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Leakage of the Russian Missile Technologies Will Let China, Democratic People’s Republicof Koreaand Iran Withstand Aggression of the USA

Leakage of the Russian Missile Technologies Will Let China, Democratic People’s Republicof Koreaand Iran Withstand Aggression of the USA
Saidov Ruslan 13.07.2006

On the background of crisis around the Iranian nuclear program, launching of the Korean missiles undertaken by Pyongyang - probably, in coordination with Pekin for derivation of attention of the USA from Iran, next Indian tests of a cruise missile "Bramos" - "Brahmaputra-Moscow" and new "exposures" of 5-6-years old "contraband" of cruise missiles X-55 from the Ukraine to China and Iran, the process which has been continuing for already 15 years is approaching its logical end. The matter concerns organized leakage of rocket, nuclear, biological and other armament technologies of double purpose from Russia, the Ukraineand other countries of former USSRabroad.

Here we mean such states as the USA, Israel, India, Brazil but first of all a kind of informal joint venture including China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Pakistan and Iran with China being, for sure, the coordinator and the basic addressee of technologies. Speaking about the informality of the joint venture I mean that between the listed above its members an overflowing of an intellectual product, the industrial and scientific equipment, technical documentation, development and arms samples exists on the regular base. Thus the main adjusting function is executed by the Chineses. At the same time they are the purchasers of the basic volume of technologies on territory of the former Unionand not only there. There are also other sources: France, Germany, the Great Britain, Japanand, certainly, Israel.

Already on the 16th of August, 2001in the Israeli newspaper "Ha'aretz" a clause appeared concerning the signing by Israeland 39 countries including Chinaand Indiaagreements on cooperation of their secret agencies. The clause stated that "within the limits of these agreements the parties which have signed them undertake to cooperate in investigation of cases where information leakage to the third parties took place”. At the same time close relations of Israelwith Chinabecame a sore point in relations of Tel Aviv and the USAwhich did not approve an exchange of the confidential technical information, especially in what concerns the sale of the onboard radio-electronic equipment for fighters “Lavi” having been constructed together and being financed basically by the USA. Besides despite of absence of official comments from the part of the USAon the purchase by Chinaof technologies for the production of the nuclear weapon, developed on the base of the American samples, the last event also caused quite considerable difficulties in relations of Washingtonwith Tel Aviv.

According to the results of investigation authorized by the Senate of the USA the Chinese scientists started the miniaturization of nuclear warheads and the development of the technology of a neutron bomb production in the beginning of 80th years, that is in the heat of known case of Israeli secret agent Pollarda. Israelreceived exactly those technologies as well as Chinawith its help. In 1988 the Chinese experts tested a nuclear charge capacity up to 5 kW with the raised output of neutron radiation. That is the PeoplesRepublicof Chinabecame the owner of neutron weapon that later was confirmed by Pekin. But all the same Russiabecame the unconditional leader in the field of export of technologies after disintegration of the USSRdespite of obvious activity of Israelis. However, their transfer to the Chinese people had already started in 50th years. Thus, in one’s time owing to the USSRthe PeoplesRepublicof Chinaacquired nuclear weapon. Further growing of scientific and technical and manufacturing potentialities allowed the nuclear industry of China to produce by the end of 20-th century annually up to 75 units of nuclear weapon while their total quantity in the effective rate reached 400 pieces (taking into account its guarantee period of 10-12 years after which expiration they should be subjected to disassembling). All in all to the present moment approximately 1500 nuclear weapons have been produced in the PeoplesRepublicof China. At that there is good reason to believe that deliberate secret collaboration from the part of Chinawith the Democratic People’s Republicof Koreaand Pakistanin the nuclear sphere contributed in many respects to the fact that these states have become the owners of the nuclear weapon.

In its turn secret cooperation of Pakistanand Iranhas resulted in not advertised circumstance that Teheran, apparently, for some time already has one or even two nuclear devices with capacity up to 20 kW which stuffing has not the Iranian origin. The sphere of rocket technologies is not less curious. At the time when the Russian and international press filled their pages with PR of "Rosoboronexport" based on the contracts with China and Iran on deliveries of planes of tactical air, air defence complexes, ships and submarines to these states, much more important work was been carring out in other directions. It had begun in days of the Russian-Chinese friendship when in 1959 the USSR transferred the Peoples Republic of China the license for production of the distant bomber TU-16 which got itse Chinese name "Hun-6". The Chinese people produced 120 such machines which even nowadays remain the basic striking force of their long-range avaition aircraft. Thus "Hun-6" has double purpose. It can be used for drawing impacts as with application of usual as nuclear weapon. However, the planes mentioned possess low opportunities on overcoming of air defence, do not provide high accuracy of bombing, have no system of refuelling in air, their radius of action does not exceed 3000 km. Therefore the PeoplesRepublicof Chinaalso at the assistance of the USSRthe priority was taken the course on the development of rocket production. As a result now China has in its effective rate 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles "Dunfen-5" aimed on the USA and about 100 ballistic missiles of average range “Dunfen-4” placed in tonnel and cave launchers and mobile “Dunfen-21” aimed on Russia, India and the American military objects in the Eastern and South-East Asia. 

Except for this the grouping of 20 mobile soil rocket complexes with solid fuel ICBM "unfen-31" (range ability - 8000 km) which can deliver to the aims nuclear weapons with capacity of 2.5 megatons is now created. It is decided that in future "Dunfen-31" will bear a divided head part of individual prompting with 3 warheads of capacity up to 500 kiloton each. Predictably, in 4-5 years new solid fuel ICBM "Dunfen-41" with range ability up to 12000 km will enter the inventory.  These rockets should possess high accuracy and efficiency, be placed on mobile launchers and be equipped with three warheads of individual pointing with capacity up to 500 kiloton. Most likely that in 10 years - that is by 2017 – there will be a groupping of 40-60 such rockets intended for strategic nuclear restraint of the USAin the field of the PeoplesRepublicof China. Besides in 1990 air-design tests of mobile solid fuel operational and tactical Ballistic Missile “Dunfen-11” and “Dunfen-15” with range of shooting of 300 and 600 km accordingly and possibility of delivering of nuclear weapons were completed. There are now approxiamtely 250 such rockets aimed on Taiwanin the south of the PeoplesRepublicof China. The first atomic submarine of the project 092 replenished the structure of Naval Forces of the PeoplesRepublicof Chinain 1989. It has the place for 12 experimental monoblock rockets "Tsjulan -1" ("Great Wave"). This rocket has the range ability of 1700 km and can carry warhead with 300 kiloton capacity.

In July, 2004 the first atomic submarine of the project 094 was launched. According to the plans of development of sea grouping SNF the construction of five more nuclear submarines of similar type with 16 launchers of rockets with multiple warhead "Tsjulan-2 is foreseen to the year 2017. SLBM "Tsjulan-2" which putting into range is expected by the end of this decade – is a navy updating of ICBM "Dunfen-31" with range ability of 8000 km, capable to strike blows on the most part of the USA territory and all territory of Russia and India being situated near the Chinese costs. It is necessary to note that “Dunfen-31" is, to a certain degree, the worsened copy of our Udmurt "Poplar" (“Topol”). And "Dunfen-41", with a number of reservations, promises to become a copy of "Poplar-M" (“Topol-M). Needless to say that well-known Korean ballistic missiles created on the base received from Chinaand also directly from Dnepropetrovskand not less known Iranian "Shihab" – which are their copies – initially have the Soviet origin. By the way, in this connection it is necessary to mention cooperation of Chinaand Pakistanin the field of rocket technologies.

By virtue of scandalousness of a theme it is necessary to mention apart cruise missiles X-55 delivered to Chinaand Iranfrom the Ukrainein 2000-2001 and from Chinaostensibly also to Pakistan. There are a lot of myths in this connection.  So, the representative of Iranian oppositional grouping NCRI Ali Reza Dzhafar-Zade declared that two of six rockets which got by Teheran undergone the reversive engineering analysis and on their basis the "know-how" of own Iranian cruise missiles was created. Defense interprises of the country had already adopted it, the oppositioner said. Meanwhile, the question is not in mastering of the Iranian military-industrial complex of copying of cruise missiles X-55. By the way, it’s not so because there’s simply no necessity. Really for the frightening of the populace by the Iranian use of missiles against Israel“Shihaba-3” is enough.  For impacts on military objects of the USA in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates such flight range as at -55, it is obviously superfluous, and for attack of base to island Diego Garcia - on the contrary, For impacts on military objects of the USA in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates such flight range as X-55 has is obviously superfluous and for attack of base on island Diego Garcia - on the contrary, is insufficient. But the main thing is different: what will be priority operations of armed forces of Iranin case of war with the USA? Short of organization of revolts in Shiiteareas of Iraqboth in the West and in the center of Afghanistanit will be blocking of tanker navigation through 54-kilometer Strait of Ormuz?

It is necessary to say that the Iranians already have a considerable experience of such blocking by means of using of the sea mines, saved up during war with Iraq in 80th years. Then, in spring of 1987, the Iranian Naval Forces have started mining of approaches to the Kuwaiti and Saudi ports. In July-August their mine-protecting actions spreaded to the Strait of Ormuzand northern part of Gulfof Oman. On the 10th of August, 1987 in the area of anchor parking in port the El-Fuzzier (United Arab Emirates) the American supertanker with 210000 ton tonnage was blown up on the Iranian mine. After that about 50 other tankers gathered for some time near the input to the passage not risking floating through the dangerous zone. Subsequently in 1987 9 more courts were undermined, 2 from which sunk. And in 1988 the American frigate "Samuel Roberts" and 5 civil courts of the different countries was blown up. To the present moment the potential of mine-protecting forces of Naval Forces of Iran has considerably grown in comparison with 1987-88. Scientists consider that it can appear sufficient to paralyse navigation in Strait of Ormuzand to complicate it essentially in Persian and Gulfof Omanfor the term of two-three months. At the same time the very Iranian-Iraqi war gave also another example of creation of effective obstacles for tanker navigation. Iraq, armed with French antiship rockets "Exoset" created considerable threat to the tankers following from terminals on the Iranian island Khark.

Scientists consider that the optimum decision in case of Strait of Ormuzblocking would be combination of two described above methods. For this purpose Iransharply requires modern torpedo arms and especially in antiship cruise missiles. Thus the basic work that is conducted there lately is dedicated exactly to them with maximal use of the Soviet highly technological reserve and not to the simple copying of X-55 as it the Iranian opposition asserts aiming to threaten Israel. By the way, these methods partly cross with Iranbut wider problems in the field of cruise missiles in close coordination with each other are solving by Pakistanand China. From the point of view of Islamabadit is the answer to the Indian-Russian program of creation of a family of cruise missiles "Bramos" of a various special-purpose designation. And for China– it’s a way to create threat to the American bases and fleet, including aircraft carriers, in the western part of Pacific Ocean. As the Peoples Republic of China have aviation means which can be equipped as the cruise missiles carries of the classes “air-to-surface” and “air-to-can” and such bombers as “Huan-6” mentioned and combat aircrafts as “Tsyan-5” (streamlined "Mig-17"), "SU-27" and "SU-30").

Besides our described cooperation with informal "consortium" China-Korea-Pakistan-Iran in the sphere of technologies as well as obvious interaction with Indiait would be unfair to say nothing about other countries. The fact that starting from the beginning of 90th years the Soviet high technologies, at times together with scientists and experts, moved to Silicon valley, Israel and even to San-Paolo in mass order is talked over a lot. However a leakage has not stopped at it. Very few people knows, for example, that the largest player in the world market of the weapon in such segment as the tommy gun Kalashnikov actually is, as it is not paradoxical, the USA together with its new allies and the share of Russia makes up only 10 %. It is connected with the fact that already in 50th years production technology of tommy gun Kalashnikov was given without an appropriate legal registration 18 countries - our friends. They were given all the technical specifications and know-how to it, representatives of those countries came to Izhevskwhere they studied the production line in details. Now manufacture of the guns AK-47 and is adjusted by 30 companies in different countries including 16 companies in the USA. Among manufacturers of the guns I would allocate apart the Hungarian gunmakers and a branch of the Polish production association "Bumar". My Ukrainian patners work actively both with Hungarians and with Poles. Besides I would allocate well-known to me personally factory in Jordanand the Bulgarian factory "Arsenal" which several years ago created together with the American businessmen the joint venture on production of Ak-47 in Nevada. The listed manufacturers of guns take in the leading positions in the world market. So, in 2003 "Arsenal" won the tender for delivery of 40000 AK-47 to Iraqi army that was promoted fairly by a competitive price - 65 dollars for the piece. The guns produced in Jordanwere sold to Iraqand Afganistan in 2004. And in 2005 already Polish manufacturers signed the contract for the delivery of 30000 AK-47 and to Iraq.

It is necessary to note that until recently in Russiawith interest treated cooperation with the gun-producers from Hungary, Jordanand Bulgariaas a matter of fact they shared with them experts and ideas as soon as they understood that the Americans won’t let purely Russian products to the majority of the markets. Besides Russia, after 15 years of "reforms" in military-industrial complex, for long time will be unable to satisfy the demand of the world market. The situation changed one year ago when, after the signing of contract with Venezuela, a state intermediary appeared with accusation of foreign producers in infriging. However, the fact of infriging manufacture can be hardly proved in the international courts, unreceptive to domestic, rather inept PR. As a result instead of constructive cooperation with same "Arsenal" competition becomes stronger on the world market which the Russian state intermediary will undoubtedly lose because of transcendental prices for AK-103 - almost 400 dollars for a piece - and obvious difficulties with performance of large orders, the reason which will make not him but the producing factory in Izhevsk suffer. The situation described can turn out to be typical and in other spheres connected with light armament and ammunition of the Soviet sample. Our military-industrial complex is so disorganized that is simply in no condition to execute qualitatively and in time a lot of orders. For example, as soon as in the spring of this year the Americans offered "Rosoboronexport" to supply Afghanistanwith a large party of light armament and ammunition the difficulties appeared, for example, with Tulamanufacturers of cartridges. In the meantime in the niche considered the competition with "Ukrspecexport" can become stronger shortly. As Michael Dure - the director of the Centerof Dataand Documentation of NATO in the Ukraine- has declared one of these days “countries of alliance are interested in the products of the Ukrainian military and industrial complex. Today 11 countries o NATO use he arms of the Soviet type and they are not going to reject it”.

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