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Ivanov Will Repeat Putin’s Destiny, Medvedev – Kasyanov’s one and Putin himself – Eltsin’s?..

Ivanov Will Repeat Putin’s Destiny, Medvedev – Kasyanov’s one and Putin himself – Eltsin’s?..

As journalist Michael Tulsky has recently informed referring to not mentioned Kremlin sources of "Arguments of the Week", resignation of the government of M. Fradkov is being planned n the beginning of September. At that the following figures could become the candidates on the post of new prime-minister the first vice-premiers S.Ivanov and D.Medvedev, the president of Joint Stock Company "RZHD" Yakunin or manager general of Rosoboroneksport S. Chemezov. "Thus new prime minister will not obligatory become the successor of V.Putin on a post of the President of the Russian Federation", the journalist informs.


This time campaign "Successor" will follow absolutely different scheme, not like the one that it followed in 1999. Now the future president will head the pre-election list of "Edinaya Russia" (ЕR) and during promotion of the party in power the accent will be made on popularization of the leader of its list that is on "successor". The head of the list of ER, as "Arguments of the Week" has repeatedly written, S.Ivanov. It will be declared before the congress of ER on October, 2nd. That is in a month after resignation of the government. This month will be given to mass media to give a lot of comments having attracted everybody's attention to the congress of ER. Due to it ER will have 45% on the elections of December, 2, meanwhile put forward on the State Duma victory S.Ivanov in March, 2008 - will get not less than 55% already in the first round.


From editorial board: This version is interesting, by the way. Certainly, it's only a version, just because of the reason that only one "source in the Kremlin" can know such things - V.V.Putin. Already such authoritative sources as Medvedev or Ivanov do not guarantee full concurrence. And if to speck about someone more plain, even if it is very influential figure can give only versions. Only one person can appoint in Russia the successor. And it will be he who will make a decision on mechanisms of this appointment. Everything else - is just the variants of the decision which can be proposed to the first figure but only he can make the decision. Today the final decision is not made and nobody could "know" more than Putin knows, if only he doesn't take upon himself the function of the God.


I want to note that similar schemes of transfer of authority can be carried out, firstly, only in absolutely not democratic country (that really corresponds to the state of affairs in Russia); secondly, they can be carried out only inside of the rallied ruling clan (that also is present in Russia); and thirdly - only at full and absolute trust of members of a ruling clique to each other.


And here, it's clear as the blue sky, there are questions. I think, first of all it is Vladimir Vladimirovich's questions. I also believe, that absence of definiteness in the decision of a question on successor's appointment is directly connected with a credibility gap inside of a ruling clan. Having accepted once and for ever some certain decision, Putin becomes the hostage of the choice. Putin wishes to guess, Putin is afraid to miscalculate. Apparently, he already does not trust to anybody, except for his Labrador but in fact it can't be appointed...

The matter is that an Ivanov's appointment as the successor and Medvedev's retaining as "the successor of the successor" is almost perfect from the point of view of administrative point of view. And this very perfectness should seem to be suspicious.


Putin created the system (or System created Putin) at which neither institutes of civil society, nor political structures, nor the West can act as guarantors of any arrangements. In reality the System can not be influenced by anything but itself. And Putin thinks, whether on the next coil he would appear not inside, but outside the System as, for example, Michael Kasyanov who was at Yeltsin fudged a role of "the successor of the successor". The same way president Ivanov will have own and not foreign successor - that is the logic of the System.


As to the reception by ER of 45% - so in fact the figure smaller than mentioned is not a threat - the "Kazakhstan" variant is a threat to the Kremlin when ER will receive 85%. Then an appointment of the successor becomes absolute appointment and it will be clear to everybody. And then the successor should prove that it's not so - that means he will have categorically to tear with Putin. Ivanov is capable of it, he in general is capable of making a deed. It also should, at face value, frighten Putin.

However, we have to wait just a little. Everything will become clear soon.

Anatoly Baranov, chief editor of FORUM.msk
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