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|28 okt 2016|
Anton Surikov 08.09.2006
Recently we we published the first part of the talk of the political scientists Ruslan Saidov, Anton Surikov and Vladimir Filin which as its proposed would be a basis for their future book with preliminary name: Escape from the Ruins of the Empire. This publication, judging from the frequency of the article and a number of comments left though not concrete every time awoke keen interest of the readers. In this connection as the recording of the oral talk of the authors will undergo necessary editorial editing we are planning to continue the theme started. Here we publish an article of the political scientist Anton Surikov prepared on the base of the thoughts expressed by him during the discussion mentioned. Magazine version of an article of Anton Surikov will be issued on the 6th of September on Wednesday in the current issue of Zavtra.
Analyzing foreign policy of
All this should be considered on a background of not settled Palestinian-Israeli conflict as well as situation around
In any case, having concentrated on the Near East and thus seriously spoiled relations with the countries of "old" Europe, Americans now even in foreseeable prospect do not presume excessive activity in other regions, in particular, in Russia and the CIS. Certainly, the western press and politicians sharply criticize Putin for ostensibly having place intervention in affairs of former Soviet republics and for «infringement of democracy». However this criticism is not transformed to taking practical measures directed against
Another important consequence of instability in the
Certainly, the reason of a rise of prices is not only in intensity in the Near-Eastern region. High rates of growth of economy of
At last, one more moment connected to the CIS. In 2003-2005 the policy of
At the same time, it looks as if the listed failures taught Putin a lot. As a result, to the present moment he could take practically in all directions some kind of revenge. In the Ukraine Victor Janukovich returned to the post of the Prime-Minister and clearly enough would, remaining the supporter of independence, nevertheless, start peaceful negotiations with
At last, though its not an international but an internal question, to the present moment, after the death of Shamil Basayev and Abdul-Halim Sadulaev and strengthening of positions of Ramzan Kadyrov, it is possible to speak confidently about successful finishing of the war in the Chechen Republic, about liquidations of the extremely dangerous center of intensity long time holding down Russia in its internal and foreign policy.
As a whole on the eighth year of Putins being in power foreign policy positions of the country are strong as never. Due to the prices for oil the Kremlin has a plentitude of money. On perimeter of borders of
At last, the Kremlin remained normal relations also with the American administration which shows pragmatism and looks for support of
And Putin not running into inappropriate antiamericanism develops in parallel deep connections, including power and military - technical, with
There is a question: whether all listed well-being is Vladimir Putin's merit or its a pure luck? Certainly, the considerable element of luck is present here. However theres no eternal luck. And if Putin wouldnt get lessons, would not get experience in management of the country and its foreign policy, the luck ended long time ago.
Whether Putin's foreign policy course has mistakes? Certainly, there are mistakes. But they bear now especially tactical character in difference to the first years of Putins being in power. Then, as we remember, Putin liquidated our bases on
And at the same time problems remain. For example, dependence of the Russian economic elite and the officials, subjected to strong corruption, from accounts in foreign banks, property abroad. It makes the top of our society dependent from same Americans who easy manipulate them.
Another problem - economic instability in the long-term plan when the prices for oil can fall and all present stability would vanish together with them. Theres the only way out - gradual refusal of raw orientation of the national economy, the accelerated modernization of a base infrastructure and the forced development of competitive in the internal and world markets branches. But it is impossible to achieve it relying only on market elements and sterilization of monetary weight in the stabilization fund placed mainly in the
At early stages of his presidency Putin denied the state intervention in economy, explaining it by corruption and inefficiency of a state machinery, considering that all the same «everything will be stolen». However, in his last messages to the Federal Assembly he spoke differently. Moreover, separate steps such as creation of investment fund, etc begin to be undertaken. Apparently, such evolution of point of view of the president will be finished to the year 2008 when he will need to leave.
What will his successor - Medvedev, Sergey Ivanov, Yakunin do? Whether the successor will succeed without losing the rate and stock of historical time in getting to work quickly? Its hardly possible. Putin spent years for consolidation of authority, for escalating of political weight on international scene and inside the country, for, at last, elementary training and getting of experience of management of the country. Where does the confidence from that in a case with the successor all will be differently.
In any case a change of authority in 2008 will inevitably retard realization of so necessary strategy of modernization up to which the present president, probably, has almost ripened. Foreign policy mistakes will be for certain made. Even because of the fact that the successor, deprived of Putin's "weight", will need to be ratified on international scene.
What can be the results of such attempts, we know from the experience of Gorbachev, Yeltsin and Putin himself. Its especially actual as in the same 2008 the presidential elections in the
Summarizing what was told by way of discussion, I will take a risk to express unpopular, from the point of view of many, opinion may it be so that the third term of presidency of Vladimir Putin would be not such a bad decision?
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