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The Americans “Buy into” the Kremlin Using European Anti-Missile System

The Americans “Buy into” the Kremlin Using European Anti-Missile System
Saidov Ruslan 07.06.2007

Recently a lot of noise is being made around the American plans of expansion of system of antimissile defense in Poland and Czechia and the Russian dissymmetric counter-moves. In some aspect it reminds me the events which took place a quarter of century ago.

Then, in the beginning of 1980th years the president of the USA Ronald Reagan proclaimed the program "Strategic Defensive Initiative" - SOYA, provided creation of strategic system of antimissile defense which, according to a plan, should counter missile-nuclear strike of the USSR against the American continent.

From the technical point of view SOYA looked exotic. The weapon of the directed energy with demanded characteristics on capacity, rate of fire and accuracy of prompting and deduction on the target which should intercept the Soviet ballistic missiles on the initial phase of their flight was impossible to create then and still impossible today or in the nearest 10-15 years.

It was primary clear. Nevertheless, the Soviet leaders "was bought into", concentrated huge resources and for counteraction of SOYA tens symmetric and dissymmetric means were created in the USSR. But everything for nothing - the USSR disintegrated in few years.

Offered by ister of Defence of the USA Robert Gates system in Czechia and Poland caused in Russia public effect, comparable with reaction of the Soviet leadership to SOYA. Such deep experts on national defense as V.V.Putin, S.B.Ivanov and A.E.Serdjukov result such convincing arguments to confirm theses about mortal danger that it's in a way inconvenient to argue with them. Still, looking from purely amateurish point of view, sometimes the following thought comes into the mind: and if they are once again "bought into" as it used to be a quarter of a century ago?

Really, what danger can be made by the European system consisting in one Radio Detention and ranging equipment and 10 antimissiles which operative expansion is expected not earlier than in 5 years?

If we look thoroughly at the globe (not to confuse with political map of the world), we shall be convinced that ballistic trajectories of the Russian rockets "Topol-M", including so-called "Super-Topol" with multiple independently targeted reentry vehicle (MIRV) and "Bulava" from basing regions in the Saratov and Ivanovo areas and sea region of military patrol in Barents Sea run far aside from Poland.

It makes a problem of interception technically not possible to realize as above laws of ballistics, unfortunately, even V.V.Putin for the present is not imperious. That means that the European anti-missile system cannot prevent Russia in any way from rocket-nuclear counter-strike on territory of the USA. But then there is a question: what for the Americans need this European anti-missile system?

Officially, to intercept starts of the Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles (IMB) on territory of the USA on an average part of a flight - Gdansk is ideally located for this purpose from geographic point of view, it is easy to check it having looked one more time on the globe. However, such authority as S.B.Ivanov believes that Iran will not have IMB as early as twenty years. It's very probable and those who prophase their appearance in the Iranian arsenals in 5-7 years, could make a severe mistake. But then destination of the European system is especially not clear. Only if they again want "to buy into" the Kremlin. So, if it is so, they are lucky meanwhile.

Meanwhile not everything in the sphere of the anti-missile system is harmless. Certainly, in the nearest 8-10 years, while there are in the Russian arsenals old Soviet missiles, no anti-missile system can cause harm. But what will be then?

In February S.B.Ivanov presented a new arms programme, it's far not the first for the postSoviet time. Former programs were never carried out earlier. Nobody knows, what will become with this one. But even if to be the most hopeless optimist and to hope that the world prices for oil will never fail, it is all the same clear that to 2015-2017 in effectives there will be only about hundred "Topol-M", including rockets with MIRV and not more than 3-4 of nuclear underwater rocket carriers of 955-th project with "Bulava" including maximum one in the mode of military patrol and all the rest - near berthing stand.

If to admit purely hypothetically that the Americans will put on the Russian grouping rocket-nuclear attack, one and a half - two thousand warheads will be enough to destroy practically all the significant stationary and ground mobile targets. Also, most likely, forces of anti-submarine defense of the USA and NATO will receive high chances to strike the Russian patrolling submarines.

After the rocket-nuclear attack of ballistic missiles of the USA the second wave, probably, will come. These are - cruise missiles of sea and air basing and tactical aircraft in the nuclear and non-nuclear equipment, capable to start both from aircraft carriers and territory of the countries - new members of NATO among which the Ukraine and Georgia by then can find themselves. It takes less than an hour to fly from Georgia and from the Ukraine to Saratov as well as from Baltic up to Ivanov.

Nevertheless, nobody all the same will give a guarantee that the first impact and the subsequent striking by cruise missiles and tactical aircraft of the USA will hit all 100 % of interesting to them targets. Something can escape and even to receive a command of fighting management to counter-strike.

Here you are the destination of the strategic anti-missile system - to intercept individual survived and started targets. But only not in the Europe, but on North American continent, on the submarines in ocean water areas surrounded the USA as well as on the submarines and planes of Norwegian and Barents Seas.

Similar script which in 10 years can become rather actual, in the beginning of the last year was described in details in the American magazine "Foreign Affairs", however then it didn't cause so painful reaction in the Kremlin as now it's done by the European system.

Or a theme of denouncement of the Soviet-American contract on rockets of average and shorter range of 1987. It's not clear what it will give Russia, except for derivation of resources from the program of expansion of a grouping of "Topol-M". Start-ups of the complex of cruise missiles "Iskander-M" with hardly impress people in the USA - this complex doesn't threaten America.

Though Washington propagandists of new cold war and frank lobbyists of the American Military-Industrial Complex and Pentagon are satisfied. They in reply to unilateral denouncement of the contract by the Kremlin, easily and with pleasure will lobby acceptance of reciprocal measures - expansions of groupings of the American ballistic and cruise missiles of average range in Baltic, Poland, in the Ukraine and in Georgia.

One shouldn't doubt that everything will happen exactly so.
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