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|22 feb 2017|
If It’s Not Too Early to Burry Putin?
Baranov Anatoly 20.04.2013
Recently all ganged up on “our all" - both in Russia and abroad. The West actively started desacralization of image – kicking out of the Russian delegation in the Republic of South Africa, Putin's inclusion into the list of searched criminals in Finland, claim in "Republic" to his old "phony" thesis and foreign private life of daughters. As a whole mass of big facts and small facts which easily make whole campaign. Only one more thing is necessary - to include someone from "near circle" into Magnitsky's list and to declare that one more place is still vacant.
The same picture within the country – here you are poll of Levada Center according to which the majority of citizens don't want to see him the president in 2018 and enormous claims to Putin’s "justice", to pervasive police regime, to poor economic control and general corruption.
It seems that it’s high time for Putin as Yeltsin did in due time to declare the successor and to leave to supervise Olympic committee or society of philatelists.
However there is key figure – 2018 year.
By 2018 term of Putin’s being the head of the state (we shouldn’t’ believe that Putin left management of the country during Medvedev's nominal presidency) will be equal to Brezhnev's one. Legitimation of Putin's regime will happen in the most reliable way - consecration by time. 18 years are period during which the whole generation changes and proper name Putin in opinion of this generation becomes synonym of the higher authority. As patrimonial name Caesar once became the name of the highest position. Or if to return to analogy to Brezhnev, very few people now remember how his highest state position - the chairman of presidium of the Supreme Council - was called. Earlier it was called differently... While his position was called “Brezhnev" and in 2018 Putin’s position will be called... Putin.
I perfectly well remember my feelings in the early eighties of last century related to power - it seemed firm, all my conscious at that time life passed under its continuous current, the portrait of one and the same nice old man about whom a lot of jokes were told hung everywhere, but he was treated with sympathy. If then I came to vote by secret ballot (unfortunately there was no such thing) for the head of state, with high degree of probability I would vote for habitual Leonid Ilyich. Who can’t clearly pronounce words "systematically" and "socialist countries" and once called the Azerbaijani "Afghan oil industry workers".
Yes, certainly we knew about 1968 but even very progressively thinking youth believed that input of the Soviet armies in Prague was though unpleasant but necessary business and didn't consider it "mode crime". Though we didn’t like Afghanistan, as there was no distinct explanation why it was necessary to repay "international debt", if we hadn’t taken any loan, but was also perceived as a need. The more so either the States and England did the same – there was also know about participation of Grenada and Falklands. Clear thing we had no claims to level and quality of life as we were brought up quite Puritan. We simply didn’t know anything better – unless people after military service in GDR had question who was the winner - the USSR or Germany?
Now let's look at Putin with eyes of those young people who will go to ballot boxes in 2018.
Chechen wars? After all to 2018 they will become history and skyscrapers and gold "Mercedes" will be obvious confirmation of the fact that everything wasn't vain. Details - who will recollect them?
Economic disorder? Meanwhile majority of people doesn't feel it - counters burst with the goods which abundance could quite make pensioner of Brezhnev's times faint (thought prices would make them die at once but who now remembers what prices were then). Cars are not luxury any more, just means of transport. Housing is inaccessible, but population is getting reduced, so purely statistically quantity of square meters per person grows. To pleasure of younger generation low life expectancy makes grandmothers and grandfathers die leaving living space to young families.
Political stagnation? As well as at the time of Brezhnev, vast majority of citizens is far from policy, it observes it as soccer or infinite soap opera. It irritates but not so strongly. Besides for already a year Putin diligently and methodically removes opposition space – every one promising is sent to marginal field, perspective leaders are already in prison or will be there soon. Putin has just signed the decree about significant increase of a number of staff of prosecutor's office and the Ministry for Interior - the Ministry for Interior is already more numerous and now becomes much bigger. In 6 years memory of the society will be thoroughly cleaned – they already “forgot” horrors of war in Chechnya and love Kadyrov, despite all conversations about long memory of the Caucasians. The Russian people, as we know, like proverb "let bygones be bygones".
For example - Putin's promises. You remember, Putin before elections, only one and a half years ago wrote several articles with long-term plan for future presidency. Let’s check our memory: if you remember, how many articles were and what they were about? Well, if we should talk about concrete promises – nobody promises you anything.
For a start let's remember unfairly forgotten document of the early Putin period – party manifesto of “United Russia” of 2002:
"In 15 years, by 2017 Russia will be the leading world power. We will take worthy for Russia place in the world economy and policy, the whole world will with admiration observe development of the woken-up Russian bear. There will be developed transport infrastructure in Russia, available to every citizen and making every place of our immense Homeland easily reachable.
Thanks to advanced technologies in power economy and new power sources Russia will master new territories and resources increasing its riches.
Thanks to rapid growth of economy there will be more workplaces, than working hands, demand for working hands will exceed the offer, everyone will be able to get realized in the sphere which he chooses. Each Russian will have income worthy citizen of the great country.
Thanks to rapid growth of economy use of all achievements of domestic science will become possible in practice and mobilization of all intellectual potential of the country will be required. New level of development of technology will allow to ensure safety of each citizen and the state as a whole. In free country everyone will be able to realize his educational, cultural and spiritual needs fully.
That is our concrete program. After victory on elections in December, 2003, at once in 2004 will start:
— program of modernization of power complex
— mass construction of individual housing
— program of development of a new transport network of Russia
— technological revolution in the Russian agriculture
— rapid growth of incomes of all categories of citizens
As a result, already
— In 2004 each inhabitant of Russia for heat and electric power will pay twice less, than now
— In 2005 each citizen of Russia will receive his share from use of the natural richness of Russia
— In 2006 everyone will have work by profession
— By 2008 each family will have own well-planned housing, worthy the third millennium, regardless of level of today's income
— By 2008 Chechnya and all North Caucasus will become tourist and resort "Mecca" of Russia
— By 2010 transport highway Sankt-Petersburg-Anadyr, Tokyo-Vladivostok-Brest and others will be constructed
— By 2017 Russia will be the leader of world politics and economy".
You shouldn't ask what points are fulfilled and what aren't – it’ enough to use opened three years ago highway St. Petersburg — Anadyr, to have a rest in the Chechen resort - all these things are available to you, as for already 8 years you get your share from oil rent... Actually Khrushchev also had a promise to build communism by 1980, nevertheless...
It is interesting why nobody asks execution of these promises from Putin and his party? Or we wait 2017, when crash of all these promises will become obvious? It would be good to remind about the again and again – so that by the time of deadline not fulfilled projects were added to a new election program.
There are also Putin's promises to last elections – these are his 7 program articles. Why almost nobody recollects about them? I remember that I was even invited to their discussion to the news agency RIA Novosti, they stopped doing it then, as just after that I in details and in a bitchy manner peculiar to me explained why nothing from what was promised could be executed and why it wouldn’t be carried out.
Now, by the way, Putin speaks about non-execution of own promises – though for some reason some other people are guilty in it, however. After all this was promised to us not by brothers Bilalov and not minister Serdyukov, but personally by V.V.Putin.
For example, "creation of 25 million new, hi-tech, well paid workplaces for people with high education level – it’s not fair words. It is urgent need, minimum level of sufficiency".
We should understand now that creation of 25 million workplaces is process in time and 6 years are allocated for it. Simple arithmetic action allows to assume that one year later 4 million such places have to be created. Where are they, Vladimir Vladimirovich?
Or here you are one more pearl: "Not only average citizen of Russia, but also our pensioners now consume more main food, than in 1990."
But we remember that 1990 was year of a heat of crisis which led finally to destruction of the USSR. Shelves of shops were empty and money had been already depreciated. Using such comparison it’s possible to say that it’s your achievement that citizens in Sankt-Petersburg ate better in 2012, than during the Leningrad blockade. It’s really so. Though if to compare it, say, with 1980, year of the Moscow Olympic Games? Here, perhaps, Brezhnev has big handicap. Certainly, in 1980 shelves of GUM looked all the same more modestly, than in "Azbuka Vkusa", but after all products there could be bought by all people, not only rich.
Putin also wrote that in 2012: "10-11% of our citizens on the level of their income still remain below poverty line". It’s interesting to know who put this line, on what signs? Generally 10-11 percent of our citizens are beggars and 80 percent are poor. If to use standard European norms. For last year situation didn’t become better, rather on the contrary - real incomes of citizens decreased.
Or here: "Balanced pension system that will lower level of transfers from the budget in the Pension Fund is necessary."
Pension reform has been really revised, but according to people will receive smaller pensions, than earlier and not all. The promise is kept, but whether we have to be happy?
Salary: "Average salary on economy will grow in real terms in 1,6-1,7 times, almost up to 40 thousand rubles in prices of 2011. Nominally it, of course, will be higher."
Everyone can check honesty of these promises comparing with own salary.
Putin wrote about courts as well: "The main issue – evidently accusatory, retaliatory bias in our judicial system. We have to solve this problem and we offer concrete steps."
Concrete steps are seen already one and a half year later is the growth of politically motivated cases and verdicts: notorious "Bolotnay’s case" as a result of which people who weren't even present on May, 6 on Bolotnaya Square stay in prison; "television case" as a result of which people stay in prison on the basis of data of propaganda movie; case of Daniel Konstantinov who more than a year stay in prison despite airtight alibi and evidences of a great number of witnesses... This huge number of politically motivated cases in the Russian province which number doesn't decrease, but, on the contrary, grows.
How is it possible after all (plus thousand more episodes) to vote for Putin and his party? It appears that it’s possible! In October last year "United Russia" in total received about 75% of votes and implemented all its candidates on local elections, party against which tens thousands people held meeting shortly before. This year on elections in Anapa a person whose name is Sergey Sergeyev received already 84% of votes!
5-6 years of such stability and the "Uzbek" results of elections will start seeming something self-evident. 18 years in power – it’s too much, it legitimizes every lawlessness, it simply becomes norm "upon".
The Russian opposition faces such challenge. If it’s ready to it? It seems that as always, no.
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