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RF Lost Nuclear Parity and Faces Defeat in Nuclear War

RF Lost Nuclear Parity and Faces Defeat in Nuclear War
07.04.2013

There are 1,48 thousand developed warheads in service of Russia, while the USA has 1,654 thousand warheads. These data is given in the reference data of U.S. State Department about course of implementation of the Russian-American contract START-3.

According to the data published by U.S. State Department as of March, 1, 2013 the Americans had 792 units of the developed intercontinental ballistic missiles, rockets on submarines and heavy bombers.

The number of similar arms in Russia made 492 units.

Besides, exchange of data about number of strategic offensive arms according to provisions of the new contract START between two states allowed to report that there are in the USA 1654 nuclear warheads on deployed ICBM, SLBM and heavy bombers.

There are 1480 nuclear warheads on the same carriers in Russia.

All in all the United States owns 1028 deployed and non-deployed launchers MBR, BRPL and heavy bombers.

In Russia their quantity makes 900.

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From editorial board: It is easy to see that Russia lags behind the USA not only in a number of warheads, but also in number of carriers of nuclear charges (more than by 10 percent) - 792 against 492, that is in one and a half times. Thus relative parity is reached only at the expense of multiple warheads, mainly RVSN.

The forecast for the Russian Federation here is unfavourable – “Voevoda” with dispensing warheads is probable candidate to leave, while production of single warhead missiles to replace them obviously isn't in time as 1 piece of “Voevoda” should be replaced by several rockets Topol-M1 to compensate loss. Owing to this disproportion decision to restore production of heavy missile "Voivoda-2" was made, though it is a question of quite remote prospect. While the question of imbalance of forces already today became a problem.

The question of Sea component of strategic nuclear forces is even more sharp - nuclear submarines of old types are as a whole on the verge of withdrawal because of age, series of boats "Borei" which should change them are produced without ICBM "Bulava" which haven't passed state tests. The American Naval Strategic Nuclear Forces are completed with completely new nuclear submarines, each of it bears more rockets, than nuclear submarine "Borei" type.

Aviation component of the strategic forces of the Russian Federation was initially weaker, than of the USA, in recent years it only got degraded even more.

It is necessary to add also that nuclear forces of Great Britain and France are incorporated into NATO and can be applied against the Russian Federation at the same time with the American ones, though they are not considered in balance between the USA and the Russian Federation. Russia has no allied nuclear powers.

Ballistic missile defense of the USA to which Russia has no counterbalance as well as missile early-warning system not restored in full volume should also be included into passive of the Russian Federation.

There are also bases to believe that nuclear industry of the Russian Federation has difficulties with potential of additional charge of warheads as a number of capacities of the nuclear branch - first of all extracting - were lost with disintegration of the USSR, production and processing of these capacities aren’t conducted. Stocks of weapon uranium and plutonium were transferred to the USA according to the transaction Gor-Chernomyrdin.

It is possible to note that parity between the USA and the Russian Federation doesn't exist any more, in the short term difference of potentials will gain multiple character.

With further development of systems of detection and interception of rockets in the USA potential of nuclear control of the Russian Federation can become inefficient. It is a prospect for the time after 2020, when technique of the next generation will be on arms of the American strategic nuclear forces, while we will lag behind not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively. Already today the USA in case it will decide to deliver preventive nuclear attack on the Russian objects of strategic nuclear system can make it so that there will be no blow of punishment, only separate start-ups of rockets. As soon as missile defense of the USA will be able to intercept these single start-ups for sure, threat of nuclear war becomes more than real.

Anatoly Baranov

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