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New Situation on the Wing of "Party in Power"

New Situation on the Wing of "Party in Power"
Oleg Kulikov 01.09.2006

Election in the Regions: Positions of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Are Stable

Over a period of the whole August month an active preparation for October elections to legislative assemblies has been taking place in nine regions. The important tendency of a political life remains authorized by the president and supported by a part of his environment creation of the second, ostensibly "left" "party in power" through integration of RPZH and "Rodina". It’s evident that a new project does not have very big support. Too great forces and resources are concentrated around "Edinaya Russia", the more that in regions RPZH has little influence. It was shown by the decision of the election committee in Sverdlovsk area to cancel registration of this party. "Edinorossy" headed by the governor E.Rossel are strongly concerned by their low popularity in Sverdlovsk area and are interested in "clearing off" a selective field. Further development of this intrigue will show the degree of support of RPZH at a federal level, whether it will allow to restore the party among participants of elections in the largest of nine subjects of federation.

A tender which is conducted by the Russian Party of Pensioners with RPZH, though it is decided, as well as "Rodina", "to merge" with new "party in power" is remarkable also. Management РПП insists on equal in rights association. "Pensioners" will independently participate in regional elections and have put forward the lists practically everywhere. They expect to show results not worse than RPZH that will allow them to make a bargain. It’s quite probable that RPP will keep independence by working in interests of the Kremlin on split of the left electorate amd diverging of pensioners from voting for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. One more party which once was in preparation for integration with RPZH - APR "laid down" in some regions under "Edinaya Russia". In point of fact, the only success of the project "RPZH-Rodina" appeared to be arrangements about the share of the regions: "Zhisnentsy" left to them Kareliya, Tuva, Lipetsk area, "Rodina" got Chuvashiya and the Astrakhan area. However in Primorye Territory, the Novgorod area, the Jewish Autonomous Area both parties go on elections, every by its own column.

Strengthening of RPZH provokes in any case all-round splits in "Edinaya Russia". For example, in Tuva the list of "Edinays Russia" left the heads of regional parliament having further headed the list of RPZH. As a whole the situation in "Edinaya Russia" develops now not in the best way. The split occurred in the Samara area also where the party under pressure of center and the governor made an unexpected decision to support on elections the mayor of Samara, present city head G.Limansky. It led to the retirement of some influential figures from the party

A new situation on the wing of the "party in power" only starts forming and it’s not possible to predict success to the project "RPZH-Rodina". Most likely this project will stick in the Kremlin interclan conflicts and governor's sabotage. Despite of absorption of "Rodina", RPZH cannot receive voices on the left wing as it’s not associated in any way with the left movement. Election by the Yamal deputies of their new senator D.Ananev who occupied honourable post of councilor of S.Mironov shows who support RPZH. The banker and media-magnate D.Ananev with his fortune of 1,1 billion dollars becomes the richest member of Council of Federation. The electorate and a significant part of an active of "Rodina" in the meantime find themselves at the parting of the ways. "Patriots of Russia" of G.Semigin and "National Will" of S.Baburin claim for electoral niche of "Rodina", they have put forward the lists in the majority of regions.

As to "Edinaya Russia", its problems are connected not only with the appearance of the project "RPZH-Rodina". It creates many problems to itself. Thus to direct energy of young generation on behalf of movement "Young Guards" somewhere, it is solved that young supporters of "party in power" will be engaged in search of "enemies" and corrupt officials in the environment of the Russian bureaucracy. Considering that all the bureaucracy is listed in the same party and is fairly corrupted this step is difficult to name anything but self-destructive. New “social” projects of “Edinaya Russia” – distribution of social grants, opening of social shops, etc don’t find support among population.

In the situation which have developed before regional elections a little has changed. While RPZH, "Rodina" and the Party of Pensioners are trying to understand each other, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation remains the main opponent of "party in power" and steadily keeps the second place in ratings. Communists are preparing not only to elections: ahead is "hot autumn" and large protest actions are planned for it. One of them will be devoted to the second reading of the law "About Independent Istitutions" which as I.Melnikov has noted in the interview “opens the way for sly forms of privatization of educational institutions, science and culture”.  All-Russian action against the Russian-American maneuvers “Topgay-2006” will take place on the 14th of September.

Time Requires Principal Decisions

In a world policy a huge attention is still drawn to the situation in the Near East. As is known, there is a preparation for sending the Russian peacemakers to Lebanon. The Kremlin could not get certain position while military actions took place, but now tries to make up for lost time. On this background analytics do not exclude a new coil of military actions in the Near East. The Lebanese managed to defend their sovereignty at the support of progressive forces all over the world. Israel lost, but, certainly, cannot put up with it. In the meantime political instability grows in the Israel in connection with a number of scandals. To distract the public attention from internal problems, the Israeli authorities can go on new escalation of intensity. The game of the Western powers against Iran makes situation in the Near East more unstable. Pressure of the West, aspiring to compel Iran to curtail the nuclear program, can shortly lead to introduction of sanctions against this country.

Principal attitude to the situation in the Near East was confirmed by an extraordinary meeting of communistic and working parties which has passed in Athena at participation of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Participants of the meeting demanded cease-fire, leaving of Israel from all territories occupied starting from 1967, creation of the Palestinian state with the capital in East Jerusalem, release of all political prisoners and hostages by Israel.

The events connected with 15-years anniversary of August events of 1991 reminded of the foreign policy. The Russian authorities again preferred to keep silent so that not to set against them voters of the left and patriotic orientation to whom the Kremlin constantly makes advances. They didn’t react to such shocking event, as B.Yeltsin's rewarding by the superior state award of Latvia as a token of gratitude for support of independence of this Baltic republic. This event gives an occasion to think over the true views of the Russian ruling circles. When B.Yeltsin was in power, he refused defiantly this award being afraid of anger of voters. But the time passed, PR ended and the former head of the state went with pleasure to Latvia behind to get an award and to rest a little. Meanwhile his successors, in the same way he used to do it, convict a policy of the Baltic States in connection to the Russians, playing out patriotic card. Essentially nothing varies. Moreover they didn’t forget to congratulate the Ukraine on Independence Day which took place last week.

While inconsistency distinguishes a policy of the Russian authorities, the social and economic situation in the country becomes less stable. More and more proofs of the fact that authorities worthlessly missed the chance given by a favourable conjuncture in the world market. No serious investments into the real sector, no strategic program of a careful and systematic expenditure of the saved up means was offered. It looks like the time has really passed. In July, as statistics testifies, decrease of 4.9% of real profits of population took place in comparison to June. Increase of prices proceeds, especially it is seen from the increase of prices for gasoline and the PETROLEUM PRODUCTS. The developed macroeconomic situation will inevitably force authorities to refuse policy of strengthening of rouble that will urge on inflation. It is demanded openly by V.Putin as the strong rouble worsens the foreign trade balance, constrains export and promotes growth of import. As to import, in connection with a bad crop food safety of the country is again under the threat. The Russian government is obviously not capable of carrying of flexible policy in the interest of the country having tearing between “economies” of A.Kudrin acted for accumulation of means in Stabilization Fund and appetites of the corrupt lobbyists. In the near prospect such policy can lead to another social and economic crisis when rigid, really principal decisions in the interests of the future of the country will be needed.
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