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|20 jan 2017|
The Pipe, Genocide and Hurray Speeches
Оleg Sudakov 23.09.2008
The meaning of what is going on in Administration is unknown to the majority, we only can guess judging from decrees - decisions. Sometimes something reveals but politics stands on the latent motive and war in Ossetia is not an exception. The Georgian president was sane, opposition stuck in waiting but why did Saakashvili decide to organize genocide in August? It rushed immediately from TV reports - semi-official organ is convinced of the right to pacify the Georgians, liberals based on violation of sovereignty, the red bevels on negotiations with EU while the majority - dumbly froze in waiting. How should we treat it, what should be done about it? Think and help yourself.
Certainly, introduction of troops is justified, independence of the Ossetians and Abkhazians - is a kind deed but "the Georgian failure" are not cleared away up to the end. Evil deeds and disasters of war - consequences, while the reasons are somewhere in a shadow, between lines. It's well-known that war is collision of economic interests and if money rule the world, bankers order soldiers. The moment for attack was inconvenient: maneuvers in Northern Ossetia had hardly come to the end, Olympiad in Beidzin started, there were no threats from Sukhumi and Tskhinvali and Tbilisi was under control. What is the reason to go against common sense risking to lose everything?
Russia ceased to be perceived as serious regional force. Its rate is cautious, it doesn't break the European standards, its statements about the "near abroad" are miserable, it grows rich and snaps at summits. The Kremlin authoritarianism and pressure upon opposition also frighten - one more occasion to carp, say, it will excuse itself more often. However everything changes, the world doesn't remain the same and once the quantity of rhetoric suddenly will break through new quality of relations. Changes got outlined in Ossetia.
The old Europe has become staid long time ago, it holds the style of the world judge and doesn't solve its problems with tanks. For this purpose there is NATO and transatlantic partner works rigidly, if benefit is obvious, the European Community "will easily say yes". The States have other way the things are - shame in Iraq, elections are near at hand, hypothecary crisis and failure in Georgia - Ukraine in Bucharest. The revenge and reserve for Оbama-McCain are necessary - to kindle the region or to intimidate Russia. It's impossible to ride a pony.
Another aspect - the project of gas main Nabucco from Тurkmenia through Azerbaijan and Georgia to Austria. It is important Black Sea - Caspian zone of interests but with looking back at Russia. While Moscow supervises deliveries of gas, Europe is dependent and a resource of its nuclear and coal power stations are on limit. Soon the European Community will have increase deliveries of gas on third. Minus is obvious and there are just few months before elections in the USA. That's how military plan got ripened.
It is known, Saakashvili won't turn his head without approval of Washington, therefrom carte blanche on return of Abkhazia and Ossetia was received. If Georgia will quickly cope, Russia will not dare to interfere, after "unification" of the country the Russian peacemakers will be replaced by the European ones. Georgia will find interethnic stability and it can be accepted in NATO. Despite of "costs" as dead Ossetians and Abkhazians, Europe will approve actions of Saakashvili and protection of a pipe will be provided. Russia will start protesting but will lose influence on the Southern neighbours and it will be possible to press Ukraine finally. It's cynical but cheap fuel is preferable and extrusion of Russia from the region is so desirable.
In case of defeat of the Georgians benefit is also obvious. Separation of the republics will take off intensity from Georgia clearing away the way to NATO, while the pipeline can be dug right under the very nose of the Russians. Europe will get occupied with activity in the east, there will be the rockets placed in Poland and the Ukrainian question will not lose urgency. Noise in Ossetia will place Iraq on background and the Americans will again become indignant with Russia. Temptation to receive military bases on Black Sea is great and if the future president will reduce armies, places for introduction are ready. It's will be necessary to make sacrifice of Saakashvili but the pro-American opposition is on call - Burdzanadge or Gamkrelidge - it's not important. By the way, the lion's share of Reserve fund, Fund of the Future Generations and reserves of Bank of Russia are placed in the USA, so there is no opportunity to run riot. Tail wags dog.
The most wonderful - absence of consequences for the West, in fact you will not declare that Georgia executed somebody's will. The sovereign power made a mistake having paid off with loss of territories. However having recognized independence of two republics, the Russian Federation will shake positions inside the country, implicitly having recognized the right on self-determination of its republics - on Caucasus and in Volga region. Now it seems inconceivable but the quantity of events generates qualitative shift. For example, recently the house of the president of Ingushetia Zyazikov was fired from grenade cup, the next day - the Balkan script, part 2. Long-term strategy of the future shocks.
In this case five-day war exposes the American approach in historical prospect. For the USA all world - is a battlefield. After the World War II they planned the ruin of the USSR and they achieved it in the period of Perestroyka. At 90-s they carried out "democratization" of Russia, having attracted our interest to the goods thus having hostilely set us up against independent neighbours. We are in not brotherly ring and now reap the fruits of own short-sightedness. Russia had no chances to act differently on Caucasus. We are being overplayed, being outstripped on a step and though plans of the States are well read, we are rearward. Nevertheless the Joint Staff was ready to counteract aggression, otherwise the army would not make successful blitzkrieg from Poti up to Gori. Olympiad in Sochi is not far off (peace in Abkhazia by the way) and Medeved's rating demands growth (as well as Putin's one in connection with the Chechen Republic).
Saakashvili was made an offer which he accepted - either you would risk and would be mentioned in history, or would renounce but the imperous patron would crush you. Ambitions of the collector of the grounds and fighter of separatism against destiny of the political emigrant. Willy-nilly you will eat up your tie and your face will grow thin. Olympiad was used as covering: while the planet pleased itself with sports, kick-up in mountains near the sea would not remain unnoticed, if the Russians would make noise, we should say it's because of powerlessness. Another thing is paradoxical - Christian power without any threat from outside and under the guarantor of NATO boot rushed to kill.
In September Dick Cheney and Vladimir Putin directed their steps on the gas south. Our prime-minister went to Uzbekistan, vice-president of the USA - to Azerbaijan. For the time southerners irritate the Americans not daring to refuse from intermediary of Russia. The Ukrainian economy is on recession, the Central Asian gas rises in price and our Slavic neigbour tosses between two fires. There came a respite but there appeared dilemma - to protect own interests in Crimea, East Ukraine and Baltic, or to be late moving along fire. Political will is required and support of fellow citizens, the things which are not present. Only ambiguity, inconsistency and bloated merits.
For half a century we it's the third time risked, in the fourth - disintegration of the country would begin. At least, refusal of federalism, revision of the rights of opposition, transition to producing economy, restriction of migration from the south is necessary, otherwise the native land will bristle with Russian-speaking sale - manager. It doesn't care of subtleties of political intrigues - he serves to the one who pays, this is the short way to the next "revolution of white birches". Inhabitants will open their mouths, rich men will rush to their country houses at Mediterranean sea, the Central Asian handy-man and Caucasian owner will not start crying over stumbled Russia.
There are no sensible forecasts from the Kremlin analysts, opposite thing takes place - hurray speeches from all media - resources. Меdvedev reflects on reequipment and negotiates busily with Sarkozi, Putin studies the Amur tigers, Patriarch consecrates the American gift of bells, the Russians are being financed to buy cars and apartments and migratory service stamps passports of new citizens. Days of cities remind the Roman triumphes and mass-media follow hurricanes and failures near La Manche. War has been finished - study, earn, have fun! The Russian earth is rich with valiant people, whether it's not a variant? The main thing is not to forget a simple rule of every opposition - if you do not allow yourself, you will allow it to others...
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