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Battles of the Cruel Century
Каlashnikov Maxim 15.07.2008
What wars, revolutions and conflicts do we have to wait for in the near future?
Reading materials of the western analysts you see the flow of their thoughs: it is necessary to rescue urgently ecology of the Earth as continuation of present barbarous exploitation of its nature will lead to a turn of inconceivable cataclysms - up to mass extinction of mankind. It's possible to do by reducing a level of impetuous consumption: a conclusion which has been long time ago done by the Russian intellectuals.
However here you are the core of the most tragical conflict of XXI century: reduction of consumption means the death of the ruing mode - capitalism as well as the deepest social and economic crisis. The same will happen if people will create new model of civilization - the frames of capitalism are too tight to it. But former elites will protect capitalist system up to the end. That is why the world today is involved in severe Megacrisis. Human mankind is already guaranteed astounding shocks, it will be a question of life and death of mankind.
Whether it is possible to overcome global Distemper? What decisions of the Main question will be offered? What should the Russian world do in this situation?
SPACE OF DECISIONS: FROM «NEW MIDDLE AGES» UP TO NEUROWORLD
Having no possibility to foresee nuances and particulars we, nevertheless, are capable to foresee possible strategy of way out from Megacrisis.
The first way: creation of civilization of a new type, that with the help of scientific and technical and social revolutions will remove present problems. That is - it will work off mankind from dangerous "power of oil and gas", will finish with consumer madness, will take off exorbitant anthropogenous loading from ecosphere of the Earth, will generate creonomic instead of economy, will lead to a qualitative leap in development of a person. We are talking about conscious and persistent construction of a mode following capitalism: the one which in the beginning of XX century was called communism and today many call Neuroworld (cognitive or anthropos epoch).
Such way is being offered already by many thinkers in the Russian world: Sergey Pereslegin, Jury Gromyko, Rodion Rusov, Jury Krupnov, Sergey Kugushev and many others. Including - the author of these lines: in the books "Saddle a Lightning!", "Superperson Speaks Russian", "The Star of Captivating Risk" and "The Third Project".
However an opportunity of such way is realized also by some western intellectuals. For example it is possible to mention as an example executive director of the American Center of the Main Nanotechnology Michael A.Treder who took part in the conference already mentioned by us "Crossroads for Planet Earth" organized by Foundation For the Future in the spring, 2006. The way suggested by Treder is possible to call "Tsiolkovsky Plus Nanotech". So, huge, resource wasting, ecologically dangerous industry is replaced by small, supereconomic nanofactories capable to make everything and everywhere from "pasture raw material". A threat of ecological catastrophe and famine is removed, the problem of shortage of natural resources disappears. Systems with usage of artificial intellect is widely developed.
The person with the help of nano- and biotechnologies self-improves that leads to appearance of new sentient beings - trance and postpeople - on the Earth (alongside with old mankind). Simultaneously mankind comes back to a way of space expansion, creating new dwellings in the universe besides the Earth - cradle.
This way is as though being supplemented by bioecotechnological offer (offer to organize "Evergreen Revolution" proceeded from the Indian participant of the conference, professor Kesavana). That is, people create new type of settlements - bioecological ones, widely using ecologically salutary biothech for manufacture of the foodstuffs and set of the goods. Basically, there are supporters of such way among scientists in the USA, the EU is also almost on a path of the forced development of biotech.
However all this means demolition of capitalism: similar technologies objectively destroy market-monetary mode. So, similar way will demand suppression of furious resistance of influential forces of the former world. Not only the western financial and industrial capital but also, for example, the Asian industrial elites - as we are talking about abolition of their "industrial platforms". There is no use talking about resistance of oil-and-gas lobby: it is so obvious. Construction of new world will demand resolute, literally communistic mobilization of society; it objectively generates the conflict between old mankind and people advanced with the help of high technologies.
The second way: not to touch capitalism up to the last - till the time when everything will crush and it will be necessary to act cruelly and quickly. There will be no transition to a new, higher in comparison with capitalism stage of development of society in this variant. On the contrary, for the sake of preservation of authority of former elites returning to "new Middle Ages" happens (or as historian Andrey Fursov considers, to "new slave-owning"). The problem of ecological overloading of the Earth, of food supply and overpopulation is solved in the most severe way: extinction of the 5/6 of population. The quantity of mankind "is corrected" up to limiting billion - one and a half billion persons. Such variant was described by the great Russian-Soviet philosopher, scientist and visionary Ivan Efremov wrote to 1968 in the novel "Hour of the Bull". There planet Тоrmans experiences ecological catastrophe and "demographic correction", having stabilized as oligarchical dictatorship. Scientific and technical development stops, "wise refusal" from space expansion takes place, superfluous population (noncompetitive and unqualified) are destroyed in the temples of Gentle death.
Fantasy is a fantasy but today as we already know, the western scientists periodically express opinion that it's better to lose the majority of the population of a planet but to keep civilization. A theory that only 20% of people are necessary to economic to manufacture and consume, that national states inevitably die off (for, say, they became a handicap on a way of progress and rescue) became hardly not the most prevailing in the western "political economy". As they say, taboo has been broken - the process is proceeding. The theme of global and optimum control of use of natural resources with the help of supranational authority sounds even more often.
There is a guess of Sergey Kurginjan as a variant of such script: the world will be divided into a postmodernist core (West) with stopped development - and periphery: Islamic Caliphate. With low technology, poor - and also with stopped development. Well, such is quite possible and after "demographic correction".
Such succession of events can be sped up: if to thin out billions poor, "not market" population of the third world with the help of superepidemic from which inhabitants of a core of capitalist system would be vaccinated. Similar future is depicted in the work of Zakhar Oskotsky "Last Tower of Troy" and in the books of the author of these lines ("Superperson Speaks Russian", "Christening by Fire: Struggle of Giants" - "Naked Sun"). In this case genetically designed bioweapon is applied to defeat color races. Something similar is assumed also by young Russian thinker Valery Aleksandrov: only he uses "usual" black smallpox, inoculations from which have ceased to be done long time ago. In his variant a smallpox strongly thins out mankind, at that the West is rescued from it due to vaccination whereas the third world which doesn't have it sustains horrifying human losses. Except for illness famine and chaos inevitable in the third world in a case of pandemic will be "cleaners" of the Earth. After the end of "thinning out" something like new feudalism will be established on the Earth: former elites can be kept and transform their authority to the new form.
All this seems today a terrible fantasy. But I dare to remind: in the beginning of summer, 1914 it seemed to the majority of population of civilized countries that the Golden Age of boundless growth of humanity, riches and scientific - industrial progress came. A century of calmness and nonviolence. Nobody believed that incident in Sarajevo would develop firstly into the world massacre and by and large - in a bloody meat grinder and Great depression which would last thirty years. Long wars were declared as impossible by the majority of experts. People made a severe mistake.
The further - the exacter "neomedieval" script depicted by us with "demographic correction" would become. In fact it's more safe for ruling elites, if it is possible to say so, than the script of creation of Neuroworld, it's less "power-consuming". In fact in this case elite of the western "capitalist core" would have only to sacrifice a part of the Asian financial and industrial elite. While in case of construction of Neuroworld elite should be changed completely. For the old one is suitable to a new epoch no more, than Duke Burgundian - to management of airbuilding factory or electronic concern.
Such severe variants by definition assume destruction of the Russian world and mastering of its Klondike - huge open spaces of Siberia and the Far East, these receptacles of fresh water, extant ecosystems, fertile lands and the most valuable natural resources. One Primorski Krai, Sakhalin and Kamchatka cost a lot! At that the struggle for the Russian open spaces should be developed between the USA (for them it's - an elixir of rejuvenation) and China (for it our open spaces - condition of survival). Brazil with its boiling from biota Amazonian pool, Peru, Ecuador and also extensive areas of Africa with their biodiversity could also become subjects of desire of new misters of "thinned out world". At that it's quite easy "to smooth out" Black continent from unnecessary population.
Northern Russian rivers in Siberia become special resource: their water pushed to the south allows to transform huge, but droughty spaces of Kazakhstan and Central Asia into a new granary of a planet. Read memoirs of the well-known imperial Minister of Finance and prime-minister Sergey Juljevicha Vitte. In the first volume he describes with ecstasy opportunities that could be received after irrigation of fantastically fertile grounds of Turkestan covered with ancient silt.
One more geopolitic resource for which there will be a struggle will be the Russian chernozem zone that stretches across Northern Black Sea Coast, across Crimea and Taurida, on a left bank of Dnepr to the Northern Caucasus and former "southern Ukraine": Oryol, Belogorodsk, Kursk, Ryazan, Tambov areas. These territories, now belonging to the Russian Federations, Ukraine and Transdniestria is also possible to transform into the areas of latifundiums of New World system, having cleared them from "superfluous population". Thus Islamic threat from the part of Crimea and Northern Caucasus is being destroyed with the help of the same "selective pandemics". However the European part of the Russian Federation where the population was pulled together in cities and countrysides turned to "human deserts" - also a tidbit. Here you are both ecosystems (Valdai), spaces and woods, rivers and lakes like Seliger, Nero, Plescheevo, lake Onega and Chudskoe. If these are not the right places for moving of new misters of "reformed" Earth?
And, certainly, dissolution of the Arctic ice and clarification of water areas of Northern Ocean from them predetermines the fight for the control over fantastic mineral riches of an ocean bottom. Additional factor that transforms the Russian Arctic regions into delicious piece of cake - in connection with global warming, quite probably, it will be turned into one more reserve area of settling. To some Neo-Scandinavia: not tropics, certainly, but is quite suitable for living and effective use of local bioresources.
The task of the core of capitalist (neofeudal-postmodernist) world in the given script - not to let China to Latin America and Africa, to cut it off from the Russian open spaces, to thin out Chinese.
That will be, most likely, new geopolitics of the Cruel century.
Naturally, the Russian Federation in its present kind (raw economy, inert-bureaucratic, struck with corruption control system) will not go through Megacrisis. The Russian Federation becomes a booty for the strong. As well as Ukraine and Belarus.
So, the Russian civilization has only one way to survival and victory: to build the world of the future epoch with own hands. No, not to entered existing world market but to create completely new... already not a market but the whole new-reality. Passive joining present global market is doomed to failure: it was created not by us. The Russians are awaited there only with raw material and production of the first repartition. For all the rest from Russia there are in that market - only close closets. Services on start of satellites, manufacturing of some units for complex projects - no more then that. To squeeze in such "niches" huge Russian civilization is impossible. It is necessary to create superinnovative revolution - and to create new space.
By and large, it's the best answer both to Cruel century and to expansion of the NATO and to the Ukrainian nationalism. Yes, to everything that today challenges us, absolutely to all. Unfortunately, this true reaches the Russian establishment plodding along, too slowly.
Whether it will reach?
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