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|3 dec 2016|
International Expert Society Expressed Concern over Chekist Wars in Russia
Roeva Natalya 17.10.2007
As we already informed, in economic capital of the United Arab Emirates Dubai under aegis of the Center of research of conflicts of Institute of problems of globalization scientific conference of the international experts on problems of safety took place on September, 30th - October, 11th.
Unexpectedly program article of the director of Federal Service on the Control over Drug Trafficking Victor Cherkesov under the heading "One Could Not Admit That Soldiers Turn into the Dealers" became one of the most important themes of the conference.
The publication of the head of one of the Russian special services is important for many reasons. Personallity of the author played not the last role. The deputy of the State Duma, the retired general of FSB Alexey Kondaurov, acting on "Echo of Moscow", having emphasized "as to ideology which is stated in his letter, I... don't agree with it and ready to argue on each item" at the same time characterized Victor Cherkesov as follows:
"I know Cherkesov and I want to ascertain that he is a decent and very fair person.... Did he break criminally-remedial code? - No, he did not. Did he fabricate cases? - No, he did not. It was a good professional, a good inspector.... He is highly experienced statesman and when he was preparing his article, certainly, he understood all consequences, including, for himself personally....
I think that person has made a civil act - I treat it so - in relation to his subordinates, in relation to us. That is why he is the first to say that today not everybody are equal before the law... Today the one, who has an administrative resource and influence on law enforcement bodies and judicial system, can create lawlessness. It's one case when it is declared by the lawyers of JUKOS...And another matter,when it is spoken by the nearest colleague of Putin - it's absolutely different. This application is an evidence of crisis for me, it's a forerunner of system crisis in the country".
Let's remind, that in his article Victor Cherkesov approves that Russia is being controlled by "chekist corporation" inside of which severe civil strife takes place, "a war of all against all", threatening destruction to all "corporation" and to the country together with it. Besides "enemies" aspire to destroy the country, "they need, - Cherkesov believes, - to destroy the country, - they need that we as the country, disappear from the world map. And as people - drop out of history".
The author doesn't directly say who these enemies are, but it's easy to understand it from the context, if follow in which direction official propaganda forms the Russian public opinion. Thus 71% of the Russians don't treat themselves as Europeans. As the German "Rheinscher Merkur" writes, that is the results of the interrogation carried out in Moscow by Analytic Center of Jury Levada on request of Brussels center "ES-Russia".
Every second respondent is assured that the European Union threatens independence of Russia. More than 40 % consider that Russia should not be guided by the European values. The number of those who see in the western model of democracy a sample for Russia has made only 16 % - since 1998 this parameter has decreased half. "Though our results shocked the western colleagues, they didn't become a surprise for the Russian sociologists", - the director of Levada-Center Lev Gudkov admitted.
"Other polls of public opinion, - the director of the Kiev bureau of the Center of research of conflicts IPROG, political scientist Vladimir Filin marks, - show the same picture: the first five of external "enemies" in consciousness of the Russians enter three countries of Baltic, Georgia and the USA. Quite a lot of Russians treat the Ukraine also as ‘enemy" after "orange revolution" and after New Year's "oil war" - formally allied Belarus. The Russians also have internal "enemies" - Moslems and the Caucasians, first of all - the Chechens.
Not less, even more interesting is a vision of the present and future of the Russian Federation by Victor Cherkesov. The author of the article considers three scripts:
"The first and the most favourable:... to turn into normal civil society. The more quickly in Russia the high-grade civil society will be generated, the better it will be for everybody. Including my fellow-professionals. It is impossible - it's silly and unpromising - to cling to corporate purchases.... I personally shall never exchange civil rights on some "elite preferences". I know for sure - I am not alone...
Not the best, but "compatible with life" script consists... in completing corporation and to provide with its help long-term stability and gradual way out from deep social-cultural depression.... There are high risks in this script. Including the danger of transformation of the great country in a bog of the sample of the worst Latin American dictatorships with their social isolation and neo-feudalism...
The script not compatible with life consists in repeating of all catastrophic mistakes which resulted in the ruin of the USSR..."
"Very few people doubt that the most favourable script according to Cherkesov is utopia, - Vladimir Filin considers, - creations of a civil society, integration with the West is not wanted by the Russian people, it, by the way, essentially differs from ours Ukrainians in this question - all leading political forces of the Ukraine despite of disagreements support construction of a civil society and entering of the Europe".
"In this connection, - the political scientist believes, - two scripts remain - neo-feudalism or disintegration of the Russian Federation". Then Vladimir Filin said:
"However, one does not exclude the other. The Russian did almost impossible - they turned back a course of history. In 1980th years there was the USSR and socialism. In 1990th years there was no Soviet Union any more. Having accepted on the 12th of June, 1990 the Declaration about the State Sovereignty of RSFSR, the Russians destroyed Soviet Union.
They also destroyed socialism having begun Gaydar's liberal "reforms". Instead of it in already new, unprecedented hitherto country - the Russian Federation - Yeltsin's oligarchical capitalism was established. But it didn't last for long. The coming of the chekist corporation headed by Vladimir Putin marked the transfer from capitalism to neo-feudalism.
Proceeding from the regressive tendency it is possible to expect that the period to feudal dissociation would become the next stage of degradation. And then - the period of Great resettlement of people historically preceded early feudalism when young dynamical tribes, including the ones came from Asia, occupied new and new space replacing there the decayed and degenerated old nations".
Thus, the Russian people headed by the chekist corporation having turned back a wheel of own history and do not wish to enter into the Europe of the 21-st century, inevitably sooner or later will find itself in the Europe of the 5-th century and after that it will descend from a historical stage.
A question is how many time it will take and what will be the consequences of it for the world around? More simply how long "Putin's stability" will last? And what is better for the Ukraine and all other world: disintegration of the Russian Federation or continuation of its existence in neo-feudal form of "sovereign democracy" for the maximum?
On my belief, from especially pragmatical reasons Vladimir Putin's mode - is the blessing for the Ukraine and disintegration of Russia - is an accident. For this reason I was among those who stood at the beginning of public discussion in support of the third term of Putin, for that I was mercilessly criticized in the Ukraine.
Putin's decision to remain in authority after 2008 finished disputes on the theme where Russia would go to. Having declared that he would remain, Putin infracted if not a letter, but the spirit of the Constitution. It, as V.I.Lenin spoke: "Is right in the form, but is a scorn - in essence". In this case the scorn over democratic principles and European norms. It's treated like this on the West now.
For the foreseeable time the West, except for "personally interested" Shereder and Berlusconi, has ceased to consider Russia as the country following the way of the European constitutional democracy and Putin - "the democrat of pure water". But it does not mean that new ‘cold war" will begin in the world. There will be nothing of the kind, the West is pragmatic and consequently will treat Russia as something average between China and Burma.
But they ceased to treat Russia as the European country. And if so, new and future members of NATO - the Ukraine, the countries of Baltic, Georgia and even Azerbaijan - automatically become east advanced posts of the Euro Atlantic civilization, "the front states" owing to which they appear in focus of world attention and receive additional opportunities to benefit from the new geopolitic position.
At that nothing threatens to the Ukraine. By iterations Vladimir Putin has precisely acquired, what he can do on the international arena and what not. He could and should deliver oil and gas to the world market. He could and should do so that the Russian "elite" still have their capitals in the foreign banks.
It is possible to switch off the delivery of gas to the Ukraine (actually - to the Europe) for two-three days and oil - to Belarus. It is possible to deport ethnic Georgians, to arrange Sabbaths of "nashi" near the embassy of Estonia, to subject this country to hacker attacks and its capital - to invasions of hordes of marauders. It is possible to carry out the antiAmerican propagation in mass-media. It is possible, but up to strictly verified limits, to deliver weapon to Syria and Iran and oil - to China. It is possible, at last, commit political murders in the Ukraine, Qatar and the Great Britain.
Vladimir Putin also perfectly understands what is forbidden to him. Firstly, it is forbidden to become the satellite and a power appendage of China. Secondly, it is forbidden to encroach on independence and territorial integrity of the neighbouring countries.
In particular, it is categorically forbidden to encroach at a level of practical actions on Sevastopol, Crimea, East and South of the Ukraine. Though by way of propagation it is not forbidden to Michael Leontev and other "patriots" to discuss it.
Now about the reasons the script of disintegration of the Russian Federation is bad for the Ukraine. Firstly, the chaos in Russia will endanger deliveries of oil and gas to the Ukraine - we haven't yet diversified import of energy carriers and hardly probable that we can make it in the nearest 10-15 years.
Secondly, millions of the Ukrainians live in Russia, they, in case of chaos, can move home. We have no moral right not to accept them but to accept several millions refugees we are not ready.
Thirdly, sharp crisis and even disintegration of Russia which, according to Victor Cherkesov, can happen owing to chekist wars and civil strives, will at once put this significant in every respect country in epicentre of attention of the whole world. Correspondingly everybody would forget about the Ukraine, it will appear on periphery of world attention and world politics.
I'll emphasize once again that for the Ukraine Vladimir Putin - is an ideal variant, an excellent virtual horror story whereas disintegration of the Russian Federation is unmanageable problem".
Director of the Istanbul bureau of the Center of research of conflicts IPROG, political scientist Ruslan Saidov also spoke against untimely disintegration of the Russian Federation:
«Chekist wars have emerged on a surface simultaneously with the moment when independence of Kosovo from Serbia will be proclaimed. The Russian and the Kremlin propagation is entirely on the side of Belgrad on the ground that as Serbs - are Slavs and orthodox Christians, they, ostensibly, have the right to organize genocide of Albanians, whose "fault" is that they are Moslems and they have high birth rate.
Chechen people, on the contrary, sympathizes with brotherly Muslim Albanian people, welcomes independence of Kosovo, creation there the secular democratic state and its subsequent integration into the European Union. But it does not mean at all, that we at a present stage should also strive for independence. We shouldn't.
The Chechen Republic already was independent de facto at presidents Dzhokhare Dudaev and Aslan Maskhadov. But Dudaev and Maskhadov did not supervise situation, the real authority was held by warlords, Arabs came to the country, they started to impose radical Islamism alien to us. Where is the guarantee that it won't repeat?
Some people say that power structures of the president Ramzan Kadyrov are in condition to provide control over situation in the Chechen Republic. Yes, it's so. But we are surrounded by neighbours, who are not safe.
The chaos in Russia will immediately blow up Ingushetia, will provoke the new conflict of Ingush and the Ossets. I agree that power structures of the Chechen Republic, probably, can take Ingushetia under control, though it's far not simple. And what to do with Dagestan if it will also be put into chaos, clan and international showdowns, terror of radical Islamists? Dagestan is bigger than the Chechen Republic, it won't be possible to take it under control, Russia now - is the only power capable to provide at least appearance of stability in Dagestan.
On the other hand, the economic factor is important. Vladimir Putin promised Ramzan Kadyrov to allocate billion dollars a year for restoration of economy and social sphere of the republic during the nearest five years. It is obvious, if there will be chaos in Russia, it will not be executed.
However, some people speak, it is possible to compensate these means with incomes from oil. But it is not serious. Oil refining in the Chechen Republic is still not restored completely. Export of mineral oil through Georgia using gasoline tank trucks is impossible - the road hasn't been built up yet and is practically abandoned.
Export of oil by rail or pipeline Grozny-Baku to Azerbaijan demands preservation of even minimal stability in Dagestan that, in case of general chaos in Russia, can not be guaranteed. In other words, economy of the Chechen Republic if case of receipt of independence, cannot function in normal mode.
On the other hand, Vladimir Putin's decision to stay reduces risks for Ramzan Kadyrov and his people who are not bearable to federal security officials. Call-out of the Chechens to the military forces of Russia and internal troops has been started. Thus they will start to do military service at home, which means the beginning of the process of "chechenization" of federal armies dislocated in the republic.
The transfer of prisoners of the Chechen nationality from prisons of Russia to prisons of the Chechen Republic has begun, though in slow rates. Probably, the moment when the Chechen oil will become the property of the republic is not so far. In other words, slowly but truly a process of formation of the modern secular national state with all necessary attributes passes in the Chechen Republic. So what is the reason to hurry up, to accelerate a course of events? It is not simply senseless, it's harmful and silly.
The Chechen factor was used in the Kremlin internal showdowns not once during the last 20 years. We should not allow to use it any more. It's absolutely unimportant what mode will the Russians have - neofeudalism or something else. It's important that at least for 10-15 years more there would be stability in Russia, that this country wouldn't break up. The life will prompt later to declare independence or to wait a little more".
Expert from the USA acted in support of stability in Russia on the conferences in Dubai:
"The United States now have many problems on the Middle East. These are well-known conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, probably, shortly - in Iran. Intensity in sector Gaza, in relations of Israel with Syria and Lebanon is being kept. There is an explosive situation in Pakistan. Turkey is going to be at war in the north of Iraq - in Kurdistan.
On the other hand, presidential race is ahead and now it's not clear, who will take the White house - Rudolfo Juliani, Hillari Clinton or, maybe, Albert Gor?
In such situation the United States don't need additional problems also in Russia, if so informed person as Victor Cherkesov considers that the war inside former KGB can destabilize Russia, this war should be stopped immediately".
Expert from Saudi Arabia said similarly:
"Possible destabilization of Russia will inevitably switch attention of the Americans to it. Accordingly their participation in affairs of our region will lose its priority. It all will happen at the fact that expansion of Iran aspiring to regional hegemony became obvious.
Iran already supervises the south of Iraq and a part of Bagdad. It is possible then to wait expansion of the Iranian blasting work on Bahrain and in the East province of Saudi Arabia. The USA - are the only one who has potential for military restraint of Iran in the region. Therefore we are not interested that the United States weaken their attention to the problems of the Arabian (Persian) Gulf, distracting, for example, to Russia".
Summarizing opinions of experts and political scientists, it is possible to say that the general disagreement with Victor Cherkesov is that "enemies" ostensibly want disintegration of the Russian Federation and, simultaneously, a consensus with the director of the Federal Service on the Control over Drug Trafficking is that internal chekist wars carried out in Russia should be stopped meaning not to allow destabilizations of situation in the country.
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