russian consumers will pay for gas as much as it is done by many of foreign ones, minus taxes and transport services. By estimations of experts, it can become a crushing blow on a standard of living of the population of the country. "Novie Izvestia" writes about it.
There is nothing sensational in the application about the growth of internal tariffs, however, this time Medvedev has not stipulated that growth of tariffs will concern only industrial consumers as it has been planned earlier. Press-service of "Gazprom" has informed that it is discrepancy of translation and increase of tariffs up to a world level does not expect usual citizens.
Other detail promulgated by Medvedev is additional gains which "Gazprom" can receive after increase of tariffs: it should make up 32 billion dollars.
If in 2006 the profit of monopolist has made 517 billion roubles (or 20 billion dollars) from which only five billions approximately are from sales inside of Russia (at that more than 1 billion gave consumers of household gas), additional profit of 32 billion dollars predicted by Alexander Medvedev exceeds the present more than 5 times.
It means, that in 2011 the internal price for gas will be more than 250 dollars for one thousand cubic metre. It is really similar to the world prices but it's twice as high as promised by the state.
The head of the department of regulation of gas and oil branch of Federal Service on tariffs Dmitry Volkov informed "Novie Izvestia" that the prices for gas could really fly up average to 200 dollars or even higher. However, in opinion of the economists, even the growth of tariffs for gas planned officially will become a hard blow on the population.
Experts consider that the rise of prices for gas can become excessive burden for the Russian consumers whose incomes grow even more slowly than real rates of inflation. First of all, the growth of tariffs for gas automatically excites inflation and for the second, it is necessary to understand, before to raise tariffs, whether enterprises are ready to pass to other kinds of fuel. Considering these social factors the state often subsidizes understating tariffs in the western countries.
Meanwhile, political scientist Ruslan Saidov considers, that one of the reasons of the growth of tariffs for gas planned is reduction of its consumption inside of the country to liberate as many as possible volumes for export to the countries of the Europe."The Kremlin, - the political scientist speaks, - got a lot of obligations on export of gas abroad. However, "Gazprom" does not invest development of new deposits, meanwhile the old ones, still Soviet, already passed peak of extraction. In these conditions, in view of the obligations on export taken, the only way to withstand gas balance is - to achieve reduction of consumption of natural gas inside the country as for the industrial-energy needs and the household".
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