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John McCain Will Play a Role of Ronald Reagan, While Dmitry Medvedev – Michael Gorbachev

John McCain Will Play a Role of Ronald Reagan, While Dmitry Medvedev – Michael Gorbachev
05.03.2008

Dmitry Medvedev's formal election the president of the Russian Federation did not get away uncertainty in relation to the future of internal and foreign policy of the Kremlin. On the contrary, uncertainty has only strengthened.

"Not least of all uncertainty is connected with the fact, - political analyst of FORUM.msk Ruslan Saidov considers, - that in December when Меdvedev was appointed the successor, it seemed to many that Hillary Clinton would become the next president of the USA in whose administration colleagues of her husband, Bill Clinton, with whom the Kremlin liberals such as Alexey Kudrin and Anatoly Chubays have strong personal relations since 19990-th, would dominate.

Meanwhile, now Clinton's election is under a big question. Under my forecast which as I know is shared by many in the Kremlin, John McCain, the veteran of the Vietnamese war, former prisoner of war, "soldier of Ronald Reagan" as he calls himself, most likely, will become the president of the USA.

In Russia John McCain is sometimes wrongly called neo-conservative but it's not so - McCain, on the contrary, - is rather moderate republican. However in relation to the Chekist mode in the Kremlin he is, really, extremely severe. Moreover, probably he would have his hands free on the Russian direction.

The Near and Middle East, so-called struggle against «international terrorism» and radical Islamism were a headache of Bush's administration all last years. Everybody so got used to it that very few people noticed that during the last one and a half year four events which considerably changed situation in the region took place.

Firstly, it is resignation from a post of Minister of Defence of the USA of neo-conservative Donald Ramsfeld and appointment of moderate Robert Gates. Secondly, promulgation of the report of National Investigation of the USA about nuclear program of Iran in which is said that Iran didn't carry out military nuclear researches since 2003. This event marks refusal of the USA from drawing impact across Iran and opens a way to the American - Iranian dialogue which, probably, will begin after expected defeat of supporters of Mahmud Ahmadinejad on forthcoming in this month elections in Меndjlis.

Thirdly, Gates began informal dialogue with leaders of tribes and heads of Sunnite resistance in Iraq headed by Isad Ibragim, former vice-president at Saddam Hussein, present leader of party Baas. As a result the level of violence in «Sunnite triangle» for the last year has sharply decreased and Iraqi "Al-Kaida" appeared to be isolated. In other words, in Iraq as in the Chechen Republic of 2001-2002 qualitative breakdown in direction of pacification and search of compromise outlined.

At last, fourthly, February elections in Pakistan which ended with shattering defeat both of radical and "moderate" Islamites showed that the threat of islamization of nuclear Pakistan is - a myth. Though sharp interclan contradictions in the country remain but Islamism, especially in Punjab and Sinde - key Pakistan provinces - is not a serious problem any longer.

All mentioned means that by the moment of inauguration of the new president of the USA the Near and Middle East, struggle against «international Islamic terrorism», probably, will move from the center to periphery of the American foreign policy. It's to great displeasure of those both in the USA and in Israel who during all last years comfortably felt themselves on a field of struggle against «radical Islam». It also refers to the Russian «fighters with Islam», such as Eugeny Satanovsky who, feeling change of paradigm, losing ideological ground under their feet start making direct falsifications, searching for "Islamic radicalism" even on the Balkans where there never were own Islamites and the aliens from the Near East were resolutely expelled by local leaders in 1990th years.

It would seem that it has no relation to Russia and Dmitry Medvedev. Probably, it has direct relation - if John McCain ("Soldier of Ronald Reagan") becomes the president the USA, the place of the Near East and "terrorism" in the center of foreign policy priorities of America can be occupied not at all by China as it's possible to assume (McCain speaks almost nothing about China) but for the nearest years Russia. Thus МcCain looks quite as Reagan's analogue, whereas Меdvedev is destined to play the role of Michael Gorbachev".

Ruslan Saidov's opinion as a whole is shared by the head of the Ukrainian edition of FORUM.msk Vladimir Filin: "At Reagan the USA rigidly pressed on Gorbachev on the broad circle of international and internal problems. And it, finally, had known effect. McCain's tactics, probably, will be similar.

The more that McCain is evidently not decline to confrontation with China, the Middle East problems remain but their sharpness tends to become dull, with India the USA establish strategic partnership, they enter the Indian market of the weapon and nuclear technologies superseding therefrom Russia, whereas in relation to one more rising giant, Brazil, МcCain plans to cancel import duties on import of ethanol that makes Brazilians important players in the power market of America and simultaneously, strongly adheres them to the USA.

John McCain's basic stake in relation to Russia, probably, will be made in two directions. Firstly, to support the postSoviet states - Ukraine, Georgia, the countries of Baltic. One shouldn't forget that МcCain said directly that in due course, probably, he would bring attention to the question on independence of peoples of North Caucasus.

Secondly, МcCain obviously will help Dmitry Medvedev to become new Gorbachev having offered the new president of Russia to prove in practice the wrong of the words that Putin ostensibly remains "puppeteer" and Меdvedev is - his "puppet".

In other words, "dispensation" of Medvedev and Putin is the most important question not only of the Russian internal but also world policy of the nearest months and years".
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