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|5 dec 2016|
Civil War Started Again in Tajikistan
23 military men were killed as a result of attack of a column of armed forces of Tajikistan going to a village Garm - administrative center of Rashsky group of regions. Military showdown occurred in gorge Komarob (more than 160 kilometers to the east of Dushanbe) on Sunday, there are losses among military men but exact quantity of victims isn't known for now.
Under official version last few days mopping up operation of the region carried out with the aim of searching for especially dangerous criminals who run away from a pre-trial detention center of the State Committee of National Safety in Dushanbe on August, 23rd is taking place under official version. It's not mentioned for whom they invented such version. Ostensibly about 25 people run away from pre-trial detention center, 7 from them together with the leader are already caught, remained ambushed, attacked military column and killed 23 people. Whether any sane person will believe that escaped convicts don't hide in mountains but attack army columns?
Version of events in Komarobe according to which insurgents of mullah Abdullo - one of irreconcilable leaders of opposition, who after termination of civil war of 1992 - 97 didn't ground arms but went to Afghanistan - started operations against governmental formations from the beginning of the year looks more truly.
During armed opposition in Tajikistan mullah Abdullo supervised the territory of Darbansky area. He didn't recognize agreement on cease-fire in Tajikistan signed in the course of the Intertadjik negotiations in 1994 and his insurgents didn't stop terrorist activity after signing of General Peaceful Agreement in Tajikistan in 1997. In 2000 governmental forces of Tajikistan carried out operation on neutralization of a gang of Abdullo. The main group was ruined, however, Abdullo with the nearest colleagues managed to go secretly to Afghanistan where he was at war on the part of Talibs.
Mullah Abdullo appeared in Tavildarinsky area, his native places, in the beginning of the year, long time he simply wondered from one kishlak to another, met people. Now he started active actions and is successful enough.
I wrote already in summer of last year that Tajikistan is on the threshold of new civil war when governmental armies stormed with application of heavy technique the house of Langarievy - field commanders of "clan of winners" - in a stronghold of the ruling "Kulob's" Kurgan-Tyube clan. However years which pasted after civil war didn't revive economy of Tajikistan, the country became one of the poorest in Asia. "Food supply" is getting reduced even for the ruling clique that leads to internal contradictions already inside inhabitants of Kulob. Not speaking about representatives of other territories - inhabitants of Pamir, Leninabad, Garm demand their share of national wealth. To demand in Tajikistan means to take gun in hand, you can hardly succeed otherwise.
Population of Tajikistan despite huge for not numerous people losses in war during last 10 years has grown from 5 million to approximately 7,5, while gross domestic product has only reduced. Speaking the truth, the country balances on the verge of hunger and in the poorest mountain areas average norm of consumption is considered today as hunger in more succeeding countries.
Thus there are no prospects for the majority of population even for those who belong to privileged clans. Annually more than 1 million Tajiks leave the country to earn money.
It is natural that revenge moods of groups which suffered defeat in war are very strong, especially on Pamir. It will provide to insurgents both support of the population in the form of rear maintenance and unlimited mobilization reserve.
Condition of governmental armies in Tajikistan is sad enough - till now because of deficiency of fuel permission of the first person of the state is necessary for lifting of helicopter in the air. 1 helicopter, two-three armored troop-carriers, maybe, squadron or two soldiers are necessary for strengthening of governmental armies in the rebellious region of Dushanbe. Assault aircraft as that is absent, investigation from air and other attributes of modern war - also.
Troup pullout from the country of the Russian frontier guards the border practically isn't protected, therefore provision of insurgents from the territory of adjacent Afghanistan can be carried out quite freely.
There is a military base of the Russian army (former 201st division) in Dushanbe, the regiment is in Kurgan-Tyube. It, is actually, as well as in last civil war - unique force which can help Rahmon's mode to remain. However recently he has grown strongly cold to friendship with Russia and now it's even difficult to say, whether Russian soldiers will die again for interests of clan from Kulob.
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