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Government Admits Sharp Nosedive of the Russian Economy

Government Admits Sharp Nosedive of the Russian Economy
30.05.2009

Falling of gross national product of Russia in April in relation to similar period of last year made 10,5%.  Ministry of Finance, in its turn, informed that deficiency of the federal budget in 2009 can make not 7,4% as it's planned earlier but 9% of gross national product.

As major factor of decrease in economy they consider in the government falling of investments which in April made 16,2% in relation to April, 2008 and for January - April - 15,8%. In retail trade last month falling in annual aspect accelerated to 5,3%.

Besides deep recession in industry was marked in April - 16,9% in comparison with similar indicator of 2008. Building branch also underwent essential reduction in April - 16,3%.

According to the working forecast of Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the Russian gross national product this year will decrease on 6-8%.

In his Budgetary message Medvedev informed that budgeted deficit would make not less than 7% of gross national product. At the same time, mass-media result the statement of the deputy minister of finance Oksana Sergienko according to whom budgetary deficiency can make in 2009 even 9% of gross national product. Former forecast made 7,4% of gross national product without taking into account expenses of Fund of National Well-Being.

What does it mean? Basically that crisis develops under its scenario while the government follows its own and "together they won't meet". In the beginning of the year the same people confidently broadcasted that II quarter became critical: state expenses would start growing, the situation with crediting would improve, the prices for energy carriers would stop their falling, that crisis in general is just about to end and starting from summer everything would start growing, Abramovich would buy new yacht, Deripaska - new factory somewhere in the States and Prokhorov would buy up all Courchevel and establish there the Russian three-color.

After all there were people who said that everything would be as it's now. Not far to seek - it's enough to look through archive of Forum.msk for the end of last year and the beginning of the current. But for some reason former "machinists", interim government headed by ex-president Putin continue to operate the Russian economy flying to a precipice.

More than that we are continued to be assured that the country trusts these people more than to common sense, more than to own eyes, than to the condition of pursed and even more than to abdominal murmur. Becoming poor and half-starved people still shout "Hurray to Putin's Plan!" Though it's clear even to the most stupid voter that Putin never had any plan and everything's going on as it is - by itself.

All these important figures, beautiful words made up from two English one - it is great. But economy, by and large, has relation to normal, simple person constantly, even if he does not know these words at all and he does not nedde them.

So recently I became sick out of a sudden and decided to go on excursion to our district polyclinic - as Yeltsin used to. I even didn't need to go by tram as polyclinic is on the other side of the road. This polyclinic is a living library!

In a Soviet period we liked to complain of polyclinics - queues, confusion, bad cure. Well, modern district polyclinic in Moscow differs from the Soviet one the same way in the Soviet period regional polyclinic differed from polyclinic of 4th department. People "enroll" as they before to get deficient goods.

I asked my local therapist, why it's so? And it appears the doctor-specialist (Au! Medvedev's national project!) receives 10-12 thousand roubles in Moscow! Naturally, a half of specialists is simply absent, they cannot find people for such a salary. The ones who work... well, they work for those 10 thousand.

In the registry you can find grannies who hear almost nothing, they sit there and try to read what you are talking - the salary of the registrar is 3,5 thousand, that is in 2 times lower, than the living wage, less than promised unemployment compensation for 4,9 thousand. Well, the salary of the nurse is somewhere in-between. It is clear, why if someone go there to work, he does it only for the sake of addition to pension?

The most important thing is that - they, as state employees, that is people dependent regularly, following command (obviously on account of working hours - Au! Queues!) go on meetings and other mass meetings of "Edinaya Russia", "blue" trade unions and so forth. It is clear, whence does authority take mass support and it's clear what the quality if this support is?

Well, if it's clear now how long "firm" rouble will hold out after the announcement of falling of gross national product and other joyful indicators of "big" economy? Well, now rouble payments already come to the end, further summer follows... I'm thinking, whether rouble will fail in July or earlier? But it is unimportant when - for the basic mass support of "party in power" - half-poor state employees - it will be already full accident, after all it is not clear how they make ends meet at the present rate.

No, they won't go on barricade but they also will not work and "will park" on the support of authorities... Whether "superfluous" budgetary establishments will be closed? It's quite interesting question. Ambulance station and "superfluous" schools have been already closed in province. What about cities? Where will oculists and tolaryngologists, nurses for medical procedures and X-ray technicians will go? They can't do anything else, they are "superfluous people"...

Oh, ye, the state has reserve... But there also basis to believe that it's fictive in general, it's not in the "hard cash" - and "hard cash" have been already spent on the support of bank system as the president and prime-minister confess now they were spent inefficient...

We live in interesting time. Unfortunately.

Аnatoly Baranov

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