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|29 mar 2017|
Colonization of a Raw Slug
Кalashnikov Maxim 19.11.2013
What will happen if Turkey and India will join the Customs Union? The Kremlin can't get integrated with Belarus…
I laughed a lot when learned about initiative of comrade Nazarbayev about entry of the Turks and Indians into the Customs Union. It’s clear thing that it isn’t worth the effort to trust the words of Post-Soviet clowns - "leaders". Sometimes they say such things that it makes sick to hear. Though if to imagine that Turkey and India will after all enter present Customs Union, what will come of it?
It will end in simple colonization of a raw slug – RF.
The end of this could be only one: RF will become huge sales market for the Turkish and Indian goods and raw material province of young industrial countries. As soon as power of Yeltsin – Putin is full zero in the sphere of management of the national economy. It turned the Russian Federation into big raw slug which has neither strong muscles, nor canines, nor armor. To be honest, it has no backbone. The system works well, when it concerns dispersal of demonstrations, sending oppositionists to prison, power use for personal enrichment. We have zero when we talk about carrying out of reasonable economic policy, active industrial course.
For example, as the state modern Turkey is much more effective and more competitive, than thieves' quasi-state called the Russian Federation. Though Turkish bureaucrats could hardly be called crystal honest analogs of the Prussian officials of the times of Bismarck. However Turkey under leadership of Recep Erdogan overcame economic crisis of the beginning of the 2000s and caught up with Russia by gross domestic product per capita. Erdogan lowered rates for credits for real sector twice, light industry got developed under his management. Turkey skillfully supports the industrialists and acts today as the main beneficiaries of the Customs Union. Their light industry (including expansion of underground productions in the Russian Federation) successfully gets control over local market. The Turks provide their producers subsidy and give materials for production by installments. While the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation has no money (five billion rubles) for support of textile cluster in the Ivanovo region.
I don't speak about that Turkey allures the Turkic youth from the Russian Federation and all fragments of the USSR into the higher education institutions, that it invites scientists not only from Central Asia, but also from Bashkiria, Tataria, Yakutia. It forms group of support with all its might. While the Russian Federation can't allure youth to study even from Ukraine.
So, in case Turkey joins the Customs Union the Russian Federation will have approximately the same destiny as Ukraine after present trade "integration" with EU. The Turkish industrialists, having cheaper credits for production at home and help of much more capable state, will simply turn the Russian Federation into a colony for sale of their goods. The same as the British once made India the region for sale of production of textile Manchester. The Russian Federation is already becoming the market for the Belarusian agriculture car, they confidently take possession of the market with their quality and ability of Minsk to sell equipment on credit. At that the Kremlin doesn't mind it.
There will be the same situation with the Turkish light industry which will have opportunity to trade duty-free here. Naturally, the Turks will continue to extort billion dollars from the Russian Federation in the approved manner – through involvement of vacationers to their resorts and expansion of the Turkish construction companies of the Russian market. Then more difficult production will appear: unlike the Russian Federation Turkey managed to get agreement of the European consumer electronics for production in its enormous "Vestel-city". The Turkish fruits and vegetables will follow: they conquered Georgia.
The Indians will do approximately the same, if they acquire the right of duty-free trade here. Not only textiles and vegetables (the Indian cucumbers, for example), but also drugs, electronics and even cars will be imported.
ABSOLUTELY UNSCIENTIFIC FANTASY
Whether it is possible to imagine that in reply the Kremlin provides sale of the Russian planes, helicopters, combines, tractors, vessels to Turkey and India? Lukashenko, for example, restores positions of the Soviet "Traktoroeksport" of the 70s years, his "Belarus" are delivered now to France.
It’s impossible in the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation can't tie even Kyrgyzstan. We give such example: they send dollars to Bishkek (Frunze) instead of paying for the rent of air base for the Russian combines, grabbing the biggest piece of the Kyrgyz market for many years. Recollect also our attempt to deliver Tu-204 to Iran? Instead of granting help by way of export credits and lobbying, the Russian state suggested to trade only through pro-Putin’s intermediaries ("ROE") and to give them such percent from the transaction which made all invention senseless. Where the Turkish official takes care of advancing of the national industry on new markets, the Russian bureaucrat looks only for one thing: how to get profit from the industrialist? Everything gets quashed.
I remember perfectly well how at the beginning of the 2000s the Kremlin missed fine opportunity to arrange production locomotives and airliners Tu-334 in Iran. Today Military Industrial Complex of the Russian Federation loses market of India: ugly work of the state structures in the sphere of military transport aircraft pushed the Indians away (say “bye-bye” to the joint Russian-Indian cargo aviaship!). India doesn't want to buy either our fighters, or our helicopters any more. It complains that it’s impossible to get from Moscow elementary spare parts for earlier bought. Yes, we constructed the nuclear power plant in Kudankulam. While, as I was told by acquaintances from "Atomstroyexport", in case of normal export crediting in India, it would have been possible to construct three times more.
RF is doomed to play a role of colony in the Customs Union. Owing to many reasons. Owing to full incapacity of the state machinery. As it has no sovereign credit and financial system and its Central Bank is colonial structure of FRS of the USA. The industrialist in Russia can't obtain loan for ten years under 3% per annum. Unless it’s possible to talk about credits to get into the Turkish or Indian market? There is no normal state system of support of industrial export in RF: the agency created (JSC EKSAR headed by Peter - the son of ex-prime minister Fradkov – born in 1978) is pity parody to the western analogs. It’s unable to provide low-percentage crediting because it’s not the state structure. While there’s such agency in Canada – EDC. Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI) – in Japan. It’s possible to get help for only three percent from the sum of the export contract, while the Russian "analog" gives credits under much higher percentage. Thus granaries of the Russian Federation simply burst from dollars.
So the matter is in general idiocy, incompetence and "super-monetarism" of the Russian state power. If the Turks will join the Customs Union, they will "swing" white-blue-red state in 98 cases from hundred. They will become colonialists of Russia, having joined senior companions from the USA, China and EU. Every more or less capable state is capable to bite into the slug called the Russian Federation.
They say, Turkey hasn’t confirmed Nazarbayev's statement. Thanks God. As Putin seems to have no objections.
Shirt, if Ankara will suddenly give its consent?
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