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Мichael Delyagin: Small Falsification on the Background of General Collapse

Мichael Delyagin: Small Falsification on the Background of General Collapse
Аnna Ivanova 26.03.2009

- Michael Gennadjevich, Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin considers rise of the world share markets and increase of the price for oil temporary phenomenon, he expects fast correction. "Calls of world crisis are kept. Some rise of the share markets and increase of prices for oil should not relax us. It, most likely, is temporary improvement and in view of the basic indicators of the American and world economy new correction and new decrease in share indexes will take place in the near future", - Kudrin said on Tuesday on collegium of Ministry of Economic Development. To what extend his forecast is right?


- Here, maybe, he is not mistaken, anyway activity of the government of the Russian Federation in no way promote optimistic forecasts. Think for yourself: industrial recession (in comparison with similar period of last year) begun in November and made then 8,7% (in view of calendar factor - 6.5%) in December reached 10.3% and in January grew up to 14,0% - maximum level since 1994 (though in Ukraine it made 34%). It is enough to specify that manufacture of cars in Russia (including assembly factories belonging to foreigners) was reduced in January fivefold. Even under the official forecast in 2009 industrial recession will reach 7,4%. Reduction of cargo rail transportation which made in November 11.5%, in December reached 20.9% and in January - 32,2%: economy paralyzed not only by crisis but also by Putin's bureaucracy slowly stops. Real incomes of the population decreased in November on 6.1%, in December decreased on 11,6% (because of high seasonal payments in December, 2007) and in January - on 6,7%. Investment recession, just in December, 2008 being within the limits of statistical error (2.3%), in January reached 15.5%, so even the official forecast proceeds from its depth in 14% on the results of 2009. The number of unemployed increased, on specified data of Rosstat, on 272 thousand people in October, on 273 thousand in November, on 511 thousand in December and on 300 thousand - in January: for four months 1,36 million Russians lost the job and failed to find new one - almost as many as are being admitted by the country leaders as "officially registered"!


- However recently Kudrin was proud very much of gold holdings of the country which ostensibly will provide stability in Russia at every weather conditions. After it the same thing was repeated by prime-minister Putin, certainly, in a little bit simplified and schematized form. What's going on in reality?


- I already wrote in "New Newspaper" about that small lie on a background of the general collapse or also how Central Bank preserved borrowed, as a matter of fact, reserves. From the beginning of December, 2008 Bank of Russia has been involving means of banks to special currency correspondent accounts. The reason of it is restriction of buying up of currency by banks: fighting with speculative operations of banks (but not of their clients) Bank of Russia limited currency sums which they could have on corresponding accounts in other commercial banks. In result mass transfer of contributions of the population from roubles into currency, that is inflow of currency to banks, put them before a question what to do with it. It's simply impossible to keep hold of the currency: it is forbidden by new specifications. To buy roubles for this currency - means to incur losses and even to go bankrupt during further devaluation of rouble. To invest currency abroad getting it away from the country is possible but is accessible not to all. The only popular way out - to keep it on special interest-free accounts of Bank of Russia, incurring losses at the rate of one percent under deposits of the population and hoping that it will be possible somehow to cover them with the help of other types of activity (for example, overestimating interest rates under credits for real sector).


The sum of means on these accounts grows rather quickly: in December they made 20 billion dollars (including for a week of December, 12-19 their increase made 15,4 billion dollars), in January - another 15 billion dollars and in the beginning of February, as it was informed at the session of economic session of the forum "Concept - 2020", which passed under bravura slogan "Crisis as development", their sum reached 43 billion dollars.
Everything's ok (it's necessary to limit currency gambling for sure, though there are for this purpose more simple, effective and less painful means), if Bank of Russia wouldn't include means of the Russian banks from these currency accounts into international reserves of Russia. Thus it roughly and openly breaks methodology of Special Standard of IMF on distribution of data accepted by it and misleads experts and public, overestimating the size of the international reserves and, accordingly, exaggerating degree of stability of the currency market.


- So, will it proceed the same way? Will anybody bust?


- Meanwhile the scales of this exaggeration are only growing: for January the share of means of the banks on special currency corresponding accounts in Bank of Russia in the international reserves of Russia increased from 4,7 up to 9.0% and for the first days of February - up to 11,1%! These reserves, if to use the standard methodology of their calculation, make already not 386,6 billion dollars (as of February, 13) but at best 343,6 billion.. Thus, real falling of the international reserves of Russia for 6,5 months of their decrease (after August, 8, 2008) made 254,4 billion dollars or 42,6% from their maximal mark (598,1 billion dollars). It's clear that even essential delay of their reduction will not allow to keep social and economic stability - it looks even official propagation already forgot about it.


- It means there is a lie, there is a bald lie and there is statistics?


- Nevertheless statistics always lags behind life. Numerous interrogations and observation of different manufactures show: in January economy of Russia as a whole adapted to crisis conditions after November failure. The general sensation reminds of 1993: if the state can give economy working assets and at least partially will check their use, tendencies will be broken and slow restoration of production will begin. Unfortunately, the state, most likely, will fail to do it as the mere logic of policy of restoration of working assets demands refusal of ideology of liberal fundamentalism (as well as of the policy of compression of monetary weight for the sake of maintenance of stability of rouble and protection of the international reserves carried out by Bank of Russia) and, the main thing, essential restriction of corruption.


- So, what will the government choose?


- For the time the choice is made in style of 90th years: Bank of Russia practically stopped support of liquidity of economy to compel various speculators to sell currency bought by them and thus to fed international reserves and to support rouble. Idea that the currency was bought up by one subjects of economy, while the other will die without support of liquidity is simply inaccessible to the liberal fundamentalists thirsting to dip the country back into economic catastrophe of 90th. At preservation of today's economic policy enterprises will "eat up" working assets up to the middle - end of March, then in April - May the new coil of recession which will capture different sectors - from civil mechanical engineering up to small business will begin.


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