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|25 apr 2017|
Timoshenko Is Not the Prime Minister Yet, but the Structure of Her Cabinet Is Already Known
Baranov Anatoly 12.12.2007
In spite of the fact that Julia Timoshenko has not got one voice to become the prime minister of Ukraine at voting in the Supreme Rada, very few people doubt that it will be she who in the near future will head the Cabinet. Apparently, Timoshenko's appointment - is a question of some time and great bargain. But the question in its essence is solved. It is worthy only to consider possible consequences of this event.
It has already leaked into mass-media that posts in Julia Timoshenko's government could be divided as follows:
Alexander Turchinov - First Vice-Premier;
There is no especially unexpected figures in the given list, only little-known. The cabinet will be rather liberal that is also clear. The question is different.
Today they carry out in Ukraine quite reasonable economic policy, much more sensible, than, for example, in Russia and if standard of living of the Ukrainians is a little lower, than of the Russians, it is connected only with the fact that Russia sells oil and gas and Ukraine buys it.
From the point of view of obvious use for citizens of Ukraine and the state as a whole the policy carried out by the Cabinet of Janukovich was rational and effective. First of all, Ukraine lives on means and lives on the results of its work. The country does not have significant natural rent and there is nothing to divide in this case. The Ukrainian oligarches are wolfish and unscrupulous not less than the Russian ones, but they are compelled to be engaged in real sector, manufacture of material benefits. Ukraine does not know "chekist's rent" when more than half of million of former and acting employees of "organs" live and get rich from purely feudal owning of resources of the whole country.
Today the Ukrainian industry is in the best, than the Russian one condition in spite of the fact that there are less direct investments into its restoration, than in Russia. Less investments, more control - means they steal less and more remains, more is spent on destination. Plus to that, the Russian money started to flow in the Ukrainian real sector, because it is better to have capital where there are less security officers and more freedom. Capital which is can't be controlled by "guys from Petersburg" leak on the sly from Russia to Ukraine.
Today the Ukrainian aviaprom is in better condition, than the Russian one. The Ukranian Military and Industrial Complex sells on a foreign market arms and military technics more than on billion dollars. Metal working, chemical industry and other branches gradually increase volumes of production and give decent employment of the population that is facilitated by rather low level of salaries and is appreciable lower, than in Russia, base prices.
Ukraine today experiences building boom, though it's not so scale, as in Russia, but much more motivated from the point of view of supply and demand. The average market price of square meter of a living space in the regional center of Ukraine differs between 1 and 2 thousand dollars, that, on the one hand, reflects growth of solvent demand and, on the other hand, these prices are not prohibitive yet for the ordinary buyer.
All this speaks about successful work of the government and reasonable economic policy - certainly, this policy is absolutely not left, not social democratic, by virtue of that participation of the Communist Party of Ukraine in former ruling coalition looks ambiguously and participation in it of socialists has led to their not getting into the parliament. Meanwhile weighed liberal policy of the Party of Regions, as a whole, finds support of the majority of citizens, basically in the industrial east of the country.
The new Cabinet will inevitably find itself before a dilemma: whether to continue successful policy of the Cabinet of Janukovich or to construct own. There is no talking here about rhetoric - Timoshenko's rhetoric is well-known to everybody. The question is about real policy. For example, whether inevitable repartition of property will not lead to decrease in production efficiency and reduction of workplaces? Whether monetary policy of Timoshenko's Cabinet will be so rational from the point of view of stimulation of national export?
Everybody still remember sharp steps of Timoshenko in the time of her last being prime-minister, for example, manipulations with a rate of grivna. Anecdotical command to meat to become cheaper is also memorable. Quite expected figure of the first vice-premier Turchinov is also made uneasy. Well, there are enough questions...
Certainly, relations with Russia which will hardly improve with Julia Vladimirovna's arrival on a post of prime-minister is among these questions and it's not only a question of import and transit of energy carriers, but also a question of direct related communications for more than 20 million people on the both sides of recently non existed border. We'll say, that even through our FORUM.msk the position which could be described by phrase: "Щоб вi уси здохли, клятi москали!" ("Let you all die, damned Muscovites!") could be felt.
So, there are some questions...
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