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The Kremlin Even Didn’t Understand That It Lost Nuclear War

The Kremlin Even Didn’t Understand That It Lost Nuclear War
Baranov Anatoly 10.12.2012

Russia continues its work on creation of the latest samples of strategic arms, the Chief of the Presidential Administration of Russia Sergey Ivanov declared at a meeting with authorized representatives of Vladimir Putin.

"I would like to assure all of you that the fact that we have developed new systems of arms: "Bulava", "Yars", "Topol-M" — doesn't mean that we don't work on the next things. There will be liquid ones. There should be different variants," — Ivanov told answering question of expediency of the equipment of domestic missile defense system with nuclear warheads in reply to placement of the rockets Patriot in Turkey.

"Nevertheless I would refrain from speaking about deployment of rockets Patriot in Turkey as about antimissile system. After all it’s their air defense system," — he added.

Well, what could be said here?

I can't say that Sergey Ivanov or Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev or Nikolay Patrushev are silly people. No, of course, they don't possess outstanding abilities, but certainly they have sensible mind and some life experience. Just questions of defense of the country, its military and technical potential are situated somewhere on the periphery of their consciousness. Approximately as questions of the Marxist-Leninist theory in the heads of party org men of Brezhnev times – there’s some concept as well as skills in pronouncing ritual words, while the essence of the question doesn't touch consciousness at all. One told ritual formula and forgot it.

Questions of the national defense excite the country leaders much less, than at Stalin or even Brezhnev times - those also weren't outstanding experts in the field of equipment, as well as in the field of military art, but importance of question forced them to participate personally in each meeting of the State Defense Committee, to learn the details, to know tactical and technical characteristics by heart, not to mention strategic tasks for new systems of arms.

For present state heads this question isn't so important as, say, fluctuations of the world prices for gas or situation in the currency markets. As a result not specialist Rogozin reported about situation in the military and industrial complex and not specialist Shoygu about situation in the army to not specialists Putin and Medvedev. It is enough. Casually dropped by them words are enough to understand what they understood.

Let's say "Topol-M" flew up for the first time in 1994 and the last start-up of the rocket happened 7 years ago. So, Ivanov’s phrase "we have developed" sounds, to put it mildly, not true. "Yars" also can't be considered innovative break as it’s simply deep modernization of same "Topol-M". Only lazy people haven’t written about “Bulava” – not flying variant of Topol-M only for sea basing... Nobody corrected - because all, as they say, "not to case a groat”.

The same with liquid rockets - all know that heavy missile "Voevoda-2" is simply restored "Voevoda" being in service for many years. Even restoration of already produced rocket represents difficult, long-playing challenge for the domestic industry. Restoration of "Voevoda" was required because of a wrong stake on easy solid propellant rockets which failed to replace heavy missiles being in service - again because of industry problems not capable to produce them in sufficient for rearmament of Strategic Missile Forces quantity.

While the questions which were asked at the conference were very serious and were counted on competence of the interlocutors.

Placement of rockets of average and small range in Turkey is historical and, perhaps, geostrategic problem for our country since such rockets appeared in nature. Still the Caribbean Crisis was caused aiming to place the American rockets of average range "Jupiter" in Turkey.

By the way the Afghan war began from similar problem - because of threat of placement of the American rockets in the foothills of Hindu Kush.

Words of Ivanov - the former first Deputy Prime Minister of the defensive industry - that "Patriot" in Turkey are exclusively complexes of air defense and have no relation to antimissile defense show level of his competence in the matter. Hardly he knows characteristics of anti-rocket ERINT making this complex.

The problem is not only that Patriot system is capable to interception not only aircraft equipment, but also rockets. The standard size of the rockets used in Patriot system allows to replace them on the same launchers with rockets of average range, or to equip regular rockets with nuclear warheads in general. The same problem was at placement of Patriot complexes in Eastern Europe, for some reason Ivanov haven’t got that it’s the same problem. As well as those who listened to him including top management of the country.

After placement of complexes Patriot alongside the perimeter of the Russian Federation the USA and NATO get enormous strategic advantage in the field of Strategic nuclear forces. If to take into account that fact that they also have multiple advantage in quantity and, the main thing, in quality of the equipment, it gives the USA final military advantage over Russia. While "diplomacy of gas pipe" which Putin tried to use to bribe a mode in Ankara, as we see, was inefficient – let’s recollect Putin's recent urgent voyage to Turkey.

As we see, efficiency of defense industry complex is defined not by capitalization of enterprises, but by ability to produce rockets and aircraft carriers, planes and tanks – at that of the best quality and in overwhelming quantity. While they in the Kremlin consider "losses" which the national defense brings.

In essence, we deal either with scandalous incompetence, or with treachery of the national interests. Though there’s one more guess - we deal with both in complex

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