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Does Only “Edinaya Russia” Pass into the State Duma?

Does Only “Edinaya Russia” Pass into the State Duma?
Ilya Konstantinov 05.07.2007

In June of this year The All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center carried out a series of polls related to electoral support of various political parties.

As it could be supposed, "Edinaya Russia" is on the first place with great breakaway with 48,21% of rating. The second place is occupied by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (6,57%), the third - "Fair Russia" (5 %), the fourth place steadily belongs to LDPR (4,95%). All other political parties have a rating of less than one percent.

Thus 14,51% of the respondents were at a loss with the answer and 15,94% declared that they would not take part in elections if they would take place on the nearest Sunday.

Rather low result of such large political parties as the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and "Fair Russia" became one of the unexpectedness of interrogation, the results were much lower than their results on recent elections in regions of the Russian Federation.

As to the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, leaving aside statistical error, falling of its rating can be connected with rather passive position in basic internal political questions which is shown recently by the communists. I believe, that loud inner-party scandals also negatively resulted on its image.

Meanwhile the circumstance that "Fair Russia", despite of serious PR, obviously hangs about testifies, in my opinion, about serious ideological miscounts of the leadership of the party.

Showing sharp shift to the left, connected with the concept of "new socialism", socialist-revolutionists appear on an electoral field of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation which, as you known, is rather conservative and reacts only to familiar symbols (a word "communistic", red flag, a hammer and sickle). Thus "Fair Russia" loses moderately left voters which migrates to Edinaya Russia.

The fourth place of the liberal-democratic party, basically, corresponds to its real electoral weight. Certainly, many voters react not to the name of a party, but on Zhirinovsky's surname who knows how to build election campaign well using methods of scandalous PR. So it could be supposed for sure that on forthcoming elections into the State Duma LDPR will receive a little bit greater percent of voices.

However, it concerns also a number of other parties which due to a strong first three or bright election campaign can essentially strengthen positions. In particular, it concerns the Party of Social Justice (the leader - Alexey Podberezkin) which occupies the fifteenth line in interrogation. Potential of this party, I think, is much more than 0,13% shown by The All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center. According to the data of the same interrogations, 50% of people sympathetic of the Party of Social Justice are - pensioners who are the most disciplined group of the Russian voters. Besides, in questionnaires of The All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center some parties of left-centrist orientation appear (National, Uniform Socialist and so forth) which at the moment either have declared self-dissolution or are on the verge of disintegration. It will become spacious soon in a left-centrist part of a political spectrum.

Unexpectedness in other parts of a political field is possible. For example, the party "Civil Force" of Michael Barshchevsky by the results of interrogations is supported only by 0,11% of voters. I think that this result can be partly explained by the absence of steady link between the name of a party and a surname of the leader, that is basically reperable.

And catastrophic for such well-known party as "Yabloko" index of 0,75% testifies about fast and, in my opinion, irreversible degradation of this organization. By all appearances, "Yabloko" has already gone and the apron stage should be occupied by new political forces.
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