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|2 dec 2016|
íichael Delyagin: «McCain - War, Hillary - Chubays, ïbama - Gorbachev. Russia Needs Obama in the USA»
ánna Ivanova 01.03.2008
- Michael Gennadjevich, why presidential elections in the USA caused such steadfast interest in Russia?
- First of all, the Russian society has had time to forget what elections mean and now with children's curiosity looks on the USA: how it could be so, if this all for real there? We have only one person with a real right to vote, he declared his choice in the middle of December and registration of beforehand accepted decision would be made on March, 2nd. As clerks of the CEC say, «do not worry, íÅdvedev will become the president in full conformity with the highest democratic standards».
In the USA everything is different, more normally and more fairly and it bewitches.
On the other hand, at Putin Russia under a thunder of timbals, drumbeat, patriotic hysterics and television games finally lost any influence on the world. Completely - our competitors appreciate him for it. While the American president - as the representative of this or that political force and as a person - influences the whole world including Russia. And it's interesting for us, who will influence us.
- So, how a struggle is going on now?
- A brilliant victory gain "neo-conservatives" which spokesman ícCain. It's clear that everything will change and not one time but meanwhile they act simply superbly - I receive aesthetic satisfaction.
First of all, Romny left racing - ideal «average republican» who would suit all representatives of a party and all sympathizing it... but "neo-conservatives" had own candidate.
On the second step their analytics counted that if Hillary would drop McCain behind, it would be only «on points»: they are basically identical, both are representatives of elite, developed system. The fact that "celluloid" Hillary is not sincere even according to the American standards is compensated by fear before McCain's aggression. Though, if he will take Condolisa Rajs as Vice-president, Hillary could hardly hope for something.
While, as "neo-conservatives" think, McCain tears Obama into pieces...
- Sociological interrogations give small advantage Obama...
- Analytics of "neoconservatives" consider correctly that people behave differently: before alive sociologist they hesitate to show what they consider to be racism, while alone with the ballot paper they will unequivocally vote against "colored".
Therefore republicans rendered Obama some indirect support - but then they saw that he got too big popularity, looked too sincerely, behaved too convincingly and gained popularity even among potentially racial focused layers of the American society.
Therefore recently we have seen the third step - appearance on a proscenium of professional "spoiler", the lawyer on protection of consumers Ralf Naider. As far as it is possible to judge, it is such American Bogdanov who will purposefully get voices of democrats away providing «green light» to McCain.
- And what this not sacred Trinity means for Russia?
- As a result of essential failure of policy in key for them region of the world - on Near and Middle East - the American politicians will sublimate humiliation and uncertainty also in toughening of position towards Russia. Thus undisguised in the last some years aspiration of the Russian heads to demonstrative conflict has taken effect: both republicans and the democrats belonging to traditional establishment declare very rigid attitude to management of Russia, not separating it from the Russian society.
It's widely known that McCain unlike Bush seen in Putin's eyes not an opportunity to trust but only «three letters - KGB» repeatedly suggested to expel Russia from «G8». Hillary Clinton, denying existence of soul in Putin - at that exclusively because of his work in KGB - as it is possible to understand, will transform into the main theme of mutual relations not power, non-distribution of the nuclear weapon or struggle against terrorism implying cooperation but observance by Russia of human rights implying dictatorship. Thus "human rights" in the best traditions of the 90th will be understood first of all not primary rights restrained in modern Russia - for life, work, meal, habitation, public health services, education, safety - but secondary political rights of various minorities from national up to sexual. Thus according to the law of economy of forces they will be satisfied (if they will be) in many respects due to the primary rights of "majorities".
The USA really have an opportunity to borrow in relation to Russia hard line: our share in their foreign trade is insignificantly small and the American investments into Russia are not rather insignificant but are also safe. As well as in negotiations on WTO, in foreign trade and in sphere of investments Russia gave the USA a critical part of what they wanted - and as a result lost its value.
- That is ícCain and Clinton are equally unacceptable for Russia?
- I am not sure. ícCain is rigid and consecutive person. I have such a feeling that he has not forgotten and forgiven that he was brought down in Vietnam by the Soviet rocket when pleasing himself was wiping out inhabited quarters of Hanoi and now is experiencing to our country the same feelings as Bzhezinsky. That one in due time was seriously interested in opportunity of creation of the nuclear weapon destroying only the Russians but leaving alive representatives of other peoples.
He criticizes Putin - and frequently fair - but Putin for him is only a reason to kick Russia which is a real target for him.
ícCain is - true "neo-conservative". He has admitted in memoirs that when he was brought down, he saw a signal of start-up of an anti-aircraft missile but "he was possessed" - it's his own word - with desire to dump bombs on defenceless peace inhabitants and meaningly didn't make an antimissile maneuver. The son of the commander of the Pacific Fleet in the interview condemned the Vietnamese war and, certainly, he cannot forget or forgive it. Though 5.5 years he spent captivated, it is possible to understand contrary to legends distributed backdating, he was rather comfortable there, though at capture he was nearly tore into pieces by those people whom he just bombed.
For Russia ícCain is not criticism of authoritativeness of Putin but real threat of war. One shouldn't overestimate our defensibility: the army as far as it is possible to understand is disorganized and plundered, it can appear that it simply is not capable to resist to systems of arms which will appear in the nearest 2-3 years.
ícCain is a threat of transformation of Moscow to Belgrade of 1999. And Hillary - attempt to return in days of her husband when the USA through liberal fundamentalists carried out «external control» over Russia.
- Belgrade was bombed exactly by Clinton...
- Hillary won't - at least because she does not love him so much as to follow his example. Besides today's democrats have different tools.
- That is Russia needs Hillary?
- Russia needs Obama. If ícCain - war, Hillary - Chubays, ïbama - is something like the American Gorbachev.
The matter is not that he is the only of three who hasn't allowed himself the antiRussian statements. Appearance of Obama itself is caused by the deepest and mass disappointment in old, fuddy American establishment, brightly proved the inconsistency in the broadest spectrum of painful questions - from Iraq up to hypothecary crisis.
Praised American "system" for the second time after Vietnam crackles at the seams - and the instinct of self-preservation of political organism of the USA answers to it by promotion of Obama.
Russia needs him not because he is the only candidate who at all our lacks is going «to wet us in a toilet». Not also because at him the USA, most likely, will concentrate on internal problems, having almost ceased to play an active role in the world as at Carter, giving thus more opportunities for realization of interests of Russia supported by petrodollars.
ïbama is necessary to Russia because he is a president of updating of America who in the long term can increase its competitiveness and strengthen the world order based on economic, instead of a military - ideological competition. This mode is difficult for Russia but other possible modes - based on collision of religious (is unimportant, Judaea-Protestant fundamentalists - "neo-conservatives" or Islamic radicals) or ethnic expansion - because of our weakness remain for us unacceptable.
ïbama is necessary to Russia because he, as once Gorbachev, personifies new, more fair America and can open a door to a new, more harmonious and consequently more profitable to Russia epoch of international relations.
- Whether he has a chance?
- Well, Hillary "will make" him in Texas (as she earlier won in New Mexico despite of sympathies of Spain-speaking to Obama) and after that, most likely, the situation will break in her advantage.
However presidential elections in the USA differ from appointment of the president in Russia as they - at all assiduously making popular during last years lacks of the American democracy - are elections.
And, just as ícCain suddenly crushed «the ideal republican» Romny, Obama can still stand not only against Hillary Clinton but also against McCain himself.
He still has a chance, everything depends on him - we shall wish him success.
As soon as success of Obama gives chance also to Russia.
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