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|8 dec 2016|
The Kremlin Is Ready to Make Demonstrative Nuclear Attack against Ukraine in the Southern Part of Pripyatsky Bogs
As Newsru.ua informs, application of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with criticism of applications of the Russian officials concerning the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine is distributed in headquarters of the United Nations in New York as official document of the General Assembly of the United Nations.
In the application is emphasized that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is seriously worried about applications of the Russian officials in relation to Ukraine. "These applications having frankly the antiUkrainian character, call in question territorial integrity of Ukraine and represent direct intervention in its internal affairs", - is emphasized in the document which is quoted on Tuesday by news service of the United Nations.
"It's absolutely unacceptable that the Russian Federation as one of the parties of the memorandum and constant member of UNSC which is responsible for maintenance of international peace and safety undertakes unfriendly steps in relation to Ukraine, puts under doubt its territorial integrity and its sovereign right to make decisions concerning own foreign policy choice", - is spoken in the application. It's stressed there that in such situation it became more and more obvious that Euro-Atlantic choice of Ukraine - is the only way to guarantee safety of the state.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine demanded from the Russian side to stop "practice of threats" and to observe items of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between two countries. "In view of that position expressed by the Russian Federation can have unpredictable consequences for the world and safety, I ask to distribute this letter and the appendix to it as the document of General Assembly to the item 12 of the agenda", - is spoken in the covering letter of the permanent representative of Ukraine in the United Nations Jury Sergeev.
Let's remind during last weeks a number of the Russian officials headed by Vladimir Putin were noticed in making the antiUkrainian statements and threats to the address of Ukraine.
In particular, the State Duma of the Russian Federation offers executive authority to denounce a "big" Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine in case the last will join NATO Membership Plan of Action, while the chief of the Joint Staff of Armed forces of the Russian Federation general Jury Baluevsky has declared that Russia will undertake actions directed on maintenance of its interests "up to military actions".
Then, the newspaper "Commersant" writes, Putin very transparently hinted that "if Ukraine nevertheless will be accepted in NATO, the state would simply stop its existence". That is actually he threatened that "Russia can begin divestiture of Crimea and East Ukraine", - the newspaper quoted the words of its source.
Let's remind that shortly before it Vladimir Putin publicly threatened to aim at Ukraine nuclear rockets. Besides the Kremlin on a regular basis blackmails Kiev with switching-off of gas, at that already twice the threat was made real.
Meanwhile just recently propaganda machine of the Kremlin acted with new threats to the address of Ukraine. In controllable by the administration of the president of Russia, in particular, by Gleb Pavlovsky "Russian Magazine" program article of Igor Dzhadan close to the centers of making military-political decisions of the Russian Federation was published, with small reductions it's brought to the attention of the readers below.
There are first of all questions to potential of the Russian armed forces, to ability of their command to plan in case of necessary operation and to put it into practice. What operation on liberation of Ukraine and what are in general its chances for success? Here there can be variants. Depending on development of the political environment the scenario of power intervention can follow three basic ways. At the most limited variant the Russian armed forces can occupy only the Crimean peninsula. Such scenario is probable, if the management of Ukraine will continue to contravene articles of the Big Contract regarding basing of the Black Sea fleet. In that case, having declared about necessity to strengthen protection of objects, Russia can launch landing operation using Fleet Marine Force to occupy key elements of infrastructure of Crimea: air stations, ports, road centres.
The Ukrainian units in Crimea are not exposed to direct attack, if showing no resistance. Owing to fluctuations of Kiev management serious resistance at the given scenario is excluded. Unique overland force which resistance is expected is the elite Ukrainian separate battalion of sea infantry of the troops of Coastal defense of Ukraine billeted in Feodosiya. It, however, is a limit of sea infantry of this state. Separate firing on the sea and rare shooting on the Russian military planes are also probable. Kiev also will not send the army to "liberate" peninsula baring other directions. In fact Kiev authority never enjoyed even the slightest support in the Crimea and was always kept using purely administrative force. Crimea for Ukraine is - more likely a headache of which "orange" would hasten to get rid if only they could do it without making harm to the image and in parallel having fixed control over other part of Ukraine. In this case the conflict from a power stage will quickly pass to a stage of political strike in the international institutes. Further positive reaction of the Russian majority of the Crimean autonomy and also fast reorientation of local elites which couldn't be counteracted by "orange" authority from Kiev is completely predicted.
If Russia will not withdraw its military troops for some political reasons, a referendum about independence of the Crimean republic and the further, it is probable in some years, formation of the union of Crimea with Russia or even joining in the structure of Russia is quite possible, if by then Moscow will decide that such step is justified from the point of view of political logic....
Ethnic self-identification of a part of the population here is not determined yet up to the end, however practically all population without exception treats Russia positively. Here the key industry of Ukraine closely integrated with the Russian industry is concentrated, especially in the sphere of military-industrial complex: all Ukrainian rocket production, factories on manufacture of turbines for the atomic power station, ships and aircraft.
This population does not possess any other steady identification, except for the Russian one and in case of reunion with Russia will be completely dissolved. Secondly - high educational level of the population of the southeast of Ukraine, its ability and desire to be built in created by Russia clusters of new economy. As well as manpower of the southeast of Ukraine traditionally possess increased mobility as population itself consists of migrants from different areas of Russia.
Connection in this or that form to the Russian civilized project of 15-20 million ethnic Russians will allow to strengthen a nucleus of the Russian civilization....
Taking into account fear before attack of Kiev, the Ukrainian army, most likely, cannot put for standing off the Russian attack more than five mechanized brigades. The same destiny will be with aeromobile parts of Ukraine: they will be tightened to capital instead of participating in military operations.
Operation can begin from the crushing of the Ukrainian fleet by impacts from air and anti-ship rockets and capture of places of its basing in Odessa, Ochakov, Black Sea, Novoozerny, Nikolaev, Evpatoria and Feodosiya by means of forces of the 810-th separate regiment, the 882-nd assault combat battalion and the 382-nd separate battalion of sea infantry of the Black Sea fleet, at the support of four regiments of the 55-th division of sea infantry (Vladivostok) thrown by air from Pacific fleet. Separate tank battalion of sea infantry of the Black Sea fleet would be reasonable to put over from Novorossisk to Odessa jumping-off base used for the development of success of infantry landings forces.
Effective investigation which is easy to organize taking into account friendly character of local population serves here a pledge of speed and small losses. In particular, too active putting over of the Ukrainian Air Force units to the south if it would begin, would create threat of speeding up of Dnepr, anticipatory air impact on runways of air stations of Kherson, Odessa and Nikolaev is strongly recommended in that case. Planes of tactical aircraft of the Black Sea fleet with anti-radar rockets should be than involved into softening of the Ukrainian air defence.
Actually, the main fights with remained faithful to Kiev "orange" units are expected in Odessa and Nikolaev areas as an exit to Black Sea is the most valuable for the Ukrainian Atlanticists and their owners.
Such actions would not have direct military value, however, they would show determination of Russia and would even more frighten such countries as Germany and France. Being afraid to be involved involuntary in the direct conflict with Russia, the last would demand to stop intervention and in the most fortunate case direct split of NATO could happen from which Russia would win even more. However, proceeding from the needs and opportunities of the Russian economy Russia should not postpone solving of the conflict. Contrary to the USA in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia is quite capable to solve it victoriously, not being involved in wearisome, long-term struggle against ethnically alien population....
The third variant of succession of events assumes in addition to occupation of southeast establishment of the control over Kiev and the central areas. Realization of such scenario, naturally, will demand higher price, however it has advantages: Russia returns to itself control over the oldest center of the Russian spirituality and statehood....
The target of overland mobile forces and air armies in this case is to cut off Kiev from the communications connecting city with the western areas not to admit flooding of the city with armor alive force in the person of western Ukrainian home guard and dragging out of city fights.
Units of the 8-th army corps of Ukraine can render resistance in Kiev area, especially the 1-st separate guard tank brigade earlier deserved attention of "orange" management.
Demonstrative air nuclear attack in stratosphere in the area of southern part of Pripyatsky Bogs made at the night would extremely help in this case. It would not damage essentially but for bringing out of operation electric mains and electric devices in radius of 100 km. But it would be seen in Lvov and even in Poland which hate "Muscovites". It would make at once hotheads sober, clearly having shown serious determination of the Kremlin....
Special place in operation will be occupied by lightning capture of Kiev Laurels and its retention up to arrival of the basic forces. Units of the special departments intended for this operation should be ready to operate in full blockade for some time. In the process of mopping-up of the capital from the rests of "orange" Moscow can concentrate on diplomatic front where main "fights" are expected.
They are expected to be hard, however, as a result international situation of Moscow would become only stronger, as it would become clear to those who have doubts that it is better to be friends of Russia, than enemies. Certainly, in the capitals especially persisting in unfriendliness a period of some kind of shock will become, however, when the temperature of relations is without it near to absolute zero, there is simply no place to fall lower. In fact because of globalization the strongest world states depend now on Russia not to the smaller degree, than Russia from them....
Another close to administration of the president of Russia analyst and ideologist - Alexander Dugin echoes to Igor Dzhadan on the site KM.ru, in the exclusive comment, in particular, he said:
"Intensity in the relations between the Russian Federation and Georgia promptly accrues. Till December (when a decision on granting Georgia and Ukraine of NATO Membership Action Plan will be made) we will hear, how ominously the clocks tick. Therefore it is necessary for us to undertake some actions to break introduction of Georgia into NATO.
At that already today is clear that the Americans will act symmetrically. By the moment of inauguration of the new president of the Russian Federation destructive networks on Caucasus will be activated. It's enough to look what is happening now in Dagestan where almost every day responsible heads are killed. While in Ingushetia there is simply «color revolution». Somehow it has been blocked but it still proceeds. The problems which are objectively generated by specificity of the Chechen society, someone starts to play them out artfully.
Coming back to the conflict between Kadyrov and Yamadaev, I also do not exclude presence here of the third force which understands specificity of the Chechen society and specially adds oil to fire. So that having played on national anarchism of the Chechens, to shake situation in this region and create a problem for Russia. It is especially important before serious actions from our side in relation to Georgia.
The Americans in general very competently occupy themselves with geopolitics. If they will again provoke the conflict on Northern Caucasus, Russia can "shake" strongly. All our victorious statements that here «peace, stability and prosperity» have been fixed are, certainly, an element of information war and propagation. Real picture is absolutely another....
Because in case of aggravation of situation all this American «the fifth column» which we have taken care of will necessarily let us know about itself. As it will decompose determination of the Russian management to take real measures on correction of a situation....
It is necessary to understand that in the process of approaching of a day of joining of NATO Membership Action Plan byGeorgia and Ukraine, Russia will be inevitably involved into the conflict on Northern Caucasus and in Ukraine. Because we cannot allow joining of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. We simply have no right on it. It's the same as though Putin has recognized Hasavjurtovsky world. Recognition of joining of Georgia and Ukraine of NATO - the same as recognition of independence of the Chechen Republic at the general Lebed.
It would mean to agree with geopolitic defeat of Russia. Therefore Putin and Меdvedev do not have even such prospect as to admit joining of these countries in NATO. It's possible not to admit such scenario of succession of events only rendering active support to separative processes in these countries, undertaking diplomatic actions of a corresponding direction".
The head of the Ukrainian edition of FORUM.msk Vladimir Filin said that he "is grateful to Igor Dzhadan and Alexander Dugin for frankness and precise narrative of intentions of the Kremlin in relation to Ukraine, that, undoubtedly, will help the Ukrainian people to realize more precisely who is their enemy".
"If war is inevitable, we, certainly, shall fight, - Vladimir Filin, the participant of war in Afghanistan and several local conflicts continued. - In any case Ukraine should enter NATO as it's necessary to run away from the inadequate Kremlin covered with nuclear madness as from a plague" as soon as possible.
Vladimir Filin compared Vladimir Putin with the president of Iran Маhmoud Ahmadinedjad inclined to scandalous statements: "The Iranian leader regularly threatens to destroy Israel and to move all Jews whether to Alaska, or to North Pole. As far as I know, Israelis treat these threats from the state with nuclear ambitions seriously. Why the Ukrainians being in similar situation, when they are openly threaten with nuclear war, should feel something different to the source of the threats?""The most reliable and radical way of solving of a problem, both for Israel and for Ukraine, - Vladimir Filin believes, - is liquidation of a source of threats. In our case it's - only the Kremlin mode or the Russian Federation as the state - it would be better if not the Ukrainians, or the Chechens and not at all the USA and NATO but the Russians will make decisions. While, certainly, it is not too late".
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