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Stability, Stability, Halvah, Halvah ....

Stability, Stability, Halvah, Halvah ....
Vladimir Postnikov 20.09.2007

In Russia - the new prime minister. "Nobody from somewhere" as one my good friend dubbed his appearance. Certainly, it was an exaggeration, only one day was required to learn, whence it and that one of them (I mean also the present President of the Russian Federation) owes something to the other. As soon as I learned the news, I vividly imagined faces of all those Russian political scientists who during the last few years were swelling with importance at discussing about possible successors - and smiled. But at once I caught myself at an idea that my smile is not for the good. At once the desire appeared to get to know what this person would tell to understand more quickly "what makes him tick". He said something then there, in the State Duma, at the discussion of his nominee, but I failed to find full text of his performance, only separate citations, like the following: "I consider strategic reference points and the program of concrete actions which was pointed in the Message of the president to Federal Assembly as priorities - supply of stability of economic and public development and infusion of more dynamic to all the work of the government as due to the effective structure so increase of personal responsibility of the officials". I want to ask very much: "Whether it is impossible to say more precisely?" All Messages of the present president to Federal Assembly represent a set of populist declarations which have nothing in common with concrete actions being carried out. As to reference points sounded by Mr. Putin, they can be reduced to simple scheme: to the right - to the left -forward - back.

All that is possible to get from the citation mentioned of the nominee to a high post then is - the course remains the same.


It was confirmed also by Zubkov's answer on a question of one of the deputies about possible changes in structure of the government: "Dear People's Deputies. Really, it was done a lot by the government lately in the social block and you are the participants of these positive changes. Children's death rate has decreased, there is a number of positive moments in allocation of the state investments on health services. But at the same time, I agree that the chosen strategy was correct but execution was useless. That's why, certainly, there appeared a lot of problems in social block. People are dissatisfied. That's why, certainly, we will take measures and staff changes have boiled up, they are necessary and correspondent measures will be taken".

It's real sweet! Strategy - correct, execution - useless.

I want to notice at once that Zubkov repeats himself having reworded known, even idiomatic expression: "We tried the best - you know the rest". Useless execution - is a property of present authority as all without exception present "executors" have quite concrete "useful" desire "to be in time" and absolutely precise reference points to which they aspire by means of "concrete actions". Nowhere else except here stability of its existence (present authority) has been reached. To break it - means to cast all country into an unstable condition. To hold it back - means to lose potential support of electorate. As a result we have heard that "it is necessary to create structure - authorized body which daily, not from time to time will settle questions with corruption". And nothing more. Quite natural question appeared in my mind: who stirred to realization of this good intention till now? And who amnestied all corrupted persons after the greater part of the state property was already vandalized by those corrupted persons?


Another smile was caused by the citation that "the Russian oil, gas, our wood, fish and other natural riches and resources should bring much greater feedback". What concrete actions new prime-minister wishes to make to fulfill this good wish?


A wish "to increase the depth of processing with application of the advanced technologies" I consider as the next bubble for fools without any comments.


Stability, stability, stability - is a leitmotif of everything that Zubkov managed to say as the nominee to the post. Nothing more.

Whether situation in Russia is so stable as it is approved by new prime-minister? Besides the ones mentioned above, another good intention was sounded: "on the one hand, not to admit excessive strengthening of rouble, on the other hand - to keep inflation". Here you are what I would like to stop a little bit detailed. Mid-annual official rates of inflation for last five years made approximately 10 %. We shall assume that it was. Proceeding from it, we can calculate provisional inflation for the last 5 years (from August, 2002 up to August, 2007) which would make a little bit more than 60%. In other words purchasing ability of rouble decreased on the size corresponding to the inflation. At that rouble rate exchange in relation to Euro changed not very significantly from 31.9 for one Euro in August, 2002 up to 35.01 fro one Euro in August, 2007 (approximately 12%). What a mighty strengthening of rouble for the last five years. At that inflation continues by the old rates.  

If I said something about future default? No!

I said nothing about mechanism of maintenance of liquidity in bank system of the Russian Federation. I did not mention that inept actions on struggle against money-laundering can provoke panic and mass withdrawal of deposits. And for sure I didn't write anything about possible falling of prices for power resources.


I have just compared rates of inflation and the course of rouble in relation to Euro. And nothing more.

I didn't say a word growing advantages of importers of the goods with "deep" and not so deep degree of processing in comparison with the Russian manufacturers of similar goods.


All that I done is that I simply specified small delayed-action bomb which could blow up at any moment and at that I am being convinced that everything is stable in Russia.


Yes, I know, that there is a Stabilization Fund. But it's not rubber. Inflation proceeds with constant speed. Besides, we have elections ahead. They would do everything to show stability.

Yes, I know that the public debt was reduced, but thus I know that corporate one where the basic debtors are corporations of fuel and energy complexes has grown many times.


And again appointed head of the government can fail to know everything about it. But instead of a concrete plan of action I hear only one spell: Stability, stability, halvah, halvah... The Deputies liked it. I - didn't.


Advice of the inhabitant: Citizens, keep money in hard currency and in reliable bank! And tried to convert your rouble savings before presidential elections.

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