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Rouble Ceased Strengthening

Rouble Ceased Strengthening

Insignificant correction downwards of oil prices and share markets in the second half of the day on Tuesday appeared enough for a tendency turn in the currency market - dollar restored its position in relation to euro and rouble weakened in relation to both basic currencies.

On the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange dual - currency basket showed growth by 30,42 copecks up to 36,88 rbl. Dollar became stronger for a day by 4,7 copecks up to 30,76 rbl., euro - by 5,38 copecks up to 43,74 rbl. We will remind that yesterday dual - currency basket fell in price by 22,6 copecks up to 36,57 rbl., it had to gain only 17 copecks to June's minimum. Two weeks ago, on July, 13th the basket cost 38,63 rbl. Restoration of oil quotations after a collapse up to $60 led to rouble strengthening last days.

In the international market after the auctions above level of $1,428 in connection with growth of investors' appetite to risk euro got corrected downwards, up to $1,42. Quotations of September futures on Brent oil were rolled away on Tuesday from local maxima 71 dollars for barrel to 70,5 dollars.

That fact that rouble almost didn't become stronger on July, 21st as regards to the basket after a rise in prices for oil from $65 for barrel to $70 speaks well for that the national currency will fall in the near future. For comparison, all period of rouble strengthening the Ukrainian grivna weakened in relation to the basic currencies, while it had been becoming stronger in relation to rouble. It speaks that rouble was overestimated in home market. Decrease in the share markets also renders negative influence on the Russian currency - the main European and Russian share indexes show steady decrease on Tuesday.

"Intellectual (or moral) level of management of Bank of Russia which representatives declared readiness to bet "for a drink" about impossibility of devaluation depending on them (which happened) and on the eve of another devaluation convinced Russians that those who invested in currency would strongly lose - it even does not deserve discussion. It seems that the trust to official statements is destroyed: we should live the own way", - the chairman of Editorial board of FORUM.msk Michael Delyagin wrote 4 days ago.

"Modern Russian management will hardly dare even to reflect on restriction of outflow of speculative capitals, therefore exhaustion of the international reserves and landslide devaluation of rouble seems to be inevitable in the end of 2010 or in the beginning of 2011. Certainly, these terms are rough: expensive oil and political stability will keep them away, while cheap oil and political disorganization, on the contrary, will approach them", - the economist considers.


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