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Michael Delyagin: You Shouldn’t Exhaust Yourself with Idle Expectations of Changes to the Best

Michael Delyagin: You Shouldn’t Exhaust Yourself with Idle Expectations of Changes to the Best
15.01.2013

Source: Mir Novostey

- What will be with ruble in 2013 – what are your forecasts?

- Seasonal New Year's strengthening of ruble, as usually, will pass. It will weaken - simply because it remains the only way of maintenance of economy, though it will happen not evenly, in waves with periodic partial strengthening. General annual depreciation will make, I think, about 10%.

- Whether there will be essential depreciation of ruble? Whether devaluation is expected?

- Most likely, the world won't break into depression this year, it means that oil will be rather expensive and the power will have more money than it can imagine. The international reserves will remain high allowing to avoid devaluation, while indignation of people because of treatment them as a drudge, refusal to develop and theft will amplify not allowing to joke with devaluation.

- What about dollar and euro?

- Most likely, present "swing" will proceed in a range from 1,20 to 1,38 dollars for euro. Conversations about crash of Europe remain the same way actual and inexact, as at the time of Spengler.

- In what currency in general is better to save money now? Some advise euro, some consider that dollar is the most reliable currency, some in general claims that it is better to buy Japanese yens, they are stable in general. What will you advise?

- From the point of view of stability the best way – in the Chinese yuan, though the savings have to be liquid: You should have opportunity to use them quickly enough. It forces the European part of the country to choose between dollar and euro; within a year it is better to store money equally both in euro and in dollar - certainly, it’s necessary to watch situation sharp-sightedly because probability of unpleasant surprises increases threateningly.

The only thing is that you shouldn't keep dollars in hundred-dollar notes, in case of technical default of the USA they can turn into garbage.

- What economic behavior is the most reasonable for citizens in this connection? To spend money or to save? To save money in home currency at home or in a bank on the card?

- To arrange "fiddle while Rome burns" is a big mistake because plague can be overgone and what will you do then without money?

It’s the same way wrong to reduce everything to money: it’s not the main thing in life - I tell it as the economist. The main anti-recessionary strategy has three main directions. The first: to have maximum friends - both on number and on variety (as they say, "friend in court is better than a penny in purse”, money can be taken away, while friends will remain) and social communications as a whole. The second: well-bred (people often forget about it) children – you won’t have other pension. The third: maximum flexibility, adaptability and attentiveness at each separately taken moment.

As to the money – to save. Within 700 thousand rubles – in the State Banks, better not on currency accounts (if so, taking into account possible devaluation, it’s better to save only 500 thousand rubles). The rest - if you have it - in euro or dollars in the maximum reliable place where robbers won't find your savings and from where in a minute of thirst of unreasonable consumption you will get them not at once yourself. It is possible to make investments into gold coins, but you should remember: their liquidity isn't absolute (in particular, the slightest scratches will sharply reduce their price).

You shouldn't invest savings into business and lend (except to friends): environment as a whole won’t get improved. Buy consumer goods if they are necessary for work, not pursuing novelty (which is often hasn’t worked out enough), but choosing the most reliable, simple and cheap in service.

If you seriously think of emigration – final decision, whatever it is, should be accepted till the end of this summer, it could happen that later it will be already late (taking into account time for its organization).

Besides: to strengthen health at most, while it’s still possible, instead of destroying it. To learn to process information and make decisions; created in the Soviet Union "Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZA)" gives quite good skills for this purpose. If there are distinct prospects you can quickly receive corresponding skills.

Besides you should understand that next years will be – both for us and for other mankind – time of complex deterioration of a situation so you shouldn’t exhaust yourself with idle expectation of changes to the best.

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