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Scales of a Financial Catastrophe of 2008 Are Clarified

Scales of a Financial Catastrophe of 2008 Are Clarified
Deljagin Michael 14.01.2009
By the way, this catastrophe proceeds.

Bank of Russia has just presented the current data - and has given qualitatively and emotionally clear and strict quantitative expression.
Net capital outflow of the private capital in IV quarter of 2008 made up 130,5 billion dollars and exceeded all saved up net inflow of the private capital for the period from the beginning of 2006 - since the moment when net inflow became rather steady (for 2006 it made up 41,8 billion, for 2007 - 83,1 billion, for first three quarters of 2008 - 0,6 billion dollars).

For the period from August till December, 2008 net outflow of the private capital made, according to Bank of Russia, 165,3 billion dollars. By official estimation, net outflow of the private capital will be reduced more than on 30 % - from 129,9 billion dollars in 2008 up to 90 billion dollars in 2009. Essential deterioration took place in IV quarter of 2008 in foreign trade. Export was reduced in comparison with similar period of the last year on 13,4 % (from 110,0 up to 95,3 billion dollars), import grew on 5,2 % (from 69,6 up to 73,2 billion dollars). In result positive balance of foreign trade decreased in 1,8 times (from 40,4 up to 22,1 billion dollars), while positive account of current operations of the balance of payment fell almost three times, more than in 2,8 times - from 23,9 up to 8,4 billion dollars.

By official estimations, in 2009 positive balance of foreign trade will be compressed almost in 10 times - from 176,6 up to 18,1 billion dollars: export will fall on 35.4 % in comparison with 2008 and on 14,5 % in comparison with 2007 - up to 303,1 billion dollars, import at a rate of 285 billion dollars will decrease in comparison with 2008 on 2.6 % but will be higher than a level of 2007 more than on a quarter - on 27,5 %. Account of the current operations earlier on results of 2008 being positive and making up 98,9 billion dollars will become negative and will make up 45 billion dollars.

International reserves of Bank of Russia after achievement of its maximum level on August, 8, 2008 (598,1 billion dollars) were reduced by the end of 2008, that is less than for five months, up to 438,2 billion dollars. - on 159,9 billion dollars or on 26,7 %. On a background of rather appreciable depreciation of rouble accompanying with corresponding official applications it makes frightening impression of loss of control over the currency market by the state. In fact international reserves of national bank (to be more exact - dynamic of their changes) are not simply a symbol of solvency of the state and degree of its control over the currency market but are also the key tool of maintenance of such control.

At preservation of tendencies developed international reserves of Bank of Russia can appear lower than a minimum level in 250 billion dollars already in the second half of 2009 providing reliable and guaranteed operative control over the currency market that will create real risk of not smooth but spasmodic and consequently destructive devaluation.
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