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Whether Ukraine Will Become Analogue of Putin's Russia but with Different Personal Vector?

Whether Ukraine Will Become Analogue of Putin's Russia but with Different Personal Vector?
Baranov Anatoly 21.07.2009

Parliamentary life of Ukraine turned not even to a farce but to frank clownery. Today national deputies from Party of Regions blocked the exit in the office of the chairman of the Supreme Rada Vladimir Litvin. Representatives of PR made it not to give the chance to V.Litvin to leave the office. In their turn national deputies from BJUT blocked parliament tribune so that national deputies from Party of Regions could not continue blocking it as in previous days. They also blocked back door into the parliament presidium not to give the chance to PR to make it before them.

To tell you the truth, it reminds a game of schoolboys during space time, only the rate in this game - the destiny of the parliament in very big European country. It is clear that there is rather thought out direction behind this clownery - national deputies solve private questions while director-producers - more general questions, in particular, full discredit of democratic mode in Ukraine.

The power of Ukraine is in next stalemate. It is necessary to carry out presidential elections already declared already but the president does not intend to sign the law regulating rules of these elections formulated by the parliament. The parliament can be dismissed because within 30 days after the beginning of session it has not started to work - that is the reason of a rustle near the tribune, the largest fraction of the parliament makes things which will lead to the dissolution of the Supreme Rada.

Then for uncertain period there will be only one power in the country - the president. At that his powers can be prolonged also after January, 17th which is declared as the day of elections - nobody will prevent him staying alone at the state wheel postponing voting date, say, for summer (by the way, at one time with elections of the Supreme Rada). Or for autumn. That is for a year or more to have quite dictatorial powers. Using this time is possible to elect, as unforgettable Boris Berezovsky used to say, even a horse bum the president.

Probably, Yushchenko prepares also government change under such pretext. After dissolution of the parliament the ruling coalition will cease to exist by itself and the prime minister will not represent anyone longer. The president (as it already happened) can send the Cabinet in resignation after the parliament and appoint minister at interim - Mr. Ehanurov recently dismissed from the post of the Minister of Defense is already employed by the president on the post of the first assistant of the presidential secretary specially created for him.

It's not for nothing! Еhanurov - very fine nominee for the role of minister at interim. Firstly, he already acted as minister and quite successfully. He is skilled manager and the main thing - everybody knows that he is skilled manager, that is his appointment will look organic, intelligently. By the way, on the post of Minister of Defense he, being civil minister, unexpectedly proved to be not bad - unlike the Russian colleague Serdjukov who managed to become "national spittoon" the same way as minister Zurabov, now the ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. By the way, Yushchenko quite possibly can refuse to accept agreement from ambassador Zurabov - such things took place already, when retired ministers with nasty reputation tried to place as ambassadors in the decent countries - for example, Minister of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan Jakub Salimov whos agreement was not accepted several times. It would give Yushchenko additional points in public opinion.

While Еhanurov as it was found out following the results of war in Georgia has rather succeeded in low-cost but effective field of modernisation of available arms, he coped with MTC and prepared some concrete measures for army reform so that it did not turn to national catastrophe as in the Russian Federation.

These steps will liquidate Timoshenko's nominee as real candidate for the president, she loses chances even to stay for the second round. What Yanukovich thinks helping Yushchenko to dissolute the parliament - is also not so clear. After all it is clear that on the next day after dissolution of the Supreme Rada all arrangements will lose force. Besides it is very bad to be involved in presidential and parliamentary election campaigns having steady image of clown heading the party of clowns. The Ukrainian politicum is after all not a circus where Red clown Timoshenko and Pero-Yanukovich amuse public on a carpet. Reputation is being gained for years and can be lost in one day.

What can resist to the president with dictatorial powers in conditions of liquidation of the parliament and the Cabinet independent of the president?

To be honest, very little things can do it. The Communist Party being recently torn apart by internal scandals today has no sufficient rating and is for a long time already perceived as the younger partner of Party of Regions.

Unless there remains "the spirit of the parliament" in the name of speaker Litvin who, having received to the title a prefix "ex", loses advantage of his status. Basically idea of opposition of the parliament against dictatorship of the president can "work out" - not at once as the Supreme Rada has been discredited by national deputies.

There's one possible way out - nonparty candidate as parties were active in discrediting of idea of parliamentarism in Ukraine. The requirement of direct national representation, the requirement of liquidation of voting following party lists - is really absurd in view of absence of parties as those (well, except unless CPU). That is the requirement of the next reform of power but not with replacement for authoritative one but, on the contrary, with the requirement of as much as possible wide national representation - direct democracy. Probably with introduction into political life of new information technology - on Internet covering Ukraine, probably, is the leader in the CIS; all territory of the country is covered by a network of the third generation (3G). That is those ideas which are only being heard in Russia and are tried only by National Assembly - informal and oppositional structure of national representation - in Ukraine can be offered to the present authority.

Perhaps, one more element which new oppositional force in Ukraine could offer - project of federalization of the country. At that quite explainable one - in conditions of crisis of the central power today the whole vertical loses legitimacy and stability. While in case if country regions would be subjects of some certain federation, if they would elect not only local parliaments but also the heads of regions (governors), control system would get necessary stability - it doesn't matter what happens in Kiev, regions should have normal life, normal functioning of the state institutes should proceed.

It is disputable idea as it has own opponents, there are arguments against it - mainly of demagogical character. Ukraine is non-uniform upon its existence and it is better to recognise it legislatively, than this heterogeneity will prove itself by attendance - it will become especially visible as a result of weakening (or, on the contrary, excessive strengthening) of the central power.

We hold an opinion poll on this theme - so we hope in some time to receive more or less distinct result.

As a whole political situation in Ukraine is very disturbing and fraught with situation development following the most little predictable scenario. It would be a pity, if Ukraine turned to analogue of Putin's Russia, only with different personal vector. Citizens of Ukraine will finally make the decision but it concerns much bigger circle of people and countries.

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