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One More Fine Speculation

One More Fine Speculation
17.02.2009

Announcement of Bank of Russia about intention to expand essentially crediting of subjects of economy on security of funds naturally led to the growth of quotations of the share market. Of course: if earlier, buying funds, operators of the market bought falling in price (both directly and by virtue of devaluation of rouble) garbage, - now they can put up these funds in Bank of Russia and receive "alive money" for them.   

 

Actually, to buy the Russian dunds is possible without money: if Bank of Russia all the same will take them on security, it is possible to take short-term credit to buy shares and to receive money of Bank of Russia under them. In conditions of sharp shortage of liquidity it is very important and subjects of economy already use it. At the end of February Bank of Russia following its promises will expand crediting on security even more - and, accordingly, will give one more pulse to the growth of demand for the Russian funds which has already caused growth of their cost and, accordingly, increase in quotations of the share market.   

 

In conditions of declared by Bank of Russia but inevitably temporal currency stability (which will last till the beginning of new scale payments on external debts, that is till April or even up to the second half of March) participants of the market received fine "window of opportunities". In fact: for minimum one and a half month quotation of shares will grow, most likely, at stability of rouble that will allow to receive rather appreciable incomes.   

 

The most important thing - "to come off" of this market in time, before the beginning of a new coil of devaluation of rouble. The reason of its inevitability is simple: the state does not provide due control over the means directed by it on the support of economy - and these means as well as in 1992-1994 and 1998 get on the currency market. At that to blame it for weakness of the control is impossible: if to enter normal, effective control, it would become not clear what operations banks and enterprises will use to pay "kick-back" to insatiable officials.   

 

Meanwhile reduction of the international reserves (only for January - more than on 40 billion dollars) promptly washes away opportunities of the state on maintenance of rouble. So, in 2009 141 billion dollars will go on payment of the external debt of corporations, at that in conditions of weakness of the currency control they will pay off with creditors with stocks of currency not saved up but with means bought from the state. Negative balance of current operations of balance of payments (including export incomes) will make, under official forecasts, 45 billion dollars.

 

Buying up of cash currency by the population will make not less than 40 billion dollars. Financial support of the budget suffering disaster (international reserves, as against gold and foreign currency reserves include also means both of Bank of Russia and government), by estimation, will demand in 2009 not less than 60 billion dollars. One shouldn't forget that Fund of National Well-Being "has been unpacked" in January, being reduced on 3,5 billion dollars.   

 

At last, even double decrease in intensity of currency gamble with the state help to economy will lead to reduction of international reserves not less than on 55 billion dollars.   

 

In view of all factors described international reserves of Russia will be reduced for 2009 almost fivefold - from 427,1 up to hardly more than 86 billion dollars, that is completely not enough for maintenance of stability of rouble which easily becomes victim of every passing by global speculator (SOROS - is only the most public but far not the most dangerous of them).   

 

It's clear that this estimation is conventional: devaluation of rouble will improve condition of our foreign trade a little, economy of Russia also possesses significant "safety factor" which is not quite possible to define quantitatively. However situation does not change essentially due to it: corruption character of a political system does not allow to the state to create really effective control over own means directed to economy that provides their infiltration into the currency market and dooms international reserves of Russia to compression and us - to devaluation.   

 

In these conditions one-and-a-half-month opportunity to earn, kindly created by Bank of Russia (we shall hope not only for the ones approached to its management), makes impression of extremely expensive present.

 

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