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Ukraine Enters the Third Gas War with RF

Ukraine Enters the Third Gas War with RF
06.04.2014

Ukraine is ready to buy the Russian gas at price of $268 for 1 thousand cubic meters, the Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk declared. "Political pressure won't succeed, we won't agree with the price 500 dollars… Ukraine is ready to buy natural gas at the price which was established in the beginning of the current year and it is 268 dollars (for 1 thousand cubic meters). It is acceptable and balanced market price. We are ready to carry out all calculations for previous supply of gas and we wait for answer from "Gazprom", - the prime minister told opening government meeting on Saturday in Kiev.

The question is different: whether Ukraine can afford itself NOT to buy the Russian gas?

Apparently it can't though Yatsenyuk's cabinet makes conscientious attempts, Europe is ready to resell Ukraine back the remains it has. Expecting warm season Yatsenyuk can make "gang signs", we shouldn’t forget that Ukraine has serious saved up stocks in underground storages of Gas Transmission Network remaining there since the time of Tymoshenko.

Literally few days ago the same Yatsenyuk said that if Russia would call price in 500 dollars, Ukraine would pay 500. If something changed during last few days? Yes, the weather changed, it became warmer. Yatsenyuk’s cabinet which will finish work after May, 25 isn’t interested in the needs of industry. Though one can trace connection of the cabinet with the Dnepropetrovsk clan leaning on industrial resources, but natives of the Western Ukraine don't understand anything about industry and Yatsenyuk has no time and need to read lectures to them.

Certainly, Miller, our super - professional from a pipe, fooled situation away, though he started well, saying that Russia rescued economy of Ukraine for 15 billion dollars, it is quite good to hear at least something in gratitude, except "Murder the Russians!" He finished badly, he didn't break resistance and Yatsenyuk used remains of the European gas.

It’s, of course, doesn’t matter, if our main chiefs will sell our gas to Ukraine at the price of 500 dollars or only 268, we won’t get anything from it. While they also don’t care about it, they have already built palaces everywhere all over Russia (it’s enough to see Millerhof on Istra), while palaces abroad are temporarily forbidden for purchase.

The precedent is interesting: price is set not by the seller, but by the buyer. I pay what I said and that’s all. He simply selects necessary to him amount of gas at the convenient to him price from the general European stream. Say, in European way. Ukraine is Europe!

Today it is politically unprofitable to deliver gas to Ukraine from Russia in general, neither at the price of 500 dollars, nor even at one thousand. Russia reminds ensign who speaks to the recruit: "It isn't important what you will dig out there, it is important to me, that you will be tired!" By and large situation that occurred during previous "gas war" when Russia had to pump additional gas into Gas Transmission Network on the basis of the Ukrainian selection is non-reproducible. Europe receives less gas? Well, ask from Ukraine, it’s yours now... They can place own controllers at the entrance to Ukraine to know how much gas went to Gas Transmission Network exactly. Generally, familiar situation, but only with absolutely other polarity as Russia shouldn't make excuses in front of Europe as gas vanishes somewhere in the European territory where the Russian Federation has no access.

Agreements to which Yatsenyuk refers were signed with absolutely different government and in absolutely different situation. Let’s say, Russia used gas to pay for "parking" of the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea, which is now as though Russian. It would seem strange that the fleet is placed in the Russian Sevastopol, while Russia still pays for it to Kiev. With the same success one could refresh question of payment of tribute to the Crimean khanate.

Earlier Russia was afraid to push Ukraine away as a result of excessively rigid position, now there is nothing to be afraid of, all bad already happened.

Yatsenyuk's cabinet will live perfectly well without the Russian gas till May elections. The more so the treasury is empty and there’s no money to pay neither at the price of 500, nor at 268. While next president and his cabinet will face gas problem to the utmost. The more so the Kremlin can refuse to recognize its legitimacies, in particular because of the Crimea which won’t participate in elections. Then Kiev will find itself in front of the problem of which people on Maidan dreamed with such enthusiasm - complete separation from the Russians when Ukraine has nothing in general behind boundary posts. Big black spot on the globe of Ukraine. Neither gas, nor oil, nor charging for the nuclear power stations developing half of the electric power in the country. Nor work for one million guest workers. Nor east market for the Ukrainian goods, from canned food Chumak to accessories for aircraft industry. Instead completely open European market where the Ukrainians are waited with carnivorous smile...

By and large, it is economic war to which Ukraine is hardly ready. Though it will conduct it in the interests of the West, it doesn’t have own interest any more.

А.B.

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