Кто владеет информацией,
|4 dec 2016|
The Russian – Chinese Relations – It’s Not a Marriage but a Succession of Unfortunate Dates
What Does China Wants from the Russians
The president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev who just recently entered a post in the past days off finished his first foreign visit as the head of the state. The destination surprised nobody - Меdvedev visited Peking. During the trip headings in newspapers looked quite predictably: Меdvedev and president Hu Tszintao condemned plans of the USA on placing of system Anti-Missile System in Europe and East Asia.
The United States assert that these systems are called to promote protection of their allies against possible attacks of Iran and Northern Korea. Moscow and Peking really do not trust in it but one thing is clear: the train has already left. Russia and China have to decide one by one how to react to creation of antimissile board.
But in messages of news agencies which appeared directly after visit the deep meaning of a meeting of Hu and Меdvedev was missed. The most important is that nothing happened during the meeting. If external world had access to the data of the Chinese investigation - the Ministry of National Safety - the report about Medvedev's visit, written by one of regular Peking experts in what concerns Russia (so that not to try to transfer specificity of "the Chinese English", we'll admit that that expert received education in the USA), addressed to the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and National Security Council would look like this.
"Next unsuccessful appointment. Very young Russian president - he is only 42 and he looks even younger in reality - were saying the same things as the old one that should not be surprising as Меdvedev "keeps place" for Putin - the present prime minister.
Let's grasp the nettle at once: interests of China in what concerns Russia have nothing in common with the American plans of Anti-missile System. We definitely have enough money to increase nuclear arsenal if we sincerely consider that anti-missile system is directed against us but we should adhere to the approach "let's live and see": our American sources inform that Оbama who, probably, will become the new president will shelve plans related to this system as he dreams that all loved America. Let's live and see.
We need to strengthen trust in relations with Russia on questions of bilateral safety. The question is about our mutual relations face to face, confidentially. To tell you the truth, for last two years we have settled some disputes on borders and we continue to buy the Russian weapon but there is one sign which would show to all observers that a new era in our relations has really begun and trust at last has really superseded suspiciousness. It is necessary that the Russians sold us oil and gas - in big quantities and - under reasonable price.
As the Americans like to say: "It's not a rocket technics". All is simple, as clear as a day. The Russians have oil and gas - tons and tons - and we require oil and gas. Energy carriers are necessary for us today and will be necessary tomorrow and through some tens years - also. But we fail to conclude with Moscow transaction, I mean transaction on oil and gas. We negotiated indefinitely - and within last four years distributed in international press a turn of optimistic semi-true applications - but in fact we have no real results.
It's true that they agreed to sell us uranium for the total cost of 1 billion dollars. As against some people who unceasingly chatter about global warming but do not counteract to it in any way we considerably increase capacities of nuclear power. It is new "Chinese Syndrome", guys. (Here the film is meant - a thriller about investigation of danger of failure on the American atomic power station where it's affirmed: if nuclear reactor will break down in America, the radio-activity will reach other side of a planet - China).
But most of all we need hydrocarbons - oil for 25 thousand new cars which daily go on streets of China, in fact it's not some hybrid of "Toyota Prius". Natural gas is necessary to us for power stations. For years we are discussing various offers but we can not split difference. The Russians want that we paid for gas not less, than rich Europeans.
Alas, we cannot pay such a price - anyway if they want us to finance initially construction of a gas main and give bribes to all Moscow. The adviser on world power, the American of the Chinese origin Edward Chou once said that the Russian - Chinese relations in the field of power was not a marriage but "a succession of unsuccessful dates".
Chou is right in many respects. By the way, therefore only one month prior to the summit which took place in the past days off we gave the Russians certain sign - we signed long-term contract on deliveries of the liquefied gas with Qatar. The sum of the transaction - 60 billion dollars. We wanted to show the Russian side, that we have choice and Moscow cannot dictate the price to us. So, we showed. Actually, we trust sources of supply in the Near East more, than the Russian one. Eventually, we were not at war with anybody in the Near East, while there was war with the USSR in 1969, at that the conflict hardly escaped from under control. Now, certainly, situation has much more improved. But the Russians are near by, from that side of the common border and instead of considering our huge population and prompt economic growth gold chance for economy their Ministry of Defence and security service twitch till now looking at us.
It was described long time ago by Nikita Khrushchev but nothing changed since then. The Russians see that their enormous territory is rather deserted and there are treasures in its bowels and believe that once we shall not resist against temptation to grasp a slice to ourselves.
It's silly to think so from their side but what could be done here? We shall buy energy carriers in other places meanwhile. Eventually, the Americans still patrol Persian Gulf guaranteeing that all oil and gas which we shall get there (including Iranian!) will reach China without undue incident.
This расклад suits us - at least, at present. The fact that, despite of all loud words about anti-missile system if to put today a question point-blank: "Whom do we trust - the Americans or the Russians - less?", the answer is obvious. Do svidanya, Mr. Medvedev ".
From editorial board: Constant author of FORUM.msk Andrey Piontkovsky has recently shared on "Grani.ru" impressions from a seminar in the Higher school of international relations in Washington, on which the professor from China Pan Guang, rather close to circles of the Communist Party of China determining a foreign policy of People's Republic of CHina, acted with report «Shanghai Organization of Cooperation: New Tendencies». Here you are some basic theses of the report of comrade Pan:
"There are no serious collective economic projects SCO in the countries of the Central Asia. The Russians would like to carry out them through those structures in which as it seems to them they dominate - the CIS, the Euroasian union - but these are empty organizations, they have signed more than thousand documents but none of them work. Therefore we conclude serious bilateral agreements with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tadjikistan.
Two years ago Vladimir Putin visited us. He spoke about some "power club". Till now we don't understood what is it. In general if it's possible to organize the club consisting of the country - supplier and the country - consumer? The Russians are interested only in the price for energy carriers.
They threaten Europeans that if those will not accept their price, they will sell gas and oil to us. Then they come to us and say that if we shall not agree to their conditions, they will sell everything to the Europeans.
If it's possible to agree with them at all? We signed an agreement with Khodorkovsky and they imprisoned him. Since then there are only futile conversations. During this time we constructed an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan.
Well, in general, when in 2001-2003 they had good relations with the West, they didn't recollect both China and SCO at all. While now when they need some political support in the East, they again come to us.
For some reason SCO is considered to be the antiAmerican organization. In my opinion, it's a deep mistake. Separate members of SCO can have frictions with the USA but it doesn't mean at all that SCO as a whole is the antiAmerican organization. For example, a number of countries of ASEAN have problems with the USA but whether ASEAN - is the antiAmerican block?
We are very much disturbed with deterioration of situation in Afghanistan. For clear reasons we cannot participate in military operations under command of NATO as we are not a member of it. But it is possible to think of the other format. In Southern Lebanon, for example, there are now about thousand Chinese soldiers under mandate of the United Nations. But what does Southern Lebanon mean for our safety in comparison with Afghanistan near our borders?!"
Mentioning of Afghanistan by comrade Pan, probably, is not for nothing. As our political analyst Ruslan Saidov said yesterday on FORUM.msk "display on TV of arrested person Usam Ben Laden would be an advantageous theme in the American election campaign".
"As it is possible to assume, between the USA and China on which border, probably, Ben Laden hiders, there is a tender about conditions on which the Chinese would agree not to hide "terrorist № 1" on their territory that will make his detention practically inevitable", - Ruslan Saidov builds a hypothesis.
Thus he does not exclude that from the part of the USA "tender with China about Ben Laden's destiny is being conducted by the same people who in 1980 year conducted the tender with Imam Khomeini about that seized in Teheran hostages - the American diplomats - would not be released before presidential elections on which James Carter was confronted by Ronald Rejgan".
Ruslan Saidov also added that "today neither America, nor China is ready to frontal confrontation with each other. If it's so, tactical agreements not only on Ben Laden's destiny and creation of quiet international background for the period of carrying out of Olympiad in Peking, but also on more serious questions, including, Russia are quite possible".
"From time to time I meet in English-speaking blogs messages of bloggers-Chinese, - Ruslan Saidov said. - Blog-sphere is not accessible in the most continental China that complicates studying of public opinion in this country a little. But the mood of English-speaking bloggers-Chinese, aggression of their tone concerning Primorski Krai and the Amur Region Territory divested from China by imperial Russia 150 years ago differs just a little from what the public who has gone mad about Crimea and Sevastopol writes in comments on FORUM.msk.
In his turn, Andrey Piontkovsky, summarizing his conclusions about the nature of "Great friendship", writes: "The Russian еurasianism is historically secondary, it's a function of insult on the West and carries out for the Russian "elite" a role of no more than a psychological lining in critical days of its relations with the West.
What relation have China, India, Serbian "brothers", the Iranian or North-Korean dictators to it? It's no more than the momentary occasions necessary for the Russian "elite" suffering by a manic - depressive syndrome for sorting out of its relations with eternally hated and eternally favourite West. Existential Russian question "Do You respect me?" is not to the casual drinking companion but to heavens of the West.
The Chinese, by the way, realize it well and treat the Russian sporadic advances consequently skeptically and with inevitable doze of indulgent and haughty contempt".
Natalya Roeva, political observer of FORUM.msk
© 1998-2016 FORUM.msk