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Our Readers Estimated Medvedev’s Chances to Come out of Putin’s Shade As Not Very Optimistic

Our Readers Estimated Medvedev’s Chances to Come out of Putin’s Shade As Not Very Optimistic
Baranov Anatoly 11.07.2008

So, we decided to sum up the results of our interrogation on a theme: "Whether Medvedev will become the true president and when?"

Interrogation lasted quite long, as a result its representativity appeared to be high enough - almost 2300 respondents, though selection was not absolutely casual - FORUM.msk was visited, certainly, the politicized public. Well, what's the use from opinion of "aunt Dusya" who draws her representations about the Russian political circles upon TV and chatting with other aunts? As a matter of fact, this interrogation among interested politicized audience answers a question - how does informed, politicized reader, not necessarily the Russian see the prospect of new presidency?

So, almost a half of interrogated, with big breakaway from other positions answered - "He will never become" (1056)!

Actually, there is no need to comment further - the majority of people do not see any prospect of independent presidency of Medvedev. If to add to this question the one which got the third place - "What Medvedev You are talking about?" (282), it turns out that about 12% interrogated do not see not only the prospect but president Medvedev himself.

Whether it is good for the country which already has one leg got stuck in fascism and another being uncertainly hover somewhere at the edge? Меdvedev is being perceived as a chance of more democratic, more European rate of internal policy but meanwhile these hopes are justified just a little. A little - means in no way.

It would be interesting to understand, certainly, who estimates situation with prospects of new board so skeptically - in fact the given estimation can be received from completely different positions. On the one hand - it could be supporters of "firm hand" and Putin's third term, "Putin's followers". The question of the third term which had many supporters was solved negatively. Though prime-minister Putin with the powers essentially exceeding presidential ones is in fact also a variant of the third term, at that even more resembling the German variant familiar from history with president Gindenburg and chancellor Shiklgruber. It doesn't matter that our "ginderburg" is young and is not going, obviously, to depart from this life and our chancellor is not lance - corporal but the whole lieutenant colonel, who besides had been the president for 8 years.

But it can be also opponents of both Putin and Меdvedev and a system of authority connected with them. It can be also passive supporters of Medvedev already got disappointed in him.

I believe, it is necessary to try to answer this question in the following interrogation.

The second place though with threefold breakaway from the first place was occupied by the answer "He is already true president" (331). Probably, this answer should be understood as that there will be nothing else, we shouldn't wait. As to consider that president Medvedev today possesses full authority is too fondly for the readers of FORUM.msk.

Other answers are optimistical enough and belong, most likely, not to Putin's supporters but to those who expects something from Меdvedev. They differ only by degree of optimism:

Will become but approximately in half-year (108)
Will become but in a year - a year and a half (169)
Will become but by the end of presidential term (100)
Will becomes on the second term

Here I would note that it's almost 650 respondents, that is more than a quarter of interrogated. That is more than a quarter of the interrogated representatives of politicized audience consider prospects of Medvedev's boarding quite optimistically. Probably, they are "Medvedev's followers".

Here, to tell you the truth, arises a question - if support of the president Medvedev in the politicized part of a society is a little more than 25%, whence did he get such remarkable percent at presidential elections?

There are, perhaps, only two answers - either firm "putin's followers" actively voted for him from the very beginning perceiving Medvedev's board as a kind of "the third term" of Putin. Or lacking percents were simply "painted" - by supporters of former authority - building on dependence of the new president and by way of those falsifications strengthening that dependence.

Natural question, certainly, arises - what should be done now by Medvedev?

Well, the first, most simple way - to continue playing a role of a good boy, who was allowed to drive a car by grown-ups.

Everything speaks for the fact that Меdvedev has already chosen other way - a way of gradual mastering de facto of that authority which has been presented to him de jure. Echoes of hardware fights reach us, rustles of chairborne struggle but our remoteness from the first persons does not allow us to say with confidence that it's - a struggle between Medvedev and Putin or attempt of microclans in the environment of one of them to simulate struggle, to aggravate relations and to improve essentially using this conflict own position as the first persons and not so position of these persons.

Dissolution of the illegitimate, elected with many infringements Duma could become the most radical step of president Medvedev. At that not simply dissolution but return to initial principle of formation of parliament, by the way fixed in the Constitution. Jury Mukhin spoke about it one of these days in details on FORUM.msk (earlier at the Council of National Assembly). On the one hand, return to majority system of general election in the Duma will become, undoubtedly, the denying of Putin's authoritative administrative reform, while on the other hand - will give Меdvedev an opportunity to get own legitimacy, not basing upon either Putin's authority, or "Edinaya Russia".

The question, certainly, is, whether Medvedev will have enough nerve - including also determination to base upon that political and public forces which have been declared by his predecessor "taboo". Without it he would hardly succeed in anything - Medvedev's own administrative resource is insignificant, he has no structured in a society mass support (a party, a clan, a class).

Therefore scepticism of the overwhelming majority of our respondents concerning prospects of the new president is quite understandable.


Materials on a theme:

Jury Mukhin: There Is Nothing to Discuss Here - There Is No State Duma in Russia!

Elected President "Forgot" That the Duma Is Also Authority

In the Fascist State Referenda Are Carried Out Only in Fuhrer's Support

All on Struggle against Worms!

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