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Resignation of the Prime-Minister Fradkov Is Coming: D.Medvedev or V.Matvienko - Who Will Win

Resignation of the Prime-Minister Fradkov Is Coming: D.Medvedev or V.Matvienko - Who Will Win
12.09.2006

Resignation of the Chairman of the government Michael Fradkov can take place in October as well we some other members of the cabinet. Experts name the first Vice-Premier Dmitry Medvedev as the most obvious candidate to the post of the Prime Minister, he used to occupy not once the post of the Prime-Minister. In opinion of political scientists if an assignment of the potential candidate for a post of the head of the government will take place, it is possible to speak about the start of the next stage of operation "successor" with confidence. Newspaper “Novy Izvestiya” writes about it in its Thursday issue referring to anonymous sources in the management of the State Duma.

According to the newspaper, if resignation of Michael Fradkov from the post of the Chairman of the government will take place, it is possible that Herman Gref will keep the post in the cabinet. Among the candidates for resignation the following names were mentioned: the name of the Minister of Internal Affairs Rashid Nurgaliev and the name of the Minister of Natural Resources Jury Trutnev. It is possible that Gennady Onishchenko – a head of RosPotrebNadzor who has compromised himself in public political scandals of the last time can lose his post.

Forthcoming resignation of the head of the government Michael Fradkov and other members of the cabinet has been already discussing in lobby of the State Duma, “Novy Izvestiya” affirms. In fact the deputies of the State Duma can apply for the posts unoccupied. "Edinorossy", for example, have already for a long time been advancing the idea of party ministers. The Duma factor can become final in the process of decision-making on resignation of the government. Experts consider that the change of prime-minister and rearrangement in the cabinet except for the change of economic policy of the government can be connected with preparation to forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections of 2007 and 2008.

Elections to Duma of 2007 despite of careful clearing off a party field and in many respects due to it can present some surprises. As a result of cancellation of elections on one-mandatory districts "Edinaya Russia" has all chances not to collect overwhelming majority. And started with the help of the assistant to the head of the Kremlin administration Vladislav Surkov alliance RPZh, "pensioners" and "Rodina" at once fought "edinorossy" for an administrative resource.

Some of the experts connect forthcoming cleaning off the cabinet with the beginning of operation "Successor". In this case the main candidates for a post of the Prime Minister become potential successors: the first Vice-Premier of the government supervising national projects Dmitry Medvedev and Vice-Premier, Minister of Defence Sergey Ivanov. "It is probable that assignment one of the candidates in successors for the post of the Prime Minister will be done so that he, having in hands the huge budget, could distribute money, build hospitals, schools and in every possible way show care of people", - independent deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov considers. However, he believes that it will be not a resignation but just a change of posts and people as soon as "the president has no special claims to the work of Michael Fradkov and it’s not in his habits to remove people completely".

According to the opinion of political scientists, Dmitry Medvedev is nevertheless the most probable candidate to the post of the Prime-Minister. "It’s most likely that he will occupy a place of the Chairman of the government", - the General Director of the Center of the political information Alexey Mukhin considered.

However an expert considers, that Dmitry Medvedev's assignment for the post of the head of the government is now inexpedient, as the first Vice-Premier "has just accustomed to a role of the manager of nationally oriented projects and his further promotion in his career right now will lead to disorder which iour president does not like". "He needs first of all to achieve the first results and only after that to move higher", - Mukhin told.

Except for Medvedev, according to Alexey Muhin, the post of the Chairman of the government can claim also the Vice-President of the government Alexander Zhukov, Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin and another potential successor - Vice-Premier, Minister of Defence Sergey Ivanov.

"Sergey Ivanov also has premier’s ambitions, - the political scientist considers. - But now, despite of political and social activity, Sergey Ivanov doesn’t suit to the post of the Prime-Minister, as, thus, he will be under the threat within the framework of campaign - 2008".

The Deputy of the State Duma Vladimir Ryzhkov also considers that it’s not yet the time for a start of the scheme of assignment on the post of Prime-Minister after which the Chairman of the government becomes the main candidate from the Kremlin for the post of the head of the state. "There’s still time before elections will start, - the Deputy explains. - Technologically it is much better to make such rearrangements not for a year and a half before the elections but for a year or half-year".

However, according to the political scientists, it is rather probable that not the public figure will be appointed to a post of the Prime-Minister as well as in a case with Michael Fradkov. "Michael Fradkov's appointment has shown that Vladimir Putin considers his personnel staff bench of spare as infinite, - Sergey Markov, director of Institute of political researches told. - Therefore if to speak about the type of a person, it can be hundreds of people. It is possible that it will be a manager, a technocrat or a liberal without political ambitions".

Victor Ilyukhin, the Vice-President of Safety Committee of the State Duma, the Deputy of the State Duma from fraction of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation considers that "the government quite possibly can be resigned in October as soon as only one year remains before parliamentary elections". "All sins will be written out on Fradkov and Dmitry Medvedev will be put instead of him who is now an expert in everything - in economics, in agriculture and in gynecology. Now Medvedev even copies Putin, he walks as Putin and has similar manners as the president", - Ilyukhin considers.

Valentina Matvienko Can Become the Prime-Minister of Russia

During crisis around monetarization of privileges among candidates for Michael Fradkovas post a nominee of the governor of Saint-Petersburg Valentina Matvienko was also named.

Experts remind that Matvienko already worked in the government, besides on the most "sick" of the fields - as social Vice-Premier. Besides she has successful experience of diplomatic work – she used to be the ambassador on Malta and in Greece and today in various ratings of governors occupies leading positions. One more important detail: if such appointment will take place, Valentina Matvienko will become the first in a history of Russia woman - Prime-Minister, that, most likely, will be positively accepted in the West.

Information that Valentina Matvienko can even become a successor of Vladimir Putin appeared last week and in that case her assignment to the post of the head of the Russian government looks quite logical.

Valentina Matvienko herself made the following comments on such proposals: "In my opinion, Russia is not ready to choose a woman - president. The mentality of the most part of our country is still on the level which gives an advantage to men. In this case Petersburg and petersburgers have become nearer to the European countries where women become the heads of the states on the same level with men. As to me personally, I am not going to try for the post of the president".

However, the mass-media informed that the Governor of Saint-Petersburg herself put an initiative about her presidency to the Head of the state. She, ostensibly, guarantees Putin’s returning in 2012, promising to occupy the place temporarily and to give it back after. This project have already called "Valentina the Great".

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