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World Crisis Knocked on Our Door by Way of Dollar

World Crisis Knocked on Our Door by Way of Dollar
29.01.2008

During today's special session on the theme of the American currency by means of calculations of Tomorrow it's found out that the average rate already makes 24,59 rouble/dollars. The given parameter is 15 copeck higher official exchange rate of the USA for January, 28th. Continuation of growth of quotations of dollar to rouble on home market meanwhile could be explained by new strengthening of currency of the USA in relation to the European international stock exchanges.

 

Now the parity between the European and American currencies makes 1 euro: 1,4673 dollars, whereas as of 10:00 a.m. Moscow time 1 euro cost 1,4684 dollars. Hence, for rather short period of time the European currency has fallen in price in relation to currency of the USA on the world market on 0,75%. Such jumps in quotations of world currencies themselves are capable to provoke problems.

 

The main theme of the World economic forum in Davos which was finished yesterday became a world economic crisis. On the eve of the meeting the world stock markets fell off and then it became known that bank Societe Generale lost enormous sum of 5 billion euro because of swindling of its trader. Bank crisis has not come yet to Russia but has already knocked at our door, experts warn. In the second half of this year there will be serious complications, with which present officials got used to work on the background of fabulous prices for oil could fail to overcome.

 

The Russian stock market has too fallen. Meanwhile only traders and those few citizens who have put up the capital in PIFS or shares suffer from it. However, if the second wave of crisis will come to Russia, defaults of the private companies and banks can begin here. According to last data from the Central Bank, all external duty of the Russian Federation (both state and corporate) has grown from January, 1st till October, 1st, 2007 from 310,6 up to 430,9 billion dollars. A share of short-term obligations (with repayments period about one year) has grown from 56.7 up to 100.7 billion, at that only 13.1 billion fall at monitory authorities. The rest - on banks and corporations.

- Up to presidential elections and all experts are solidary in it, - editor-in-chief of FORUM.msk Anatoly Baranov believes, - hardly will happen something with economic parameters in Russia. Sufficient reserves are saved up to keep the Russian market awash even if all the world would sway. But these are short-term tendencies, for the nearest months. Only experts could see more remote prospect in Russia, who do not make decisions and are not responsible for anything. Meanwhile the structures of the executive authority last but a day - but they are the very ones that make decisions. Though they also won't take any responsibility.

 

"Two largest mistakes which future management of the country could make - to try to increase expenses of the government in the changed macro-economic conditions and spend currency reserves to support rouble rate", - director of the Institute for the Economy in Transition Egor Gaydar declared.

- No matter how you treat Gaydar, he understands economy, - Anatoly Baranov noticed. - However, he didn't bear responsibility for his estimations, but in fact acting prime-minister also bear no responsibility. But here is where he is right - the rouble is overestimated 2 times minimum and it's better to lower it prior to the beginning of autumn revival of economic and political life. August is the best time for such actions as usually. Not casually all Moscow speaks about the future denomination of rouble, though one of those days assistant of Kudrin rejected such rumour. But first of all, Kudrin's assistants could be found in prisons, for the second, in our country - the more authority reject, the stronger people doubt - they learned through a series of painful incidents, But Gaydar can appear to be right - then authorities will begin to hold rouble in the present sizes illogically. As to the expenses of the government, first of all on the social policy, it's most likely that they won't make mistakes in the Kremlin and will cut down all national projects after elections at once - if it's right to save on purchases of football players and private residences? Medvedev's Uzbek result on elections will be here the main argument - people ostensibly love authority and trust it strongly, it can forbear, "to tighten belts". Isn't it familiar term for those who suffered Gorbachev's perestroika? In fact then the world economy was kept due to the ruin of the USSR and Eastern block. If Putin's Russia is now being feed up as ‘a boar" with which double-dyed zeks run from prison so then to eat it then on the way?

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