On April, 9 there was a gas conflict between Moscow and ôurkmenia because of the explosion of gas pipe line SC-4 to the North - West of Tashauz city, near the Turkmen-Uzbek border. Mode of Kurbankuli Berdimukhammedov accused "Gazprom" which sharply reduced sorting of Turkmen gas.
That is an external outline of the conflict. Internal is that authority of Putin's friend Miller put "Gazprom" across catastrophe. The Russian Federation risks to lose Turkmen gas which will go round about the Russian Federation - and to get the sharpest energy crisis.
DESTINY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IS IN THE POCKET OF TURKMEN
On the eve of new, 2009 year the head of "Gazprom" went to Ashkhabad to negotiate with Kurbankuli Berdimukhammedov for purchases of 50 billion cubic metre of Turkmen gas this year. In fact RF for already long time fails to provide itself with gas, filling shortage due to the purchase in ôurkmenia. Therefore Moscow does not want at all that gas from ôurkmenia go round about the Russian Federation (as well as Ukraine) though the pipe line "Nebuchadnezzar" ("Nabukko") being projected on the West. The European Community (it relieves Europe of dependence of its gas supply on the whims of Moscow and on the transit through chronically unstable and poor Ukraine) is interested in this project.
Iran and Turkey are interested in "Nabukko". Gas pipe should get gas from Iran and ôurkmenia, cross Caspian sea and farther - to go through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary - though "gas-distributing point" in Austria. If "Nabukko" will be built, a hole in at least 50 billion cubic meters will be made in gas balance of the Russian Federation. Moscow should choose: to deliver gas on export but to leave cities, power stations and industry of the Russian Federation without gas, or - to lose currency from deliveries to Europe but not to leave the Russian Federation without "blue fuel". In both cases collapse awaits economy of white-blue-red: in the first case - because of the stop of power and industry, in the second one - because of ruin of "Gazprom" and reduction of currency receipts. It could be said without exaggeration that the destiny of the Russian Federation henceforth - in the pocket of Turkmenia and personally ëurbankuli Berdimukhammedov.
Therefore it's vital for white-blue-red not to admit construction of "Nabukko" and to continue buying of Turkmen gas for re-export (as well as for filling of the holes in gas balance) putting up with profitability of such operation - is minimal. For this reason Miller on the eve of new 2009 departed to Ashkhabad...
YOU CAME TO A HEAD, MONKEY!
The authority of white-blue-red monkeys in 1992-2009 skillfully drove the Russian Federation into a gas trap.
For years of the Russian "independence" nothing was made to avoid gas crisis. There was no reduction in consumption of gas at thermal stations in the European part of the Russian Federation due to applying of water-coal fuel, there was no network of nuclear heating plants constructed (while it is possible even for regional centers, installations of RUTA are created in Dubna). Construction of new atomic power stations were postponed. They didn't build LNG plants to get it out directly to the West passing Ukraine. They didn't build additional branches through allied Belarus - Belarus was pushed from the Russian Federation. They failed to involve fine deposits of the European part of the Russian Federation using half dirigibles - locomotives (the project of the group of Veniamin Dmitriev). They didn't make anything! Only stole and exploited "Gazprom" wear and tear, having burdened it with the debts under western credits. They made everything that Europe began to advance "Nabukko". Now - they came to a head.
"EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT" IN ACTION
Miller arrived to Ashkhabad alone - without command of specialists and experts. In fact it's the usual way of behaviour of Putin's managers: to act quick - and - dirty. Actually they are - ignorant monkeys. Instead of signing with Ashkhabad an agreement on the prices of purchase under the formula deducing procurement price from the current world quotations Putin's buddy generously put a figure - 350 or 300 dollars (my agents give different information on this occasion).
In the beginning of 2009 world prices for gas (just after oil) fell. Now, due to Miller, "Gazprom" should buy gas from Turkmenia for 300 and more dollars for one thousand cubes and sell to Europe - on 230 dollars. Only this one thing plunges "Gazprom" into huge losses, while it's already suffering under the weight of debts. In every normal state (or at Stalin) Miller with his company would be thrown out from "Gazprom", moreover they would be court-marshaled. For such "effective management". But Mr. Putin protects his buddies. Even at the cost of making the Russian Federation terrible damage.
Top-management of "Gazprom", when it understood that it made a fool of itself, decided to reduce sorting of Turkmen gas without prior arrangement. It closed a latch, the Turkmen continued to swing - and the pipeline near Tashauz exploded. White-blue-red and other postSoviet macaques - enemies of all complicated systems. And pipeline ones also.
Result: dead spoiled relations with ôurkmenia. And - the prospect of "Nabukko" ahead.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF EVENTS
Now it is possible to predict what will happen farther. All efforts of the Kremlin to expand capacities of pipelines "Central Asia - Center" and to tie up all deliveries of gas from ôurkmenia on it fell head over heels.
ëurbankuli Berdimukhammedov already refused to transfer "Gazprom" work contract on construction of a "chain" from Iolotansky deposits to Caspian sea (gas deposit Southern Iolotan-Yashlar having the status of "superhuge"). Earlier they thought in Moscow that the branch would be connected to the system "Central Asia - the Center". But, apparently, Ashkhabad sees it as the first stage to construction of Transcaspian pipeline and further - to construction of "Nabukko".
If it happen, there will be the end of raw economy of RF. Without dependence on a course of universal Megacrisis.
Authority of white-blue-red swines made everything so that it happened this way. It turned out to be devilishly worthless and helpless. Already Turkmenia "beats cold".
Conclusions, reader? You will make them by yourselves. I suppose, you are not children.