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Victory of Democratic Party of the USA and Resignation of Ramsfeld Will Simplify Putin's Choice of the Successor. It Will Be Medvedev or ... Putin Himself

Victory of Democratic Party of the USA and Resignation of Ramsfeld Will Simplify Putin's Choice of the Successor. It Will Be Medvedev or ... Putin Himself
Filin Vladimir 11.11.2006

The victory of Democratic Party of the USA in congressional elections on November, 7th, probably, makes the American aggression against Iran less real. If, certainly, not to assume new scale provocation of "a party of war" according to its scale not conceding to the act of terrorism on September, 11th. Gradual curtailing of the American military presence in Iraq cast into the abyss of civil war and in Afghanistan where at support of the Pakistan and Chinese special services talibs sharply became more active, is also probable. It can’t be excluded that public trials of the activity of the so called group Cheney – Ramsfeld in the Congress are coming.

However, as the practice of the last one and a half – two years show, hardly Americans will manage to join to these affairs law enforcement bodies of a lot of foreign states such as Russia (headed by Putin), the Ukraine, Belarus, China, Hong Kong, Iran, Turkey, Brazil, Venezuela, etc. Probably, it will have to be satisfied with Georgia, Israel, Iraq, Afghanistan and Colombia and also, though with many limitations and great reluctance, with Dubai and some countries of the Europe. Undoubtedly, the result of the elections into the Congress of the USA will influence the Russian-American relations.

I believe that the victory of democrats first of all will bury hopes of Putin’s liberals and oligarchical lobbyists like Alexey Mordashev for accelerated, to the detriment of national interests, introduction of Russia into the World trading organization. In these conditions Putin, probably, will nevertheless realize, at last, that Americans and own liberals have been fooling him for a long time, giving empty promises about entering WTO which in reality nobody have been going to carry out.

For the Russian national economy the failure of introduction of the country into WTO will become real holiday. Thus operation of the majority of discrimination trading agreements which have been concluded by the liberals from the Ministry of Economics with other countries at a stage of negotiations about WTO most likely will be suspended. First of all, operation of the Russian-American agreement on quota arrangements by Russia of import of products of meat group of 2005. This, I will call it, criminal arrangement gives the USA baseless preferences in the sphere of export of meat into our country. First of all, of so-called "Bush's legs". The given agreement causes enormous damage to the Russian poultry breeders. Besides it discriminates important external economic partners of Russia more diligent and responsible than the USA such as Brazil. Now there is an opportunity to bury the criminal agreement on meat, in the interests of the Russian poultry breeders and hog breeders sharply lower total amount of quotas on import of the hen and pork and the most part of a share of the USA in the import transfer to other countries, first of all to Brazil, for example.

Another logic decision would be full refusal of purchases by Russia of "Boeing" in favour of European "Airbus" and Brazilian "Ambrier". Thus, the adequate answer from the USA is hardly possible. Owing to the high prices for oil Russia doesn’t depend in the financial matters on America and international financial organizations under its control such as IMF and MB. Our basic export goods - oil and gas - in the world market are in obvious deficiency. The share of the USA in the foreign trade turnover of Russia is insignificant. That means the Americans have no real economic levers of influence on our state.

However, there is a threat of arrests of accounts of the Russian oligarches extremely influential in the Kremlin and high rank officials in the western and offshore banks. But it is necessary to address this question personally to Putin. If the president will really want it, the Kremlin "accountcracy" will be overturned notwithstanding the fact that it is supported by the West. But then Putin should operate rather rigidly and, obviously, it will demand him to stay for the third term.

If Putin wil be unequal to the difficulties, a variant of development of our internal situation in conditions of prevalence of Democratic Party in the Congress of the USA will practically be reduced to what Alexander Voloshin who represented Roman Abramovich, Michael Fridman and Anatoly Chubays reported in Washington. Dmitry Medvedev will become the successor and a quartet Voloshin-Abramovich-Fridman-Chubays will operate Russia on his behalf.


PS. Minister of Defence of the USA Donald Ramsfeld retires, the American mass-media have informed. At press conference president Bush officially confirmed it and informed about promotion on a post of the head of the Pentagon of the former director of CIA Robert Gates. It is obvious that this step is dictated first of all by large defeat of republicans on congressional elections of the USA which took place on the eve.

In the meantime democrats triumph: for the first time for last 12 years they managed to receive the majority of mandates in the House of Representatives and, most likely, it will occur in the Senate (according to the information available, now democrats already have 50 places out of hundred and for the control of the Senate they need the victory of their candidate in Virginia – republicans are strongly losing there). Nancy Pelosi taking up a post of the speaker of the House of Representatives welcomed Donald Ramsfeld's resignation.

"I think that the president should designate change of a course. The best beginning for it not only for democrats but also for a greater part of citizens of the USA as well as for militarians, would become change of management of the Pentagon, - she declared acting on press conferences on Wednesday. In opinion of Pelosi the policy of America in Iraq should be changed. She considers that it is demanded not only by democrats, the most part of Americans, but also by militarians.

"We cannot follow this catastrophic way any more, - ITAR-TASS gives her word at press conference in Washington. – That’s why we declare the president: Mr. President, we need to change a course in Iraq. Let's work together over the search of the decision". Earlier, as it is known, Pelosi and many other members of Democratic Party several times supported gradual pullout of the American armies from Iraq.
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