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Spring in Kiev Promises Severe Winter in Russia

Spring in Kiev Promises Severe Winter in Russia
Baranov Anatoly 01.03.2014

Events in Kiev threw out jogs and jumps in Sochi to the media space periphery. It was antique Hellas where wars stopped for the period of the games, Ukraine is not Greece. Apparently, no matter what party wins in Kiev, the Ukrainian statehood will be transformed in the most unpredictable way. Personal associations - Gulyaypole, its even surprising that they carry portraits of Bandera and Shukhevich on Maidan, not of Nestor Ivanovich Makhno, the father of direct democracy in Ukraine.

Analogies to Russia aren't exact and extremely tense. Ukraine didn't endure the tragedy of 1993, more or less consecutive bourgeois democracy was created on the base of the post-Soviet space there, while typical bourgeois dictatorship, "vertical" periodically striving to turn into frank fascism was formed on the blood of 1,5 thousand defenders of House of the Soviets in the Russian Federation. Ukraine decided to run into fascism 20 years later and, certainly, in absolutely different situation.

It’s been happening there more softly, than in the northern gloomy Moscow of 1993, there are already victims and it’s possible to rub them into the nose of the USA and the European Union, but thanks God victims don’t count thousands, there are just several people from both parties. There are a lot of wounded, but generally from traumatic, not fighting weapon. Everything is very sad considering possible prospects, but tanks don't shoot at people, tracers don’t fly over the heads and only few saw fighting weapon in hands of the military personnel. While...

Though Kiev is declared closed city, subway and public transport doesn't work, communication is blocked, so, certain scenario is looking through it.

Now let’s connect Soluyanov's yesterday's statement about allocation of the next 2-milliard tranche to Ukraine and foggy hints that there’s no suitable Cabinet which could guarantee something... It’s quite possible to assume that allocation of the next tranche was agreed with certain requirements, say, "to bring order" on the streets of Kiev similar to the Russian...

There is such feeling that Yanukovych doesn’t control it, may be not ministers as well, stylistics is familiar, it’s not even Moscow, but Minsk... Yanukovych disappeared, he doesn't contact heads of the European states. It is clear that he as usual waits. If tomorrow the center of Kiev will be mopped up and "excess people" will be arrested, he will make mournful face and tell that there was no other way out – look, the staff of the office of "Party of Regions", police officers are killed... If Maidan will resist (that is the Ukrainian security officers will appear to be absolutely incapacitated), he will act as last time, he will accuse the subordinates of arbitrariness, will promise "to scrutiny the matter"... Of course, nobody will believe, but the art to float in shit is mastered by the president masterfully.

In any case, Ukraine tomorrow will be different from the one it was yesterday. For some time we will have to write the words "Ukrainian statehood" in commas. Then something will be formed. Then.

These events are projected on Russia in the most unpleasant way. At any outcome attempt to freeze everything is looked transparently. Rigid sentences. Arbitrariness of so-called "law-enforcement" system is present, the right isn't. Restriction of freedoms to the lowest limit.

As the reasons of events of 2011-12 aren't eliminated and are even strengthened, and since 2014 the country passed from weak economic growth to obvious recession, the Russian remake of the Kiev events promises very heavy prospect. Though every prospect is better, than its absence.

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