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«Great Depression-2» Gathers Strength

«Great Depression-2» Gathers Strength
Каlashnikov Маxim 27.04.2009



Attention of all the world is compelled to the American economy. It is no wonder: markets and economies of the whole world now depend on its condition. On the second year of Great Depression - 1 in 1930, unemployment in the United States reached 8,7% of able-bodied population. In America of 2009 (if to count not only "totally" unemployed but also the ones who are partially occupied not from good life - sundowners) - unemployment captured 13,5%. One of these days economist John Williams and his colleague Pol Krejg Roberts - former assistant to Minister of Finance of the USA and ex-editor of department in The Wall Street Journal - made sensational application. They prove: if to apply today techniques which were used to calculated a rate of unemployment expected in days of last Depression, today we would receive 17,5%.


However, official indexes of unemployment do not please. At the end of March the American Bureau of Labour Statistics published the report where it specified the most unsuccessful states where the rate of unemployment exceeded 10% as of February, 2009. These are - Michigan (12,5%), Rhode Island (11,4%), South Carolina (10,9%), Oregon (10,9%), California (10,6%), Northern Carolina (10,3%), Nevada (10,2%). States where the level exceeded 9% are even more numerous. However Williams and Roberts consider: all these figures are counted using so-called technique U-3, where sundowners and the ones who are searching for the job not being registered are not taken into account. If to use more detailed technique (U-6) resulted figures can be even doubled. Official figures - 8,5% of the unemployed at rates of growth of unemployment when 650 thousand people monthly stay without job.
It is possible to agree or not with the American intellectuals, however, indirect data speak that unemployment in the United States dangerously grows. One of such indicators - volumes of trade in retail networks. In March in relation to February, 2009 they fell in general on 1,8%. It is very sensitive for the USA where trade - important part of gross national product.


Car industry of the USA also goes to the bottom. There are less and less buyers. Though president Obama threatens to block sources of the governmental loans for car industry, if the last will not start producing more "harmless - green" and economic cars, the majority of experts consider this point rather skeptically. They say, one can't forget about bad American design and influence of price factor on fuel. The most terrible for ordinary American is being suggested: they talk about lowering of labour cost approaching incomes of the American worker to the salary of the Chinese one. Certainly, they talk also that for the sake of rescue of General Motors, Chrysler and Ford their creditors should write off the part of their debts.

Obama, as if last Soviet secretary general, prophesies: "This re-structuring, no matter how painful it was in short-term prospect, will mark new beginning for the great American industry... which will create new workplaces, will generate new prosperity and will begin production of economic cars and lorries which will lead us to future power independence ".

But - irony of fate - prices for fuel should not fall but grow for this purpose. For energy effective and non-polluting cars which are produced in America cost more expensively, than simple ones. While consumers do not have stimulus to buy "economic cars". On the other hand, design of car industry of the USA concedes to production of the Asian and European competitors.

Obama's critics say: just see - magnificent brands (Mercedes-Benz and BMW) have already grasped 4% of the American market in March, having sold more than 33 thousand motor vehicles. That is - it is twice more, than it the number of non-polluting, hybrid cars sold. Well, even when prices for fuel were high, Americans all the same preferred to buy not domestic economic cars but hybrid Toyota Prius. So, all these environmentally safe hybrids in no way will rescue Detroit.

The reason of crash of the American car industry is that it persistently produced huge cars devouring a lot of gasoline. While Europeans got used to super expensive fuel (in EU litre of gasoline contains 70% of taxes) have outstripped Detroit in manufacture of economic cars of modern design. Former analyst of General Motors Walter Mc Manus, economist of Michigan University speak about it. At that the problem has been accruing at least from the beginning of 1970. Now, if Obama's administration will manage to shove the law on toughening of norms of emission of hotbed gases in car exhaust, all the same the process of transition of motor-vehicle pool of the USA on economic models will take years. It may not be true that then Europeans and Japanese will not win again the market of America.

In any case, economy of the USA awaits further falling - with growth of unemployment.

Soviet Russians could say something about it. They could offer the market clean car which would cost cheaper, than petrol one. For example, cars with handwheel motor - batteries of Nurbej Gulia. Petrol consumption is tenfold in comparison with petrol cars. There are also other projects of the Russian car industry: without heavy transmission, with use of electric motors - wheels of Shkondin.
Though it would be possible, if today we have Supernew Russia led by some Maxim Kalashnikov. Belovezhskaya Russian Federation headed by Pu or Me is powerless here. It's not capable to use historical chance.
Great Depression - 2 continues to gather destructive strength...



All this occurs on a background of proceeding "dollar flooding". Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA stupidly emits new and new money. Scales of pumping (using different channels) of private banks are already estimated in 12,8 bln. Chief of FRS Ben Bernanke aggravates position putting forward new 2-trillion program of crediting of financial institutions which will redeem "poisonous actives". Many are seriously afraid of failure of the USA into hyperinflation. Observers speak about first attributes: rise in price of oil in dollars. Other disturbing theme - disappearance of pension accumulation of middle class.

On the other hand, from the beginning of new century the number of credits given by banks uncontrollably grew: from 1,75 billion in 2000 up to 4,4 billion in 2007. Thus deficiency of the current account of the USA, grown with the speed 100 billion annually in the 90s, reached magnificent figure of growth of 788 billion in 2006. Now it turns out that FRS inflates new financial bubble. The sum of "poisonous" actives, by some estimations, reaches 30 bln. dollars, twice surpassing annual gross national product of America. Economist Henry Liu speaks about it in his work ("Obama's Politics of Change and US Policy on China", "Asia Times", Henry Liu). Hopeless debts within the framework of a policy of "new monetarism" are being transferred into new papers - derivatives. Sooner or later all this artificial construction crash down.

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