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There Is an Open Vacancy for a Part of Ugo Chaves or at Least Julia Timoshenko in Russia

There Is an Open Vacancy for a Part of Ugo Chaves or at Least Julia Timoshenko in Russia
Baranov Anatoly 15.01.2008

FORUM.msk had a poll on the theme "Who Will Become Next President of Russia?" Results of interrogation are worth making comments on them in detail. Why? Well, even because there are actually presidential elections of the country and this process doesn't practically cause any interest in society. Formally elections are not declared yet but it is already known that there will be no unexpectedness - it's clear who will be the president and percent which will be distributed between other applicants. If there are disputes, than only within the limits of one-two percent. All the rest is already clear.


  • Medvedev (460)
  • Ivanov (43)
  • Zubkov (18)
  • Putin again (200)
  • Zyuganov (97)
  • Zhirinovsky (45)
  • Kasparov (51)
  • We will know his name after the elections on the 2nd of May (309)

If it's ok?


Let's look at least at presidential elections in the USA. It would seem debugged up to the trifles during the centuries procedure, only two parties and rather limited set of candidates who are well known for a long time. Nevertheless it is full of unexpectedness - this time Barack Obama suddenly starts to apply for the post of the candidate from democrats though only a year ago everybody named Hillary Clinton. Another time suddenly the former first lady comes to light. Nobody among republicans even cannot give the answer today, who will become the candidate.

And what do we have?


The list of possible candidates was known already about two years ago. What primaries you are talking about? The fact that the one who will be appointed personally by Putin will go from the Kremlin and even if it will be his dog, was clear from the very beginning as soon as they started talking about future elections.


Here you are data of interrogation - 460 voices and the first place goes to Medvedev. And his basic contender Sergey Ivanov gets 10 times less, only 43 voices - it's clear to all that appointment of the president has already taken place and no Ivanov is being considered. The question is only where has these 43 voices for Ivanov appeared contrary to any common sense? Though there is in fact approximately 7 % of citizens which do not know at all who is the president in Russia today. May be, the ones who simply was not aware that Medvedev had been already appointed, voted for Ivanov?


No Russian barrack obamas will pass, even through registration of the Central Electoral Committee. Well, such unexpected characters as Bukovsky also fly by.


The same was shown also by so-called "oppositional" forces - the candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, certainly, Zyuganov. The candidate from LDPR - Zhirinovsky. It was clear that Kasyanov will go also. Nemtsov removed himself that was predicted also, though he had a rating 2 times higher, than Kasyanov had.


Perhaps, the only "unexpectedness" of the list of candidates to the supreme post was mister Bogdanov. It was clear, that someone should occupy a line of a frontman with the prospect to get 0,1 % of voices, but who it will be - it was possible only to guess.


It's natural also that Zyuganov gets 4,5 times less, than Medvedev even on FORUM.msk where an audience as a whole is oppositional and does not like authority in any type. Zhirinovsky with Kasparov get 2 times less.


It would seem, if there is real opposition in the country, then instead of rotten leaders having personal rating even lower than own parties have, it would be possible to expect bright people known to society - from Nobel winner Alfyorov up to cosmonaut Savitskaya.


But opposition is "nomenclature" one, completely under control of the Kremlin and its actions are also under control. We shall say that Zyuganov's promotion began in the beginning of summer of the last year when it was not possible to be promoted according to all laws of political technologies - too early promotion for sure and with guarantee leads to failure. Or it was necessary to Zyuganov to demonstrate full readiness to defeat and recognize it.


The answers to a question "Putin again?" - 200 voices represent, certainly, special interest. It was already after Putin had appointed the successor. It's clear that the readers meant true, that from a change of the composed the sum does not vary and Putin would continue to rule in the country, anyway, in the near future.


This is a disputable opinion, most likely, Medvedev nevertheless will want to be a high-grade president and not "as though president". But the answer reflects public expectations clearly enough - "meat or fish - thank you for all".


The answer which received the second place in interrogation - 309 voices is similar: "We will know his name after elections on the 2nd of March". Certainly, people joke thus in a situation when it is completely not funny. However such "joke of a hempstring" illustrates public mood very evidently.


Such moods should fail to excite "the party in power" ("party in power", certainly, means far not only "Edinaya Russia" but also much more general and extensive concept). Such moods generate paradoxical voting when the majority on elections is received literally by someone on chance, for example some Bogdanov. Yes, developed technology of voting starting from State Automated System "Vybory" up to the person of the chairman of Central Electoral Committee Churov guarantees well enough from such unexpectedness. But mass discontent when it becomes general to a little degree depends on rational factors such as presence or absence of food staff in the markets or money in a purse.


From this aspect angle I would consider recent and seeming to have no relation to presidential elections event - non appointment of Kobzon the chapter of the Duma committee on culture, Kobzon-Govorukhin's demarche and so on.


"Party in power" turned out to be in such condition when it is not it that is decorated with separate popular persons, but on the contrary - "masters of thoughts" and "idols of generations" stand in turns to receive a place in the party. The authority does not require public persons any longer, moreover, persons start to frighten it with the fact that they can suddenly act independently, corresponding their own decision.


It would seem, the logic prompts that it is better to have such person as Kobzon in the chapter of Committee on culture of the State Duma as he already headed that committee, has wide experience and everything would be ok with his intelligence, outlook and experience. But it becomes contra-indication to a supervising post - well, if suddenly Kobzon once will decide and peg for president? His colleague Govorukhin, by the way, was already pegged. But Govorukhin went as spoiler to Zyuganov, when he represented some danger. If he or Kobzon will peg now, on the background of obvious deficit of personalities in the lists of candidates, more than that not from opposition but from one of power groupings? Supposition is, certainly, absolutely unreal, but such person as Kobzon could, meanwhile five or seven girls - sportswomen whose chumps and other parts of the body the readers of glossy magazines could observe - hardly.


The logic of development (degradation) of present Russian authority will lead to inevitable washing away significant in the slightest degree persons from real policy both state and officially-oppositional. The total-party system when even the Nobel winner or national actor can be pegged on elections having only licked all places to party chiefs has this only logic of development.


This logic demands formation of radical opposition party (irrespectively of the fact if the Ministry of Justice would recognize it or not) which will struggle for all authority entirely. Such party will appear in already coming new year, moreover, processes of its formation already take place in different points of political space of the country. It will produce its claims already in summer and will start working actively in autumn. The forecast is those. Only the forecast - no statements. But if each housewife before official elections knows, how many percents future president Medvedev will get, why not to have forecast about the force which will resist to the future president?
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