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|26 mar 2017|
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation Returned the 2nd Place but Didn't Return Former Weight
Aleksey Proskurin 17.03.2007
Preliminary results of Sunday elections in the regions the Russia which comprised the third part of voters of the country, gave answers to some important questions which the country had set to itself, at least those from its inhabitants who were interested in politics.
The first question. To what extend the resource of trust rendered by people to authority is great nowadays?
Judging from the fact that "Edinaya Russia" has got approximately 46 percent of voices from those who have come to the elections and the figure's really estimated approximately in 40 percent, the authority nowadays is being supported by approximately 18-19 percent of voters.
The second question. Whether "Kremlin two-party system" will take place in Russia?
The party chosen as the main oppositional one - "Fair Russia" got only about 12-13 percent of voices of voters who came to the elections and could not leave behind the Communist Party of the Russian Federation though in some regions it occupied a steady 2 place. The parties which made up "FR" - "Rodina", "Life" and "Pensioners" on elections of the 10th of October, 2006 got separately 10, 13 and 6 percent of voices, that totally (29 percent) was appreciable more than present 13 percent of "Fair Russia". In other words, it seems that the project "Fair Russia" is nearly failed. And of course, by all means, the Kremlin failed using the first attempt to impose the country two-party system according to the American or German sample.
It is necessary to note that appearance of the project "Fair Russia" is an evidence of increase of internal contradictions inside the party in power. In the threshold of large political events of 2007-2008 latent struggle between "Moscow" and "Petersburg" parts becomes aggravated inside "Edinaya Russia".
Putin understands that in the whole "Edinaya Russia" is - a party more belonging to Luzhkov than to him. Besides it's not a secret that already since times of the government of Primakov-Masljukov between the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and "luzhkov's grouping" exist if not allied, at least, not hostile attitudes. Therefore the configuration of the future parliament in which "Edinaya Russia" free from Putin will be the main party and oppositional - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation would hardly suit the present president. Obviously, therefore he initiated the project "Fair Russia" and implicitly supported Mironov's party. For this very reason the chapter of "Fair Russia" behaved so aggressively and freely in relation to "Edinaya Russia" before March, 11th. However "the Kremlin strategists" were misinformed, apparently, by iridescent figures received by parties later joined "Fair Russia". It looks like, they seriously considered that "FR" could collect about 25-20 percent and deprive "Edru" of monopoly for authority. Well, meanwhile this catchy plan failed. The Kremlin beat itself.
The third question. Whether the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will manage to break the tendency of reduction of its supporters which has been observed since 1998?
For example, on elections to Duma of 2003 the Communist Party of the Russian Federation got about 12,4 percent of voices while on intermediate regional elections of the 8th of October, 2006 even less - about 11,5 percent thus shared the 2nd-3rd places with the block of parties which subsequently were united into "Fair Russia".
Therefore results of the elections of March, 11th should be recognized as successful to the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, this time it has more than 15,7 percent having thus occupied the 2nd place in the political hierarchy.
From editorial staff: Let's agree with the fact that the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has returned to itself a place in hierarchy but today another question is also actual - whether the Communist Party should be built in into the present hierarchy so densely, that already its destiny is directly connected with destiny of system which it fights.
Besides, one can have an impression that on regional elections on March, 11th the Communist Party of the Russian Federation returned itself the position lost on elections to Duma of 2003. However, it is just a matter of , by estimation of A.Proskurin, 15,7 % of voices on elections with decreased level of attendance. That is we are not referring to 22-24% expected in December, 2003.
It is possible to compare results of elections in 2003 (elections into the State Duma) and in 2007 (elections in Legislative Assembly) for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in thousand voices and not to be engaged any more in gambling on a theme who will win - a whale or the elephant.
Result: in 7 regions - fall, in 7 regions - growth. In the whole - fall. If not to consider in calculation Dagestan where large falsifications and even cancellation of elections are possible (though it is improbable), we have very weak growth - of 44 thousand voices in 13 regions taken together (from 1 383 236 voices up to 1 427 693):
Результат: по 7 регионам - падение, по 7 регионам - рост. В целом - падение. Если не учитывать в подсчете Дагестан, где возможны крупные фальсификации и даже отмена выборов (хотя маловероятно), то имеем очень слабый рост - на 44 тысячи голосов по 13 регионам вместе взятым (с 1 383 236 голосов до 1 427 693):
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