Кто владеет информацией,
|16 dec 2017|
The Last Fight of Gennady Zyuganov
Dmitry Barshinin 20.11.2007
What is the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and whether it's so terrible to vote for it? We came across tow types of objectives against voting for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in the network. The first one: the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is same "proKremlin" as well as all the others - what is the difference? I suppose that this statement in true in a way. But I see at least the results of roll-call votes. Though I am surprised at that with inertness of functionaries of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in relation, for example, to the strikes. Nevertheless - there is no other variant.
By voting for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (even not supporting its idea) will be possible to make at least one useful business - to liquidate insuperable at present monopoly of the Kremlin in the State Duma. Or it seems to you that it's a normal scheme when everything is being solved by one party, to be more exact even - by one person making signals how to vote to fractions? I don't seem it normal. And, if this order will be broken - it already will be great achievement.
Yes, there is one reason - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation in fact already had a moment when the party could pass decisions together with allies by the majority of voices in the Duma. It is known also how muzzily it used that opportunity - the vote of no confidence to Yeltsin failed, all budgets were somehow accepted, all the cabinets though even with Kirienko, Chubajs and Nemtsov were approved. And elections of 1996 when it was possible and necessary to struggle Zyuganov "lost ground". It is the truth. But it's - not the whole truth.
Today Zyuganov is already far than 60, he is in good form, but nevertheless he should understand - these elections are the last for him, at least in a role of the leader of all national-patriotic left opposition. He has everything that is necessary to meet an old age without thinking of the sizes of pension. But he is not a monocelled essence, he has understanding of that the life should be lived so that it wouldn't be painful at the end - further following the text either Montaigne or Ostrovsky.
So, Zyuganov wishes to give last fight! Today he is a different person, not the one he used to be 1996. He has got belief in the God! He sings "International" when he is alone, close to him people told me about it.
I saw him, talked to him when he came to our city. I testify: it's not at all that Zyuganov whom we knew earlier. He will really struggle for authority.
Many things which seem ridiculous look differently in this plan, the same "business of neotrotkists", the same concessions to a mode - in fact he really "handed over" people truly serving to party. But for the sake of what he did it?
I am sure - he did it to lull vigilance of the opponent, to seem grown old to them, coward, dependent and unable on serious step. And he succeeded in it!
The authority cleaned away all obstacles in its way to victory on elections - all over again having eliminated everyone who was capable of sharp steps, was capable to go up to the end in the left and patriotic opposition. As a result neither national Bolsheviks, nor Kasyanov followers, nor Kasparov, nor the Russian Communist Working Party - Russian Party of Communists, nor even Baburin will not participate in elections, which means that they will not take voices of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation away. Moreover, having convinced using thin, Byzantian policy the Kremlin that now he is harmless Zyuganov could - with the hands of the Kremlin and personally of Surkov! - to clean from political arena also "Fair Russia" with Mironov away.
Now let's look at the situation as it is for today: even non-Communists, even super-duper liberals are sure that today the choice is between two forces - "Edinaya Russia" headed by Putin, or the Communist Party of the Russian Federation with Zyuganov!
Today the rating of Zyuganov's party grows, even according to recognitions of semi-official sociologists though even the rating of "Edinaya Russia" falls!
The Communist Party of the Russian Federation is simply doomed to get quite a lot of voices on parliamentary elections which, as a matter of fact, become "primaries" to presidential ones. And no matter who and what say, Zyuganov will enter presidential election campaign with growing rating.
And now actually about elections. I shall begin with the statement that it's possible to forge totally no more than 10-15% from the general number of voters (and not from among those who come on elections, that is important!) and that the overwhelming part of these falsifications occurs not somewhere but namely on polling stations.
I shall tell for general information how voices are being calculated. They are not simply transferred on the State Automatic System-ELECTIONS. I shall remind that both the members of electoral committees from the parties participating in elections and observers from them are present (have the right to be present) on each polling station. That is - the whole group of people, possibly ideologically contradicting each other, but to a significant degree interested as a whole in not allowing the party in power to get too much.
I shall repeat - they are present there, they have the right to observe, watch in the end the calculation of voices and registration of final reports and even to receive on hands copies of these reports - with signatures of the members of electoral committee and a zeal of the electoral committee. That is - I emphasize - the document, which in case is possible to show also in court.
Parties collect these reports, can hurl them together, calculate, make conclusions. All these reports (which copies - I shall remind - many people have) go upwards - to territorial, regional electoral committees and further - in the Central Electoral Committee. Official results of elections are being made after their calculations (I shall remind - the same occurs in parallel also in staffs of the parties). The State Automatic System-ELECTIONS - is only a way to accelerate data transmission and as a result it gives only preliminary results.
Now we wonder: even supposing presence of intermediate servers for the State Automatic System-ELECTIONS and other technical miracles - whether the authority can and wish to take risk with falsification of voices above the level of reports of the local commissions perfectly knowing that other people also have copies of these primary sources? Unequivocally - no! To play on the quiet here and there at a level of statistical error - it's for God's sake. But no more. More - only up to these reports. That is - on the poling stations. That is exactly the reason, by the way, why signals about infringements, even if as usual "not confirmed" go from the stations - haven't you noticed?
Thus lion's share of possible falsification happens on the stations and elsewhere!
How is it done? There are a lot of ways, I shall not list them in detail. The core ones certainly - outrush of bulletins, absentee ballot, "dead souls". I do not exclude that on these elections, in connection with "perfection of election technologies" the whole buses of citizens with absentee ballots will ply from a station to station as it was in the Ukraine. I do not exclude even that the whole stations for voting of nonexistent persons will be created, - however, I suspect that that is the reason of creation of the vagabond-stations. (Questions of bribery of voters I don't consider - it's a different level).
But! Nearby 1000-1500 persons are submitted to each station. Only! And consequently - whether it is possible to forge a lot of on them, at presence, in the face of observers and other not very loyal public? Well - 100, well 150 "left" voices - at the best! But - no more. That is - 10-15% from the general list of number of voters. At that - I consider really this figure is smaller and I name it only because people respected by me - experts consider it so. So, let's accept it - having enclosed in it also small falsifications on the way from the stations in the Central Election Commission. Let's shift here to the second part having fixed the main conclusion:
Stories that "everything is already solved" and that "they will make as it is necessary to them" - is traveler's tales and disinformation initiated by authority. It can really forge voices no more than 15% from the general number of voters.
What is 15% of voices from the general number of voters?
At 15% presence - it's a half of voices. At 30% presence - third. At 45% presence - a quarter. At 60% presence - the fifth part. The higher is the presence level - the more is the lost in the general number of voices. Here you are - the first, purely arithmetic conclusion:
Increase of the presence of voters, especially - voting against the Kremlin parties is categorically unprofitable to authority! Moreover, if Zyuganov will manage to convince simply to come on elections only a half of voters, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will receive the result comparable with the result of "Edinaya Russia" as the number of people really wishing to vote for the party in power is very little and from those who all the same will reach polling station not sharing in general the views of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation will vote for it.
Certainly, any quantity of voices received on parliamentary elections does not give yet real power, as real power all the same doesn't belong to the Duma. But having received good result on parliamentary elections, Zyuganov can win and presidential elections. And he wants to do it! I trust in it.
From editorial staff: We were inspired with the ardent text which came obviously not from Moscow (the author didn't specify from what region he is, likely, in vain). Really, if Zyuganov has such plans, then we are even not abused that we were in that case used as "the dropping of the history". Let it be said later that "their sacrifices were not in vain" though we didn't sacrifice anything - we were sacrificed.
Only for the sake of what? After all we are closer to the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and well enough imagine what people are there and what are their general motives. Certainly, we do not know what they sing in a bathroom may be really "International". But on the World Russian cathedral one bolshevik said that "it's a shame today in Russia to be poor" and it was remembered.
Therefore we shall tell using Stanislavsky's words: "We do not believe!" But we offer nevertheless to read the text, because there is also such point of view...Michael Delyagin, the chairman of the Editorial staff of FORUM.msk
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