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RTS Index Will Fall Down for 300-500 Items More Till the End of This Year

RTS Index Will Fall Down for 300-500 Items More Till the End of This Year
Roeva Natalya 19.07.2006

In the last years hundred thousands of the Russians have taken a great interest the Internet-trading. For many it almost became the basic source of income, some people even, having given up all businesses, entirely plunged into a virtual stock exchange. In May of this year, however, exchange players started suffering problems. The problems had been caused for many by a sudden falling of RTS index which, it’s not improbable, hadn’t ended yet.

As analiticians of the magazine “Expert” notice, after the fixation of index in the corridor of 1200-1500 items market participants though having been calmed  down a bit, continue to worry still. As, according to the forcast of “Expert”, annual period fall is ahead of the Russian market at the minimum till the line of 850-900 items. The reasons of disasters are seen in the policy of the USA, first of all in the activity of the Federal Reserve System on the increase of the rate.

As is well known, since 2002-03 all the world markets have been growing roughly. Not only in the developing markets but also on the markets of the Europeand the USAstock indexes have raised rates in tens annual interest rates. This period was called by the analytics "an epoch of cheap money". It was caused by several reasons: a scarce financial policy of the USA, high and at the same time growing world prices for oil and an enormous issue of dollar and other currencies after it. During "an epoch of cheap money" real interest rates in the USA, the European Unity and Japanwere actually negative. As a result the surplus of liquidity pushed stock quotations up all round the world. Simultaneously real estate went up like a shot – traditional protection instrument against devaluation.

It is necessary to say that the credit in the USAin reality costs nothing basically even now. But at this even small increase of rates has appeared to be capable of striking serious blow on the developing markets. What will come at the end, if the FRS will continue making the monetary policy more vigorous, the question that analytics ask themselves? It has been noticed long ago that for the last quarter of a century the majority of local financial crises in the world have been caused just by that this or that developing economy started to lose competitive struggle for atracting of the capital to the USA. The same occurs now. When in May investors suddenly realized that the FRS would continue raising interest rates further more, they started to get rid feverishly of risky actives of currencies and shares of developing markets as well as of raw futures. Capitals started coming back to the USAthat led to falling of stock indexes not only in Russia, but also in other countries - from Indiaand the republicof South Africaup to Colombiaand Turkeywhich suffered most strongly and which in this connection called as a weak part of a chain of the developing markets.

It is necessary to note that firstly investors deduced capitals equally from all markets. However, those countries which had appreciable deficiency of the balance of payments - Turkey, Colombia, India- appeared the most vulnerable. Because of the problems of falling down of currency exchange, growth of inflation and so on, connected with pullout of the capitals, investors have been running now first of all out of these countries. On the other hand, they hardly in the near future will run in the mass order from Braziland Chinaand Russiaas well - these countries are protected from instability by the great sized proficit of the sale balance.

What is waiting the world markets in foreseeable prospect? Experts issue in this question that "an epoch of cheap money" which is going away now is nothing else than as reflex reaction of global economy to stagnation. Actually, they say, we observe recurrence of the scenario of 70th years: the oil shock, caused by the situation on Middle East and more and more escalating consumption of oil in Indiaand China, exchange fevers, only in greater scale than in 70th years due to present globality of systems. Short but with of great range fluctations of all most important economic indicators are characteristic of the stagnation period. As a rule stages of such fluctuations can pass during this period: three years continues a trend downwards, then three years upwards follow and again downwards. Now, in experts’ opinion, the last third begins. One of the brightest attributes of it - conversations on the "fair" price for oil. As soon as it has been it and dollar issue connected with it that has caused "an epoch of cheap money", an attempt to find new mechanism of regulation of the oil price testifies to the growing desire to reconsider conditions of financial markets functioning basically.

To estimate an approximate scale of possible correction of world stock indexes, it is necessary to start with a parity of the present and "fair" price for oil. The price of 50 dollars for barrel more often is called “fair” now. The present price is approximately 70 dollars. Accordingly, correction will be about 30%. That is, in our case, correction of index of RTS aside downturn will make 300-500 items. To tell you the truth, in these discussions we don’t consider that it’s highly probabile that the world prices for oil have all chances not only not to decrease, but on the contrary to fly upwards in case of, for example, war of the USA with Iran and, as consequence, the terminations of export of the Iranian oil and blockade of strait of Ormuz for tanker navigation. If it will occur, no falling of indexes in the nearest year-half of the year, obviously, won’t be expected.

Nevertheless, sooner or later strategy of world development will undergo radical changes all the same. Thus the future priorities look quite predictedly. For example, it is technologies of water treating. Another strategic theme, in opinion of analysts - deficiency of transport highways which all the players of world economics suffer. Yet, the greatest interest of the investors, undoubtedly, causes the creation and introduction of resourse- and energy-saving technologies. Most likely, the world leader in the spheres mentioned will be the USAand some other developed countries such as Israel. As to China, its today's strategy – is fast industrialization due to a cheap labour and export orientation of the economy. Thus Chinese people, probably, squeeze out the rests of this strategy already and they don’t have any new at the time. To speak about Russiain this connection is simply indecent. Having taken “in the inventory” Gaydar-Chubajs-Kudrin-Gref’s liberal model, having proclaimed itself "the great power empire" - that is a raw appendage of the world economics – we are rolling light-heartedly in petrodollars which haven’t been earned yet. What do we have with strategies and innovations?

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