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|10 dec 2016|
Reduction of Strategic Armaments Proclaimed by Medvedev and Obama - Pure Fiction
Аnton Surikov 08.07.2009
From joint statement of the presidents of Russia and the USA: Each party will reduce and limit strategic and offensive arms so that in 7 years after coming into force of the Agreement, further marginal levels for strategic carriers would lie within 500-1100 units and for warheads connected with them within 1500-1675 units.
To understand present condition of strategic offensive potentials of the USA and Russia, having avoided thus reproaches in "divulging state secrets" from the part of FSB is possible to use information from site АPN.ru:
- Land component of strategic offensive forces of the USA for today makes 450 intercontinental ballistic missiles "Minitmen-3". 350 pcs from them have 3 fighting parts each, 100 pcs - only one. Sea component totals 14 rocket submarines of "Ohio" type, each of which has 24 ballistic missiles "Trajdent-2" D-5. The most part of such rockets after signing of the Treaty on Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms (SOA) is equipped by four warheads. Aviation component includes 20 strategic bombers В-2 and 93 В-52Н. Besides 87 bombers В-1В are intended for solving of problems of not strategic character though were initially created as strategic. Each plane V-52N is capable to bear from 12 to 20 cruise missiles of air basing, В-2 and В-1В are equipped with only aviation bombs (including nuclear and guided bombs).
It follows from this that under Agreement the USA would not really reduce anything, except for a quantity of become outdated IBM and heavy bombers.
- Condition of Strategic nuclear forces of Russia is the following:
Land component of Strategic Nuclear Forces of Russia for today includes 97 IBM UR-100N (RS-18B) (with 6 warheads per each), 75 IBM R-36МUTTH (RS-20B) (with 10 warheads), 189 mobile complexes of IBM RS-12М "Poplar" (with 1 warhead), 15 mobile and 50 mine IBM RS-12М2 "Poplar-M" (with 1 warhead), only 426 IBM with 1586 warheads. There are also some tens IBM UR-100N in warehouses.
Sea component of Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation includes 6 rocket underwater cruisers of strategic purpose pr. 667BDR and 667BDRP, each bears 16 ballistic rockets. The real quantity of ballistic rockets R-29R makes today 81 pcs, R-29RМ - 92 pcs. Thus in total 173 ballistic rockets bear 611 warheads. IBM of Special Purpose SN 667BDR were constructed in 1976-82, they, as well as their ballistic rockets R-29R basically worked out their resource and in the near future would be, obviously, deduced from Navy structure. Construction of 3 new IBM of Special Purpose SN 955 are being carried out in the Russian Federation today, however tests of ballistic rocket "Bulava" intended for them meanwhile pass extremely unsuccessfully (only 1 start-up from 10 was completely successful).
Aviation component of Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation totals 15 strategic bombers Tu-160 and 64 Tu-95MS6 and МS16. Each Tu-160 bears 12 long-range cruise missiles, Tu-95MS6 - 6 12 long-range cruise missiles, Tu-95MS16 - 16 12 long-range cruise missiles. Now 32 planes variants МS6 and МS16 are registered formally in Air Forces of Russia, thus, total number of cruise missiles of air basing on 79 bombers makes 884 pieces. In the near future Tu-95MS will be gradually deduced from the structure of Air Forces in connection with resource working-out.
- Configuration of Strategic Nuclear Forces of Russia by 2017 is obvious enough. It is defined by natural processes of irreversible degradation which will lead to reduction of Strategic Nuclear Forces approximately to 1000-1200 warheads irrespective of presence or absence of the Agreement with the USA. There would remain approximately 60 IBM "Poplar-M", 4-5 RSC of Strategic Purpose pr. 667BDRM with 64-80 ballistic rockets (256-320 warheads), 15 Tu-160 (120 cruise missile of air basing). Others fighting items will be "got" at the expense of input of three RSC of Strategic Purpose SN 955 with ballistic rockets "Bulava", about 50-60 IBM of Strategic Purpose S-24 (slightly modified mobile IBM "Poplar-M" with three warheads on each rocket) and also at the expense of about 30 old IBM UR-100N from warehouses.
- Thus, quantitative structure of Strategic Nuclear Forces of Russia owing to natural reasons (irreversible loss of ability to large-lot production of complicated types of arms and military technology by Russia) will be in one and a half time less, than the new agreement allows. In other words, reduction of strategic armaments proclaimed by Medvedev and Obama - pure fiction having speaking about "reloading" exclusively propaganda value.
- Under the new agreement (as well as all former agreement) the American cruise missiles of sea basing (Russia practically doesn't have such) are not taken into account. As it is known, primary 18 nuclear submarines with ballistics rockets "Ohio" type were produced in the USA. However the first 4 were converted subsequently into carriers of cruise missiles of sea basing. Instead of 22 mines for ballistic missiles 7 cruise missiles were installed on each of them (2 more mines are used as lock chambers for vehicles of fighting swimmers), thus each boat bears 154 cruise missiles of sea basing. Besides, 52 multi-purpose submarines enter the structure of Naval Forces of the USA: 3 pcs of "Sea Volf" type, 4 pcs of "Virginia" type (all in all they plan to produce 30 pcs of such type) and 45 pcs of "Los Angeles" type (they are being gradually deduced from structure of Naval Forces). All "Virginia" and 31 pcs of "Los-Angeles" have 12 special mines for cruise missiles onboard, i.e. totally they bear 420 cruise missiles. Besides, all 52 submarines have possibility to launch cruise missiles also with the help of simple torpedo tubes, i.e. quantity of cruise missiles of sea basing on them can be even higher. Taking into account 4 aforementioned submarines "Ohio" type, the number of cruise missiles on submarines of the USA makes 1036 pcs and some quantity as a part of regular ammunition of submarine (torpedoes and rockets which could be launched with the help of torpedo tubes). At last, 22 cruisers of "Ticonderoga" and 52 destroyers "Arleigh Burke" type are equipped by system "Aegis" with installations of vertical start-up MK41. In each cell such vertical start-up can contain either cruise missile "Tomahawk", or antiaircraft missile of big range "Standard", or 4 pcs of antiaircraft missile of small range "Sea Sparrow", or anti-submarine rocket "ASRock". Today 74 cruisers and destroyer with "Aegis" totally have onboard 7478 cells of vertical start-ups, it is supposed to construct 9 more pieces of "Arleigh Burke", then the number of cruise missiles of sea basing will increase up to 8342 pieces.
- Despite of Medvedev and Putin's general declarations about interrelation of defensive and offensive strategic armaments ABM system of the USA will be actually not taken into consideration. It was promoted by the circumstance that due to excessive attention which the Russian propagation attends to possible placing of ABM components of the USA in the Eastern Europe, technically semiliterate people have false impression that system of ABM of land basing in Czechia and Poland - so-called third area of ABM - represents the greatest threat for the Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, antimissiles GBI in Poland are not in condition to threaten Strategic Nuclear Forces the Russian Federation even theoretically by their qualitative characteristics. As to antimissiles GBI on Alaska and in California they are capable to create limited threat to Strategic Nuclear Forces of the Russian Federation, whereas possible rocket-nuclear attack of Democratic People's Republic of Korea and hypothetical reciprocal rocket-nuclear attack of China are possible already today.
Natalia Timakova, Medvedev's Press Secretary: the American part did not name concrete dates of monitoring of necessity of creation of the third area of ABM in the Eastern Europe.
"Echo of Moscow": Dmitry Medvedev suggests to think over the question on configuration of global ABM which would be equitable to interests of all countries. He noticed that creation of the American system of ABM infringes on interests of our country and it would be expedient to think over creation of the system which is equitable to interests of all countries. "I think that we can reach such agreements, though it is, of course, difficult", - Medvedev said.
- In other words, the Russian side in exchange for Obama's oral promise to wait a little with expansion of the third item area in Czechia and Poland actually gives green light to further American works in ABM sphere in those directions which can affect in due course the general balance of strategic forces of the sides essentially. So, the basic threat is represented in the long term by system of ABM of sea basing placed on the ships of Naval Forces of the USA equipped with system "Aegis". It is based on Antiaircraft Missile "Standard" which updating "Standard" SМ-3 successfully tested as anti-satellite weapon, hence possesses possibilities of ABM against every ballistic missiles including IBM. Performance by cruisers and destroyers of Naval Forces of the USA of tasks of ABM demands software completion. Now, according to official figures, only 3 cruisers and 15 destroyers passed it, there will be works on other ships. ABM system of sea basing possesses high mobility (as it moves together with ships), i.e. can work on various geographical directions. In particular in connection with thawing of arctic pack begun the group of several cruisers and destroyers can constantly be in high widths, i.e. on trajectories of flight of IBM and BSR from the Russian Federation in the USA. The quantity of Naval Forces of the USA of Antiaircraft Missile "Standard" SM-3 can make not less than 1000 antimissiles. Besides, the USA can create ABM system of air basing representing laser installation on plane "Boeing-747" intended for defeat of BSR on active site of trajectory being launched from the rocket submarine cruiser of special purpose from water areas of Arctic ocean. The plane with laser onboard can patrol these water areas long enough, thus even fighter cover is not required since it will be out of reach of the Russian fighter aircraft.
- Summing up what was told, approximately by 2017-2020 Russia disregarding presence-absence of new Treaty SOA will obviously lose ability to drawing of guaranteed unacceptable damage to the USA in reciprocal actions. China which is not possessing such ability today will hardly acquire it in the foreseeable future. Thus unipolar nuclear world will come in which the USA will dominate over all other countries in strategic nuclear sphere.
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