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"Problem-2008" in Russia Will Be Solved in the Struggle between the Democratic Party of the USA and Chinese-Iranian Alliance

"Problem-2008" in Russia Will Be Solved in the Struggle between the Democratic Party of the USA and Chinese-Iranian Alliance
Surikov Anton 18.12.2006

Events which in the most radical way can affect our future are outlined in Russia and an external world surrounding it. For the first, the unipolar world over which within last 15 years the USA dominated is being ruining before our eyes.

November elections in the Congress showed that American people does not wish to bear any more the costs connected with performance by America its imperial mission. As consequence, a role of the power factor in foreign policy of the USA, especially in view of "Iraq syndrome" ungergoes radical revision is minimal relinquishing its place to more delicate approaches to the settlement of international problems.

It is necessary to expect that Washington at the certain stage will try to shift on the countries of group BRIK (Brazil, Russia, India and China) a part of the responsibility for maintenance of a global stability within the limits of a certain new international system in which the predominating role, according to a plan, is still allocated by the USA. Thus it hardly probable that such system if it is possible to be created will appear steady, first of all because of presence of the American-Chinese antagonism.

Secondly, within 1-2 years the USA, having sufferred military defeat, will leave Iraq and Afghanistan. As a result Iran connected by informal strategic partnership with China de facto annexs occupied by Shiites southern part of Iraq and will automatically turn into dominating force in the region of Persian Gulf. Pakistan under control of special services of which, undoubtedly, will pass the southern part of Afghanistan occupied by Punshutes, in sphere of foreign policy in an even greater degree than now will be oriented on China.

On the other hand, the leading Arabian countries of the Near East – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan actually having lost the American guarantees of safety will be compelled to constrain independently Iranian-Shiite expansion into direction of «Sunnite triangle» of Iraq and fine princedoms of the Gulf.

In its turn, Turkey having faced aversion from the European Union will make greater stress on the Near-Eastern and Caucasian policy. Thus the probability of introduction of Turkish armies to the North of Iraq for the struggle with Kurdish terrorists is quite great.

Conflicts of Israel with Palestin, Lebanon and Syria basing on support of Iran still remain not solved. As a whole, the region of the Near and Middle East will plunge even deeper into condition of chaos which will start to extend in all directions, including us.

Thirdly, formation of contours of the new multipolar world which will provide existence of several centers of force will begin, each of these centers will base on own rocket-nuclear potential.  

If now there are eight states having at their disposal developed rocket-nuclear groupings – the USA, Russia, China, the Great Britain, France, Israel, India and Pakistan, in 5-7 years their number will be doubled due to Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and, probably, Brazil.

The role of China will simultaneously essentially increase, in its political and economic orbit will appear Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, the states of Central Asia, a number of countries of Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, first of all – Venezuela. In such a case Russia or some of its regions in Siberia and in the Far East also can appear in the same orbit.

In such conditions the USA will try to find with China as well as with Iran to find temporal tactical compromises including in the first place – because of the interests it\s not excluded – territories of Russia.

More and more turning into "power" pseudo-empire, irrevocably losing the rests of the Soviet heritage in sphere of the high technology, hi-tech branches of economy, the Russian Federation loses its subjectivity, gradually turns into the object and arena of competition and struggle between the leading world centers of force – old and new. Internal policy of the country becomes more obvious reflection of increasing global opposition, first of all between the USA, on the one hand, and informal alliance of China and Iran, on the other hand.

The so-called Russian elite breaks up. Thus a line of split starts to appear in a greater degree proceeding from a vector of interests of business of these or that economic-bureaucratic groups. Simplifying to a maximum, political orientation of representatives of elite starts to depend on places they have their accounts: still in the West or already in the East and the South.

Reflection of such state of things became accelerated but still far from finishing structurization of hidden “parties” inside authority in threashold of the year 2008: two proAmerican “parties of successors”, “Chinese-Iranian”, “party of the third term” and numerous “parties” of regional and national bureaucracy in the subjects of the Federation.  

Between “parties" mentioned the struggle about the ways of settlement of the "problem-2008" becomes aggravated as it was in 1999 which passed in the open phase of information wars, large-scale provocations and physical liquidations. But in 1999 inconditions of the unipolar world and obvious prospect of coming to power in the USA of the Republican Party, internal Russian struggle for the authority bore characteristics of casting in which the role of the key arbitrator was carried out by Washington, to be more precise neoconservatives and future “group Cheney – Ramsfeld” rising by the time to the tops of power.

In a present situation of the coming multipolar world at least two became key arbitrators: Democratic party of the USA and the Chinese-Iranian alliance. Therefore struggle promises to be more fierce, durative, long-term. It won’t end in March, 2008, only its first stage will come to the end.

In view of what is said the answer to a question of how, if it is possible in general, to restore subjectiveness of Russia, not to admit its transformation into arena of settlement of geostrategic contradictions between the leading world centers of forces becomes crucial.  

The answer to this question in all countries should be given by the elite ruling there and forming adequate to the existing threats political and economic rate. But the present Russian so-called elite which has generated during the ruin of own state and plunder of public estate, is getting means and resources to the West out of the country and now even to the East and South, is not capable to do it by convention.

Instead of politics we have everywhere “breaks" and PR. Instead of responsible statesmen - the corrupted bureaucrats and greedy political consultants. Both Kremlin political consultants and pseudo-oppositional who take into consideration nothing but "lettuce" and measuring others according to their arshin, behind all events including fundamental tendencies of development see only mercenary motive, reasons of careerism or someone's self-advertisement.

And if so, we shouldn’t obviously wait for anything good in future.
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