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The Third Putin’s Period: Attempt of Making Forecast
Kalashnikov Maksim 27.11.2007
Apparently, the Russian Federation is entering a strip of very difficult years. It is a question of whether the Russian Federation will break up or it will be possible to keep it. Management of Putin followers (the second edition of the same creatures that ruined the USSR and were marauding in the 90th) will lead the RF to crash.
The question is: whether we can intercept authority when everything will be tumbled down to hell?
"Fat" years came to the end. We enter a turn of "lean" and bitter years.
Putin managed to combine in him features of Kerensky, Brezhnev and Gorbachev. Instead of doing business - only chattering, the work of "PR-fool maker". Real illnesses were not cured but exhausted deep into plentifully varnished. But they inevitably will be exposed. We are awaited by the epoch of "new 1980th" when the reality will ruthlessly show accounts for payment. It would become necessary to pay for years of chatter, inactivity and "sawing". For the lost opportunities.
Already by 2004 Putin and his clique fuc...up industry and science. Already then it was a question not of their revival but of their creation anew. But - you know what Putin followers were engaged with all those years.
Putin's Russian Federation at Full Speed Rushes to a Concrete Wall
"Putin's Plan"? Bosh and bluff. Only citations picked up from his eight annual messages. And where's specifics? Where clear boundaries for achievement? There is no trace of a plan. It all the same as we would be engaged with picking up of citations from Brezhnev's long speeches for many years. Shit, even at Brezhnev there were concrete plans: with figures and desirable parameters. While at Putin - something foggy.
He tries to copy Hitler. But he is as far from Hitler - as up to the Moon. Qualities are non-comparable: neither will, nor mind. Can you imagine Germany where the central government steal 10-30% of means directed to the regions and the rest is being "striked" by Gauleiters on places?
Everything degenerates into farce and buffoonery. And the most important - is no ideology, designated Great aim. And if they are not present - everything will degenerate in banal striking, intestine war inside of a state machinery and degradation.
The main threat to existence of the Russian Federation and to its development is - all-consuming corruption. Both in the state and in the state companies-corporations. While it exists, all grandiose Putin's programs do not cost a penny. But where is real struggle against corruption instead of separate propaganda actions?
What do we have? The state as the community of aggressively incompetent jacks thievish to the utmost having arranged themselves around of a "pipe". And no attribute of improvement of situation is seen. I am afraid that there comes the end of a comedy under a three-coloured flag and a two-headed eagle. Destroyers of the USSR have completely gone bankrupt. If only the Russian Federation could be kept. It is disturbing: nevertheless it is - the greatest part of my Native land.
Let's write out in a column those troubles and calls that are waiting for us in 2008-2012 and the next years.
1. Crisis of liquidity of bank system.
2. Food crisis (because of import dependence).
3. Default on credit debts of the large companies, pregnant with disappearance of Stabilization Fund and Gold and Forex Reserve.
4. Bursting of a bubble of prices for the real estate (it is interfaced with bank).
5. An administrative default. Wreck because of inability of "Putin followers" to manage the country.
The state machinery uncontrollably grown, stupid and thievish will simply goof management of the country. General corruption in it will paralyse any attempts of effective development, will squeeze out from the Russian Federation all clever and vigorous. Huge sums of money sent on the state programs will be plundered on 20-30 % minimum (1-2 billion dollars). Corruption at Putin has exceeded even Yeltsin's one and there is no attributes of real struggle with it. There are no attributes of change of old, gone bankrupt "elite". Putin - is not Stalin, he can prepare a group of new managers - creators to substitute by them old clique of thieves.
6. Split and intestine wars inside of a ruling clique (it is observed already now). Creatures who are able only to divide and saw will have a fierce fight. Everything is divided in the country. New repartition of profitable pieces will begin. All this is predetermined: in fact the authority does not have clear aim. To which it is necessary to lead the country. They manage only for the sake of authority and robbery.
7. New war on Northern Caucasus. Terror against the Russian population.
8. Personnel crisis: the sharpest shortage of qualified employees in all spheres. Soviet storage has been already exhausted and the RF produces exclusively outsiders who are incapable even to copy what has been done by the specialists in the 1980-th.
9. Shortage of hands, demographic crisis.
10. Shock from establishment of the European prices for gas (year 2011). Opportunities for realization of the state program on energy saving are missed in "zero" years.
11. Shock from shortage of natural gas with leaving of the Turkmen "blue fuel" filled "RF" deficiency to China and (probably) in the European Union on transcaspian a gas main around of the Russian Federation.
12. Crisis because all incomes of oil and gas will go on development of new deposits of hydrocarbons instead of settled ones. At the same time "Gazprom" will demand huge capital investments.
13. Crisis from rise of tariffs for electric power in 2014 - because of shortage of gas and release of tariffs.
14. Possible crisis from unreasoned, not counted and unprepared introduction of the Russian Federation into WTO. 15. Crisis of interethnic break inside of the Russian Federation because of inflow of the migrants favourable to business, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and officials.
16. Shock from crash of the worn out systems of housing and communal services, dwelling stock.
17. Possible shock from deterioration of a railway transportation.
18. Possible crisis from deterioration of energy power system.
19. Shock from mass leaving out of operation park of old civil aircraft.
Whether the present authority will cope with all these calls? From my point of view - no. They don't have either will, or mind, or boldness. It cannot clean sate machinery from corrupted people: for it itself is decaying. And it means one: since 2008 the Russian Federation will enter a strip of accidents and shocks. What occurs today is - only the first impulses of a storm. Putin didn't manage to stay up to the end of the second term, situation in the Russian Federation began to worsen.
It means that putinship in the long term will lose control over situation. Authority will slip out of hands of lime "national leaders". And here we should be prepared to intercept it. I, my reader, see no other chance to rescue the country. It is necessary to prepare for "hour X" - not to lose the Russian Federation as we have lost the USSR.
Ahead, alas - great shocks...
The Author is not the supporter of Union of Right Forces and Nemtsov. For these figures (having showed themselves in the 90th) I would prepare one branch with "national leader". Nowise liberals should make the fate of the Russian Federation.
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