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|20 jan 2017|
Putin's Mode Became Lossmaking
Delyagin Michael 25.03.2009
So-called "cumulative financial result" of the Russian enterprises representing balance of profits and losses on all enterprises but for small business, banks, insurance companies and budgetary organizations became one of the most evident displays of full breakdown of "stability" widely advertised in 2000th years.
Imperfection of this parameter is clear: on the one hand, it does not have universal character, on the other hand - the Russian businessmen, as a rule (especially in conditions of crisis when attraction of external capitals became impossible), mark down the profit being guided by a principle of 90th years "high profit is not good business but bad bookkeeper".
However the scales of change of its dynamics much more exceed all possible errors.
Cumulative financial result of the Russian enterprises in I quarter of 2008 grew in comparison with the same period of the last year on 17.2%, while in II quarter (basically because of rise of prices for oil) - on 61,3%. However in the III quarter because of the beginning of crisis cumulative financial result appeared on 2,5% lower, than the one of the last year. In October, 2008 cumulative financial result made only 63,4 billion roubles. In comparison with 532,1 billion roubles in October, 2007, that is it fell in 8,4 times. In November situation hardly improved - cumulative financial result grew up to 73,3 billion roubles, having reduced backlog from last year's up to 6,9 times, however in December the situation broke qualitatively: cumulative loss of the Russian enterprises exceeded their cumulative profit already on 581,3 billion roubles - at that in December, 2007 cumulative financial result was not simply positive but made 1.169,5 billion roubles!
In result in IV quarter 2008 the Russian economy worked "at a loss": excess of losses over profits made 442,2 billion roubles, while annual financial result of 2008 (4,0 trillion roubles) appeared lower than of last year on 30,4% - and in view of the general rise in prices in economy decrease made about 40%!
The basic part of "net loss" - 374,8 billion roubles. On results of IV quarter - it's concentrated in trade and repair of technical equipment; cumulative loss of manufacturing industry made 115,8 billion roubles, extractions of fuel - power minerals - 69,6 billion roubles, railway transportation - 20,2 billion roubles and, at last, fisheries and fish culture - 1,3 billion roubles.
Thus some branches - apparently, abusing monopoly position - essentially improved financial position during this disastrous time. So, manufacture and distribution of electric power, gas and water which finished II quarter with cumulative loss of 3.4 and III quarter - already of 41,9 billion roubles, in IV quarter completely returned missed and provided excess of profits over losses at a rate of 68,2 billion roubles (only on 4,0% less than the level of IV quarter, 2007).
Department of exploitation of housing facilities received in IV quarter relatively small cumulative financial result - only +0,3 billion roubles. However it appeared in 9,0 times higher, than the level of similar period of the last year that is difficult to treat differently as a result of conscious abusing of reformers in housing-and-municipal sphere.
It is typical, that if for 2008 cumulative profit decreased (in nominal expression, that is without taking into account rise in prices) only on 10.2%, cumulative loss jumped up in 4,7 times. Thus it appeared quite rigidly located in the limited circle of legal persons failing deeper and deeper, as the share of unprofitable enterprises grew in 2008 insignificantly - only up to 25,2% in comparison with 23,4%.
Nevertheless, in 2008 Russia began to work at a loss, even in view of the error of cumulative financial result as statistics. Really: financial position of insurance business as a whole is pitiable, the state had to rescue bank system and it till now directly depends on its support, position of small business at least has not improved and budgetary organizations basically do not generate profit. Propensity to concealment of the profit from taxation, certainly, increased as a result of crisis but nevertheless not to such an extend that for only one IV quarter to hide additionally more than 400 billion roubles; besides tax bodies show keen interest to unprofitable enterprises (probably, it is one of the reasons of insignificant growth of their number: corporations prefer "to hang losses" of all activity on one enterprise simply for restriction of tax problems.
Transformation of Russia into unprofitable country marks not simply full breakdown of strained propaganda assurances about "strong stability", "modernization and competitiveness", "raising from knees" and so on.
Transformation of Russia into unprofitable country marks crash of the whole social and economic model carefully built in 2000th years, transformation makes crash of the political mode which created that obviously impractical model not simply inevitable but close enough.
At that new propaganda mantra that reduction of incomes will lead to improvement of economy and policy costs no more, than the previous one according to which "oil will always be the road, therefore we will always have money, as many as we need, therefore we'll always do everything we want".
We remember perfectly well, including from 90-th years which gave birth to the basic part of ruling and owning our country kleptocracy, that growth of losses neither reduce the general level of larceny but, on the contrary, after some time starts to whip up it. Some, as once secular directors, steal "from despair", others as "effective managers" - in sober understanding that soon there will be nothing to steal.
Besides one shouldn't forget that corruption, as far as it is possible to judge, is an original basis of the political system carefully created in our country in 2000th years and no economic losses would allow own elements to break that political system.
It will crash down by itself, under the weight of own monstrous inefficiency - and the task of the contentious part of our society is not to give Russia to be lost under its fragments and then, having improved the state, to begin complex modernization of economy and society.
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