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Seven Lean Cows

Seven Lean Cows
Alexander Nagorny, Nikolay Konkov 17.11.2006

Image of the present Russian president as a person who is constantly and almost inexplicably lucky has become bandied. But in fact "the one is lucky who works hard". During Putin’s presidency Russia has gone through explosions of apartment houses in Moscow, accident of Nuclear Submarine "Kursk", "Nord Ost” and Beslan, hundreds other tragedies of less scale. Nevertheless, as a whole it is possible to say that the period of 2000-2006 is quieter rather than "Eltsin’s" 90th.

In many respects it is connected with the fact that Putin’s Kremlin as a shark sucker cozily joined under a power belly of the main shark of the modern world - the United States of America. The prices for oil and gas, basic export "products" of the Russian Federation, have grown during these years approximately in 3-3,5 times. Russia is practically overflowed with "a wave of petrodollars", though its real size appeared to be approximately twice below declared: about half of currency proceeds through various mechanisms were left in banks of "the big American brother”. The rest of the sum was enough to “mend” practically all vital holes in relations of the Federal Bank with regions and “oligarchic” business and even – with the majority of population of the country: “public sector employees” and pensioners.

And now, after American "intermediate elections" on November, 7th quite in a spirit of bible tradition, on change to "seven corpulent" cows-years go "seven lean" ones which are capable to gobble up all this "Putin’s stabilization", not having left even a bone. The full victory of the democratic party which took under control both the House of Representatives (232 places from 435) and the Senate (51 place from 100) means that all the remaining two years of powers republican administration led by G. Bush-junior will appear to be “bound” both inside the country and on the international arena.

It’s not quite clear how in such conditions the policy of the USA will be carried out as the confrontational script between the "good" Congress and the "bad" White House looks not less probable, than the synergic script at which the new legislature cooperates with old executive. Resignation of Minister of Defence Donald Ramsfeld testifies that republicans in every way wish to avoid the confrontational script and are ready to go on serious concessions.

But, as it is known, appetite comes with eating that is why this policy of concessions can bring republicans to a verge of impeachment of the 43rd president of the USA G. Bush-junior. It was already marked that already in May of current year his administration "has handed over" a key post of Minister of Finance to Henry Polson - the chapter closely connected with democratic establishment of “investment” corporation Goldman Sachs. Thereby the White House has undersigned for inadequacy of their long-term financial and strategic rate which foresaw "suffocation" of the basic geopolitic competitors of the USA, first of all the Europe, China and Japan by expensive energy carriers. Now in close and intermediate term prospect the tendency of decrease in the world prices for oil and gas - approximately up to 35-40 dollars for barrel of "oil" or nearly 1,5 times below the present level clearly appears, at simultaneous devaluation of dollar for 25-30% and even more has been showing up.

It is clear that in such conditions rigidly oriented on raw export Russian economy will start to experience significant system difficulties. But the main problem, certainly, will consist not in them, but in strengthening of external pressure upon Russia and the Kremlin which on a number of reasons: ideological, organizational, etc., — will start to lobby the democratic majority of the Congress in close interaction with global information-financial structures.

Problems of "human rights" and "anti-Semitism", "self-determination of nations" and "total corruption" in the Russian Federation can become from background crucial. Activization of "color" processes on perimeter of the Russian borders and "separative" - inside the country, especially on Northern Caucasus also looks quite probable. Therefore a new strengthening of liberally-monetary "Chubays's group" in the government and the Kremlin, promotion of Dmitry Medvedev's candidacy by this group as successor to Putin (the ex-chapter of the president’s administration of the Russian Federation, now a chairman of board of directors of RAO Unified Energy System of Russia – Alexander Voloshin has already “settled” this question in the democratic Center of Karnegi) become real. The same billiard pocket is aimed by the handing over of all Russian positions by Herman Gref during the negotiations with Americans about introduction of the Russian Federation into WTO, including, apparently, absolutely "noneconomic" questions connected with support by the Kremlin of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria.

Special interest future destiny of the prisoner of Krasnokamenskaya penal colony in the Chita area Michael Khodorkovsky acquires special interest. A lot of publications already designates him fast release under pressing of "the American and Israeli friends". To think it over logically one understands that there’s nothing impossible in it, but only in the case that the release of former "oligarch" would pass on the conditions similar to the release of serfs of Russian empire of the sample of 1861. They were given "freedom" without earth and Michael Borisovich would be given, only - without JUKOS. Otherwise too many major bargains of the recent years (including sale-purchases in which not only Roman Abramovich, “Gazprom” and “Rosneft” but also a lot of foreign banks and corporations were involved) would be thrown discredit. And this is, as soldier Suhov said, not probable…

It is enough to say that those days when the American democrats were smashing the American republicans on elective fronts, the Russian oligarches from "Alpha-group" had to give additional 39 billion roubles (almost 1,5 billion dollars) to the budget. It means that Kremlin "security officials" have no way and no need to recede.

The meeting of the government on strategy in the field of power which postponed from the 5th of November to the 22nd is considered as one of the key questions in this collision. If "security officials" led by Fradkov would manage on results of meeting to replace vice-premier Khristenko with their nominee, it would mean not simply important intra-apparatus victory of Sechin and Co, but first of all — effective prospect of their blocking with "the Chinese comrades". After all we live — not in 1999 and alignment of forces on global arena has been significantly changed.

Today the American-Israeli alliance solves in the modern world far not everything and is far not single-handedly. And it gives certain "degree of freedom" for that political choice which should be made by our country in 2007-2008 so that to leave a mouth of "seven lean cows" alive. But this freedom of choice, this unpredictability already in the near future are fraught with the sharpest sociopolitical conflicts - on the ground of both parliamentary and unparliamentary forms of struggle.

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