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Government of RF Marked Down Economic Recession Minimum Fivefold

Government of RF Marked Down Economic Recession Minimum Fivefold
Delyagin Michael 28.03.2009

Under official documents of the government, in 2009 it expects rather small economic recession - in 2,2%. Yes, certainly, it won't help very much notorious doubling of gross national product by 2010 but on a background of expected recession in Eurozone (2,1%) and especially in the USA (2,6%) it looks quite adequately.   


World crisis, there's nothing to be done and we are far from being the worse.   


However, if to estimate not the relative size of recession declared by the government but absolute volume of gross national product on the basis of which the budget - 2009 corrected by it was calculated, one acquires different impression.


After the government extremely easily lowered forecast of gross national product on 21.5% or on 11,06 billion roubles (from 51.48 authorized in October of the last year up to 40,42 billion roubles), gross national product of 2009 appeared even in nominal expression, without taking into account rise in prices lower than gross national product of 2008 (on data of Rosstat - 41,54 billion roubles) on 2,7%. That is even if to assume that there will be no rise in prices in 2009, it will turn out that economic recession put in by the government into the budget is all the same essential - on fifth part - deeper, than recession which the same government declared to society and itself.   


In fact there will be rise in prices. It's already taking place - not only in consumer but also in industrial sector where it has been renewed after five-month reduction of prices. Prices of industry in February grew on 2,8% (thus having exceeded inflation almost on two third). Direct reason - growth of costs due to increase of prices and tariffs adjusted by the state, first of all on gas and electric power. However, deeper reason - exhaustion of the material stocks and working assets saved up by enterprises, their spending in many respects was the reason of falling of prices. Reduction of prices comes to an end together with sale off of commodity rests - in conditions of total arbitrariness of monopolies even shortage of liquidity as in 90th years will conduct not to reduction of prices but to distribution of spreading of the practice of non-payments and barter circuits.


If in January, 2009 rise in prices in industry just started here and there, in February it got face-to-face character and touched all integrated branches without exception. Even if to propose that gross national product deflator (general rise in prices in all economy, not just in consumer sector which is reflected by parameter of inflation) in 2009 will be below officially expected inflation (13%) and will make 10%, under condition of zero economic growth of gross national product in 2009 it should make 45,694 billion roubles.


Comparison of this size to the size of gross national product expected by the government on the basis of which the federal budget for 2009 has been calculated - 40,42 billion roubles - shows that real economic recession put in by the government in the federal budget for 2009 makes not 2.2 but 11,5%!


As in practice rise in prices in economy, most likely, will be higher, than stipulated 10%, the given estimation is seem to be minimal.


Thus, the government, aspiring to embellish situation developing in the country and to absolve itself of all responsibility at least for long and destructive inactivity, marked down economic recession more than fivefold.


On this background other "pranks" - like understating the scales of reduction of the profit which will be obviously higher, than declared 25.7% (if for no other reason than economy of Russia became unprofitable, on data of Rosstat, just in IV quarter of the last year when cumulative losses exceeded cumulative arrived on 442,2 billion roubles), ignoring of falling of tax collecting natural in crisis conditions, understating of number of unemployed (considered by the government on March, 19 forecast on which there would be 6 million people in 2009 was exceeded already in January) - simply lose their value.   


They may say that understating of rates of economic recession is harmless, for it is put in only in the forecast, while the country lives under the budget imposed on basis as if plausible nominal size of gross national product. However one shouldn't forget that the forecast of social and economic development - complex and ramified document, part of its elements are being calculated on the basis of relative, not absolute parameters - more than fivefold divergence of the last will make the forecast unbalanced. Besides many calculations having concrete - economic and even commercial value are made both in state and in commercial sector on the basis of applications of the government about decrease in gross national product in relative expression, not on the basis of its absolute size. Eventually, key reference point for economy is the value of economic growth (or recession) and many calculations have been already made on this basis and decisions according to them have been already accepted.   


Those subjects of the Russian economy - both enterprises and population - which will have to live according to these decisions, will have already in the nearest months to get proves that the lie is unprofitable.   


Especially when it has official character.

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